主题：【原创】《李锅35》MAYDAY (一) -- 本嘉明
家园 那个财富民族是犹太人吧 不过现在好像一点也看不出美国打算牺牲他们的迹象嘛。
家园 一些军事消息的解读 从中国反导成功后,美国进行反导失败了.
1月份美国就开始筹备奋进号上天,这个时候俄罗斯军方突然发出一个声明----大意是警告美国不要往天上带不该带的东西.
在美国反导失败后,美国军方推出了一个对中国的作战计划(具体可搜索某些军坛中军方发贴人的发言,比如家族的),同时准备了2月3日的激光反导实验,报道实验成功了.于是接下来美军方又做了两次激光实验.
而这几天传的中国遥感卫星消息,具报道说是在2月4日,也就是在美第一次激光试验之后,在奋进号上天之前(奋进是2月8日上天)
这说明,遥感卫星肯定是中国动作的.相关军坛也有技术分析.
两者结合我们就应该明白,是我们的激光!
太多太多的新闻天天都在变化着,各方态度同时都在调整着,
这是一个微妙的时期!
PS
戴旭的发言有那么差吗?
看到论坛中的一些大牛对他的评论,肯定是偏颇了.
而现在国内网络大肆删除戴旭的发言,这是什么现象?什么目的?
再看看现在某些某些专家学者的发言,什么中美谁离不开谁的,什么中国要低头发展别制造矛盾,什么小平同志说要100年不变,呵呵
真的好笑啊
家园 戴旭的发言有那么差吗? 不要往多了想，技术上很烂，思想上不烂。逻辑很错，空话太多。一个上尉这么说就八了，作为一个上校就太烂了。TG军官的素质让人担心。
家园 如果伊核投弃权票 这个可能是存在的.
条件:
1.中国在最近的军事软交手中完全处于劣势（类似现在的反导交手）
２.俄罗斯和欧洲不采取现在打酱油的态度而是改变为强力干扰中国在伊核上运做的态度，这些状况综合起来出现对中国非常不利的局势时．
3.伊朗不听中国的话.
比如最近中国各种官方和非官方的媒体上的发言,
伊朗核问题 西方一味蛮横必定害人害己
http://world.people.com.cn/GB/57507/10997825.html
伊朗一味强硬，必定悲剧收场
http://world.people.com.cn/GB/157578/10998137.html
这就是中国准备要把伊核与以核挂在一起去解决.
否则,中国肯定就要为伊朗出头的.
当投弃权票时中国可能面对的状况
１.全世界在经济政治上对中国的围堵．
２.中国盟友离中国而去
３.台湾这个筹码在美国手里更重，并被全世界国家都去运用．
４.在世界国家的推动下，台湾可能出现独立．
５.如果中国还象从前那样用钱去买关系，代价将更高
６.国内一些势力借着全世界对中国的压力，去颠覆中共．
先列举这些
我为什么说对台湾一定要狠，包括用核武器．
原因：
在中美军事出现冲突时，绝对不能让周遍国家的军队跟着美国人打酱油．
如果他们出现打酱油参与中美军事冲突的动作，中国对他们不要用常规武器，直接上核蛋敲他们，否则战事越拖对中国越被动！
这样的动作，是中国向世界表明，现在的事情只是中美两国的事．别国无权插手．
我发现现在很多朋友都认为美国现在想在全世界掠夺一圈，去添窟窿，感觉中国只要避免被宰割就可以了．其实这个想法很天真！
美国背后的目的绝对不是如此．
个人感觉这次美国的真正精英们是在为做着彻底改变美国而计划行动的．即使改变不成，那掠夺的目标就是两个最大的，第一是中国人，
第二是犹太人．
因为只有这样，美国才能挺过下面几年的难关．
最后
我们不要幻想了！
家园 谢宝！ 送花得宝！
恭喜：你意外获得【通宝】一枚鲜花已经成功送出，可通过工具取消
提示：此次送花为此次送花为【有效送花赞扬，涨乐善、声望】。
家园 欧元的问题 确实有点像铁索连舟，放火一烧就很麻烦。但我还是不太相信欧元区内部会将欧元重新按区域划分等级，那样的话对欧元的信用损害太大，相当于直接判了死刑。还不如直接让希腊踢出去来得干脆。
问个问题。中国九成的人口分布在东部和南部约一半的国土面积上，那西北部主要是缺水，还是土地质量不够好？
- 复 欧元的问题
家园 缺水 - 复 欧元的问题
家园 这个是回复楼下parishg 的 下次你再说“We Chinese as a whole” blablabla 什么的，最好把主语换成第一人称单数。
- 复 欧元的问题
家园 please read my recent post we, chinese as a whole, is short on historical knowledge in finance. Europe and america offer many useful lessons.
- 复 欧元的问题
家园 yes 欧元的问题，小本的建议，属于脱裤子放屁，多此一举。这类主意，德国会不大感冒，
法国则可能相当热衷。
目前的欧元区，等于是一艘超载的帆船，在惊涛骇浪中，船长说：“人太多，要沉
了。”，把希腊踢出，等于是抓住最弱小乘客的脚，丢进海里。其他乘客，难免心
有戚戚，上了这贼船，岂不倒楣？
小本的做法，是给希腊套个救生圈，用根绳连上，然后丢进海里，浮者自浮，沉者
自沉，就看你的身体壮不壮，造化够不够。等风头过去，再拉绳拽回来。这算是仁
至义尽，对得起你，也不至于寒了大家的心。当然比赤膊丢去，要麻烦得多，但将
来有个翻盘的机会，这样希腊的欧元，可以算是植物人，但法律上尚未死亡不是？
真要这样做，其他细节，都可以解决。比如在3月1日，德法同时宣布，以0时为准，
凡存在德法银行的存款，视为核心欧元；德法境内居民不论合法非法居留，翻检自
己的现金，在4月1日前去银行，将非德法发行的欧元，等值换为新币。而中国，伊
朗等国持有的欧元储备，则有ECB(欧洲央行)出面，谈判一个双方接受的折扣，比如
按92%，一次转换为核心欧元，毕竟这好过欧元解散，你变一张废纸。如果是欧元企
业债券，当然以企业注册地为准。
至于已流到德法境外的德法欧元现金，要如何处理，就看德法的一念之慈了。
区别在于，把EU看作一条大船，但拆去了所有水密隔舱；还是十几条铁环连接的小
船。法国可能倾向于前者。
- 复 yes
家园 further support to you You seem to be a financial professional.
The U.S. in 1933: A blueprint for how euro rift could heal
Historical crisis holds lessons for why avoiding a collapse is paramount
By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- From debt-racked Greece to economic powerhouse Germany, leaders across the euro zone insist that the monetary union that now encompasses 16 nations is here to stay -- even as strains over some countries' finances in Southern Europe send bond prices plummeting and propel the dollar higher.
But what if the euro did collapse?
The near-collapse of the dollar in 1933, and its subsequent recovery, can offer a blueprint for recovery should it happen that the euro breaks up, according to a research note from UBS. See related story on the euro.
Oil Volatile But Floating Storage Disappearing
It's been a choppy, uncertain week for crude and, while there's still ample supply of physical oil globally, stocks are starting to draw down. North Sea Forties floating storage has dropped to zero.
Paul Donovan, a London-based economist, reiterated the house belief that the euro won't break up. The reason, in his view: the costs of breaking up far exceed the benefits.
But Donovan pointed to the dollar's woes in the early 1930s as well as to the Czech-Slovak monetary union collapse as offering parallels with the current crisis in Europe.
The dollar never actually formally ceased to function back in the 1930s. But states began declaring dollar holidays, and companies began transferring deposits from local banks to New York lenders.
Indeed, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago had even refused to lend to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
'What the U.S experience demonstrates is that a monetary union can effectively fracture, and then come back together, if policy makers are committed enough to creating a viable, cohesive monetary policy.'
Paul Donovan, UBS
"Depositors were effectively signaling that a dollar in New York was worth more than a dollar in Michigan," Donovan said. This happened even as the New York Fed lowered its bill purchase rate to 0.5%.
The way the monetary union was repaired came about as a result of three factors: through a reorganization of the Fed in 1935, fiscal transfers and increased geographic mobility.
"What the U.S experience demonstrates is that a monetary union can effectively fracture, and then come back together, if policy makers are committed enough to creating a viable, cohesive monetary policy," Donovan said.
Similarly, the Czechs and the Slovaks underwent strains when their monetary union broke apart in 1993, in the aftermath of the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, Donovan said.
A Slovak crown was supposed to be worth the same as a Czech crown, but bank depositors took their money out of Slovak institutions and put them in Czech lenders.
What those countries did was impose limits on money withdrawn and restrict gaps in their currencies to, effectively, 10%, by anchoring them to the European Currency Unit, predecessor of the euro.
The result, unlike with the U.S., was the creation of two currencies, but it happened with little economic disruption, Donovan said.
The euro also isn't an optimal currency area, not just as economies are absorbing the current credit crunch very differently but also because there's little labor mobility or wage flexibility.
Fiscal policy -- or as Donovan headlines a subtitle, "Germans should pay for Greek pensions" -- offers a way out.
"Wealthier areas should, indeed must subsidize those parts of the monetary union that are at an economic disadvantage. Fiscal transfers are the price that has to be paid for a monetary union of any meaningful size," the economist wrote.
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- 复 yes
家园 “核心欧元”的建议没有可行性 欧洲就那么巴掌大的地方，这个政策一宣布，周围国家的人马上带上自己的欧元跑到德法去换了
- 复 yes
家园 如果这样子 欧元大跌 美元大涨？
- 复 欧元的问题
家园 还不如直接让希腊踢出去来得干脆。 bad proposal--will bring in immediate kill--consensus among experts.
His proposal above is quite good, actually.