五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:新的铁幕 -- 晨枫

共:💬190 🌺409 🌵1
分页树展主题 · 全看首页 上页
/ 13
下页 末页
      • 家园 PIGS,太绝了!

        这四国退出欧元区已经传得沸沸扬扬了,东欧还在哭着嚷着要进欧元区,最头疼的是德国,都把德国当冤大头了,谁都想来打劫一把。

        • 家园 已经有推出欧元区的传言了?

          这也太戏剧化了...

        • 家园 【文摘】Do BRICs Eat PIGS?

          看到老广的贴子,想起上个月读到的文章,特摘录如下:

          When the euro was introduced about ten years ago, the pessimists didn't give it much chance of reaching its tenth anniversary. The euro, or so the argument went, was doomed from the outset because of the wide spread in economic performance and discipline amongst the member countries. At one end you had, and still have, the highly disciplined, but also slow growing, economies of Germany and the Netherlands. At the other end you find the faster growing but poorly disciplined countries such as Spain and Greece. As icing on the cake, you also had, and still have, countries that lack in both departments, such as Italy, making it difficult for the union to 'gel' – well, according to sceptics.

          There is admittedly an embedded weakness in the way the European currency union is structured. In the United States, arguably that largest currency union in the world, fiscal transfers between member states allow for the federal government to adjust for variances in economic performances. There is no such mechanism within the euro zone, which explains why the member states are subjected to a number of rules1. These rules require for everyone to exercise a high level of economic discipline. The problem is that there is little or no such discipline.

          The best example is the huge spread in the rise of unit labour costs over the past few years. Unit labour costs measure labour (wage) costs adjusted for changes in productivity. It is probably the best measure that exists in terms of tracking the changes in competitiveness between nations. When the Stability and Growth Pact behind the euro was established, there was no reference made to unit labour costs which, with the benefit of hindsight, was a major mistake. Even Jean-Claude Trichet, the Head of the European Central Bank, who rarely admits mistakes, has publicly stated that if he could design the currency union all over again, he would push for a unit labour cost stability pact.

          Back to the sceptics. What they failed to realise was that Europe, together with the rest of the world, was about to enter a period of unprecedented prosperity. The good times would not only gloss over the deeper problems, but the euro would actually go from strength to strength to a point where it now threatens to unseat the US dollar as the premier reserve currency of the world. It is therefore perhaps a mystery to some of you, why one should question the longer term viability of the euro. That is nevertheless what I intend to do.

          The problem, as I have already alluded to, is poor discipline amongst several of the member states. Ever heard of the four PIGS? This less than flattering acronym stands for Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain, four members of the euro zone which are all in much deeper trouble than they are prepared to admit. They are often considered the 'antidote' to the BRIC countries, the fast growing emerging market economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China. Let's take a closer look at the unit labour cost index for various countries (see table 1).

          Table 1: 2007 Unit Labour Cost Index (2000=100)

          点看全图

          外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

          Notes: *2006. PIGS countries in bold. Source: http://stats.oecd.org/

          Since the introduction of the euro, the PIGS have failed miserably to keep up with Germany on this measure of competitiveness. So has Ireland by the way, hence its current predicament. On the other hand, Brazil (the only BRIC country which the OECD reports unit labour costs on) scores very well on this account, a fact which is not going to make life any easier for the PIGS.

          EU countries outside the euro zone, such as the UK, have also lost out to Germany in recent years, but the UK has been able to play a card which is not at the disposal of the euro zone members. That card is called devaluation. Whether by design or otherwise, the UK has received a massive boost to its competitiveness in recent months as a result of the sharp fall in the value of the pound. Italy used to play this card repeatedly back in the days of the Lira. So did countries like Denmark in the dark days of the 1970s.

          Back in those days there was less economic integration and recessions were rarely global. Devaluations could therefore be used to stimulate exports. The situation today is fundamentally different. The global nature of the current crisis makes it far more difficult for any country to grow its way out through higher exports. The UK will offer a great case study to test whether devaluations are still a powerful tool.

          ...]

    • 家园 没有纳粹就好,其他的爱怎么折腾由他们去吧

      就怕第三次也是最后一次的大战发源地还是欧洲。也只有欧洲有资格当这个策源地了。

    • 家园 对于小国西欧可能还是会救

      目前看波罗的海三国和保加利亚得到救助的可能性最大。乌克兰估计没人管他了,不过其他的国家最后肯定还是会援助一把,毕竟那些钱也都是西欧银行投进去的

    • 家园 东欧需要一次失败!

      反省一下自己!

    • 家园 夸大了夸大了,东欧人揍是喜欢夸张,顶多是个铝箔幕

      要钱这个事,不是由东欧的主观意志决定的……越是穷来越是要,按原来那个要法,越是要来越是穷……

      东欧还要继续向西欧乞讨要钱的,一百年啊一百年!

      一百年后呢?西欧也木钱了,还要个鬼啊。

分页树展主题 · 全看首页 上页
/ 13
下页 末页


有趣有益,互惠互利;开阔视野,博采众长。
虚拟的网络,真实的人。天南地北客,相逢皆朋友

Copyright © cchere 西西河