主题：【原创】如果通用汽车破产 -- 晨枫
家园 其实这是有过很多推演的 有很多事情都是GM想做而做不了的。Wall Street一直有想法把GM给拆了。只要GM能把退休金给减掉一部分。关掉一部分老旧的厂子，赚钱应该不是一个很难的事儿。
家园 确实如此，很多以前不能做的事情，现在可以借破产保护做了 难怪奥巴马坚持要通用破产，这像截肢，拖不下去了。不过被截掉的部分就要萎缩、坏死了。
家园 晨大是不是该写续篇了 我看了下媒体，貌似大家都把通用破产当喜事报道的，美股也飙升以示庆祝，通用的CFO说这是公司一生难得一遇的机会。。。
我算是糊涂了，美国人是真乐观还是脑子烧晕了啊？
家园 汽车制造企业的破产对美国企业债市场会有什么样的影响？ 家园 影响很大 具体的我也说不好。
家园 【文摘】CDS和通用汽车破产 刚看到一篇短文。
Role of credit default swaps debated in GM's bankruptcy risk
文章提到GM避免破产现在面临的两大困难：持有CDS的对冲基金，和如何让九成的债主签字。
About $2.7 billion of the $28 billion in existing GM bonds are backed by such swaps, a form of insurance that investors buy to protect against defaults or other adverse "credit events." In GM's case, these swaps would presumably entitle large institutional bondholders to be paid in full in the event of a GM default. Therefore, those big bondholders would likely keep their bonds and watch GM go bankrupt rather than trade the bonds for stock in a new GM that's 89% owned by Uncle Sam and the UAW.Or so the logic goes.
27亿美元的债券有CDS担保，基金们有让GM破产的冲动。
But Tim Backshall, chief strategist for Credit Derivatives Research, doesn't see credit default swaps triggering a GM bankruptcy. Yes, Backshall told me, there are $2.7 billion of GM swaps outstanding, "but that's not quite as hairy as it sounds."If speculators were trying to make money by trading swaps to bet on the odds of a GM bankruptcy, Backshall said, they would have cashed out long ago. And depending on the premiums paid for the remaining swaps, investors might not have much to gain from a default. Maybe a stock-for-bonds swap might be attractive, especially if GM and the U.S. Treasury sweeten the current offer, which GM said is equivalent to about 11 cents on the dollar.
对此有人不同意，认为通用的CDS价格近来一直很高，即使通用破产，靠买卖CDS也赚不到多少钱。还不如债转股来的划算。
A much greater obstacle to completing a bond exchange by the June 1 deadline for GM to prove its viability and preserve its lifeline of federal loans, Backshall said, is the sheer logistical challenge of rounding up hundreds of small investors to trade GM bonds for future equity."I think it's crazy," he said. "To expect the bondholders to find every mom and pop that has a GM bond and get 90% of them to agree is, I think, incredibly aggressive."
而另一个困难是让多达九成的人签字同意，在实际操作上也很难做到。
最后，
Still, there remains a possibility that bankruptcy can be averted. "There's going to be a better deal for bondholders somehow," Backshall said.In other words, there might yet be an offer they can't refuse.
奥巴马=教父？！
家园 这样的CDS属于金融破坏而不是金融服务 因为这样的CDS保证了人们企业破产的收益，使得人们放心的采取让企业破产的行为，这不是建设性的服务，而是破坏性的服务
家园 是啊，一面是包赔的CDS，一面是保赔的债转股 选择不难做出。奥巴马有什么行政手段可用呢？不认CDS是不行的，到时候只能往AIG继续灌钱。
家园 奥巴马把CDS吃下来就解决问题了 搞“债转股”纯粹是在异想天开。真搞“债转股”，如果通用还是破产，股票的清偿顺序可是排在最后头的。
其实奥巴马政府连印钞票都干了，直接印钱把 CDS 吃下来不就什么问题都解决了。要什么行政手段。
问题是奥巴马政府根基不稳。他本人又没魄力。真这么干，他有担心别人指责他浪费纳税人的钱之类的。呵呵。