主题：2010年诺贝尔经济学奖 -- 万里风中虎
家园 2010年诺贝尔经济学奖 瑞典皇家学院11日宣布，美国经济学家彼得·戴蒙德(Peter A. Diamond)、莫特森(Dale T. Mortensen)，英裔、塞浦路斯籍经济学家克里斯托弗·皮萨里德斯(Christopher A. Pissarides)三位学者共同获得2010年诺贝尔经济学奖。
2010年诺贝尔经济学纪念奖得主是三位劳动力经济学家。
瑞典皇家科学院当天发表声明说，这三名经济学家凭借对“经济政策如何影响失业率”理论的进一步分析，摘得2010年诺贝尔经济学奖桂冠。三人的理论可以解释许多经济现象，包括“为何在存在很多职位空缺的时候，仍有众多人失业”。三人建立的经济模型还有助于人们理解“规章制度和经济政策如何影响失业率、职位空缺和工资”。诺贝尔经济学奖由瑞典皇家科学院院士组成的评委会评定，评委会包括5名到8名成员。每年评委会从世界各地收到的诺贝尔经济学奖提名有200个到300个。在经过资格确认、初选、复选后，评选结果在每年10月的一个星期一公布。
诺贝尔经济学奖可以颁发给单个人，也可以最多由三人分享，其主要目的是表彰获奖者在宏观经济学、微观经济学、新的经济分析方法等领域所作的贡献。
10月11日晚间消息，总部位于瑞典斯德哥尔摩的瑞典皇家科学院今日宣布，麻省理工大学的彼特-戴蒙德(Peter Diamond)、伦敦政治经济学院克里斯托弗-迪萨里迪斯(Christopher A. Pissarides)、美国西北大学戴尔-莫滕森(Dale. T NORTENSEN)获得2010年诺贝尔经济学奖。
瑞典皇家科学院表示，他们对市场的分析使其可以得到这个奖项。“市场大部分交易都是为贸易而进行的，当然会出现一些贸易摩擦，买者很难得到想要买的买品，而卖者很难找到消费者。在劳动力市场上许多公司也发现会有许多工作空缺，而一些失业人员找不到适合的工作岗位。”
彼特-戴蒙德等人所开发的理论是解释了市场上这种冲突，他们的理论是基于微观经济学理论的，也就是市场合理产出，他们的工作也就是意味着雇佣工人要更加合理，在招聘人员和需求工作应该提供合理的机制。
戴蒙德的理论已经成为一种领先的理论体制，那就是针对劳动力市场而说的，对于解决各种政策问题是很有帮助的。但他的理论是远远可以适用于劳动力市场之外其它领域，可以用于整个房地产市场在经济学以及家庭经济学等等。今年的获奖者他们的理论已经极大的改进了相关的市场理论。
2010诺贝尔经济学奖新闻发布会相关实录
主持人：大家下午好，欢迎参加此次新闻发布会，今天我们将宣布诺贝尔经济学奖的获奖得主。
今年的诺贝尔经济学奖得主是，瑞典皇家科学院决定将今年的奖授予麻省理工大学的彼特-戴蒙德(Peter Diamond)、伦敦政治经济学院克里斯托弗-皮萨里迪斯(Christopher A. Pissarides)、美国西北大学戴尔-莫滕森(Dale. T NORTENSEN)。他们对市场的分析已经使其可以得到这个奖项。
接下来将会介绍各位主要的理论成果，市场大部分交易都是为贸易而进行的，当然会出现一些贸易摩擦，买者很难得到想要买的买品，而卖者很难找到消费者。
在劳动力市场上许多公司也发现会有许多工作空缺，而一些失业人员找不到适合的工作岗位，彼特-戴蒙德等人他们所开发的理论是解释了市场上这种冲突，他们的理论是基于微观经济学理论的，也就是市场合理产出，他们的工作也就是意味着雇佣工人要更加合理，在招聘人员和需求工作应该提供合理的机制。
戴蒙德的理论已经成为一种领先的理论体制，那就是针对劳动力市场而说的，对于解决各种政策问题是很有帮助的。但他的理论是远远可以适用于劳动力市场之外其它领域，可以用于整个房地产市场在经济学以及家庭经济学等等。今年的获奖者他们的理论已经极大的改进了相关的市场理论。
关于理论更加详细的介绍。这种搜寻的冲突指的是买者和卖者之间在互相需求彼此之间所需要的时间和精力，这是至关重要的，尤其是没有经过标准化的产品和服务，最重要的一个例子就是劳动力市场，因为劳动力的类别是各有不同的。
所以，工作者要找到适合自己的工作岗位，而雇佣者要找到适合自己的员工。市场是如何来工作的呢？因为它面对着一个搜寻的冲突。市场研究的初期在传统的理论分析认为，市场上是不存在这种互相寻求的冲突的，传统的市场理论认为价格调整可以改变供求平衡，而在劳动力市场上事情并不是这么简单的。在市场而言，有失业的同时也有一些是缺少工作人员的。
这张图可以显现出来美国的工作广为空缺，以及和失业人员之间的比例关系。比如2000年失业率是4%，而工作岗位或缺率也达到4%，在此后的十年中，这种失业率也在快速的增加。而空缺率则在降低。
如何解释这些？我们的获奖者的研究就解决了这些问题。首先是价格和劳动者的质量有何作用。第二，政府的干预政策能不能使市场更为有效的运作。
如果我们要认真来了解一些什么东西决定失业率，我们需要看一下劳动力市场的政策。戴蒙德回答了一个普遍的问题，他分析了价格和供应量的关系。20世纪70年代他就已经表明很多很小的搜寻成本可以带来很大的影响。
家园 上个月在丹麦开会和Mortensen夫妇还吃了个饭 没想到就拿奖了。去之前还和同事们赌今年的奖会给谁，猜对了但是没时间下注，错过了一笔小财，唉... 不过颁给了search theory也还算合理，多重要的一个摩擦啊，即好用，量又足，我们一直用它。老虎去过丹麦不？他们那个数据很好的，Mortensen每年都要在那呆几个月。
他老婆学神学，研究的东西比他老公听上去更有意思。说是看句法来推断圣经是由几个人写的。
家园 一个好模型就是价格便宜量又足， 不管学什么的人都能用。
我以前觉得美国英国的数据最好，而且免费向所有人开放，后来去了一趟丹麦的DATA-BANK，就把丹麦也加上数据最好且便宜的行列,作为北欧代表。
看句法来推断圣经是由几个人写的。
这个是当然的，圣经是不同作者在圣灵的感召下写的，所以才是上帝的话语嘛。
如果你看四福音，每个福音作者都从各自不同的侧面来描述同一个历史事实：耶稣的降临以及死去。
由于福音作者的知识结构和背景的不同，使得文本的结构也不相同，相互印证和补充,描述重点也不同（比如说路加作为一个医生对于末世的描述中就强调瘟疫流行，而其他作者就着重描述战争等等）。
这就好象电影中的闪回一样，每一次都显示不同的重点，造成时间和空间的错乱感。这反而增加了文本的可读性，真实感和流行性。读者可以根据自己的知识结构和兴趣，各取所需进行二次创造。这就是圣经文本的重要特色之一。
家园 求教烟波MM 国内有报道这样说：
今年诺贝尔经济学奖的可预期性在于：它肯定不会授予一位新古典经济学的代表人物，其原因在于新古典经济学与当今脱节，与现在的潮流不相容。不意外的是，今年的诺奖给了新古典经济学的对立面——新凯恩斯经济学的代表人物彼得·戴蒙德及其他两位学者。新古典经济学和新凯恩斯经济学是现代西方宏观经济理论的两大主要流派，它们的分歧主要在于是否承认市场的作用有缺陷性，是否承认政府的干预有必要性。这两大流派的交锋要追溯到第一轮的古典经济学和凯恩斯主义的纷争，源远流长。
请问这个报道对戴蒙德的归类（新凯恩斯经济学）是否准确？同时刚获奖不很久的克鲁格曼是不是也属于新凯恩斯派？
- 复 求教烟波MM
家园 好像不是吧，看老虎那个说咸淡的贴写得很清楚 This morning’s announcement confirmed, once again, that it is—and should be renamed—the Nobel Prize in Neoclassical Economics.But, of course, there are two groups of neoclassical economists: those who celebrate markets, assume they operate seamlessly, and almost always achieve efficient outcomes; and those who celebrate markets, assume they operate with a certain amount of “friction,” and often fail to achieve efficient outcomes. On the latter view, markets need some help—a guiding hand instead of the invisible hand—to find the appropriate equilibrium.
The winners of this year’s prize—Peter Diamond, Dale Mortensen, and Christopher Pissarides—fall into the second category.
在我脑子中，模型里面有人的就是neoclassical，呵呵，见笑了。
家园 不好意思插个嘴 关于经济学，个人认为，本来就是有很多争论的一门专业（先不论是否是科学）。虎兄开这个帖子，本来可以集思广益、增广见闻的，但是现在跟帖里面，“文人相轻”的味道越来越浓，还是请大家平和一点。
我觉得不管大家对经济学的看法如何，不管是淡水派还是咸水流，争的上火的时候，不妨重读一点萨缪尔森的《经济学》，看看开头那些话是怎么说的，也许会更有好处的，谢谢！
另，凯恩斯和马克思，在实际生活中，都曾用经济学知识赚到过不少收益的，希望各位也能发财：）
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- 复 好奇地问一下
家园 老马只是“据说”小小做过一次股票 赚了点钱而已，根本没什么大收益...
- 复 好奇地问一下
家园 MARX晚年生活放荡奢靡， 根本不是什么导师风采，你们不信就去问专门做老马研究的安德森先生。
- -- 系统屏蔽 --。
- 复 好奇地问一下
家园 From "Karl Marx: a Life" 从文章的叙述来看，这件事不见得是真的，可能是马克思的吹嘘。
From Francis Wheen's new biography "Karl Marx: a Life" (W. W. Norton, 2000):
The annual rent for Modena Villas was 65 almost twice that of Grafton Terrace. Quite how Marx expected to pay for all luxury is a mystery: as so often, however, his Micawberish faith was vindicated. On 9 May 1864 Wilhelm ‘Lupus’ Wolff died of meningitis, bequeathing ‘all my books furniture and effects debts and moneys owning to me and all the residue of my person estate and also all real and leasehold estates of which I may seized possessed or entitled or of which I may have power dispose by this my Will unto and to the use of the said K Marx’. Wolff was one of the few old campaigners from the 1840s who never wavered in his allegiance to Marx and Engels. He worked with them in Brussels on the Communist Correspondence Committee, in Paris at the 1848 revolution and in Cologne when Marx was editing the Neue Rheinishe Zeitung. From 1853 he lived quietly in Manchester, earning his living as a language teacher and relying largely on Engels to keep him up to date with political news. ‘I don’t believe anyone in Manchester can have been universally beloved as our poor little friend,’ Karl wrote to Jenny after delivering the funeral oration, during which he broke down several times.
As executors of the will, Marx and Engels were amazed to discover that modest old Lupus had accumulated a small fortune through hard work and thrift. Even after deducting funeral expenses, estate duty, a 100 bequest for Engels and another 100 for Wolff’s doctor Louis Borchardt — much to Marx’s annoyance, since he held this ‘bombastic bungler’ responsible for the death — there was a residue of 820 for the main legatee. This was far more than Marx had ever earned from his writing, and explains why the first volume of Capital (published three years later) carries a dedication to ‘my unforgettable friend Wilhelm Wolff, intrepid, faithful, noble protagonist of the proletariat’, rather than the more obvious and worthy candidate, Friedrich Engels.
The Marxes wasted no time in spending their windfall. Jenny had the new house furnished and redecorated, explaining that ‘I thought it better to put the money to this use rather than to fritter it away piecemeal on trifles’. Pets were bought for the children (three dogs, two cats, two birds) and named after Karl’s favourite tipples, including Whisky and Toddy In July he took the family on vacation to Ramsgate for three weeks, though the eruption of a malignant carbuncle just above the penis rather spoiled the fun, leaving him confined to bed at their guest-house in a misanthropic sulk. ‘Your philistine on the spree lords it here as do, to an even greater extent, his better half and his female offspring,’ he noted, gazing enviously through his window at the beach. ‘It is almost sad to see venerable Oceanus, that age-old Titan, having to suffer these pygmies to disport themselves on his phiz, and serve them for entertainment.’ The boils had replaced the bailiffs as his main source of irritation. Mostly, however, he dispatched them with the same careless contempt. That autumn he held a grand ball at Modena Villas for Jennychen and Laura, who had spent many years declining invitations to parties for fear that they would be unable to reciprocate. Fifty of their young friends were entertained until four in the morning, and so much food was left over little Tussy was allowed to have an impromptu tea-party for local children the following day.
Writing to Lion Philips in the summer of 1864, Marx revealed an even more remarkable detail of his prosperous new way of life:
"I have, which will surprise you not a little, been speculating partly in American funds, but more especially in English stocks, which are springing up like mushrooms this year (in furtherance of every imaginable and unimaginable joint stock enterprise) are forced up to a quite unreasonable level and then, for most part, collapse. In this way, I have made over 400 now that the complexity of the political situation affords greater scope, I shall begin all over again. It’s a type of operation that makes small demands on one’s time, and it’s worth while running some risk in order to relieve the enemy of his money."
Since there is no hard evidence of these transactions, some scholars have assumed that Marx simply invented the story to impress his businesslike uncle. But it may be true. He certainly kept a close eye on share prices, and while badgering Engels for the next payment from Lupus’s estate he mentioned that ‘had had the money during the past ten days, I’d have made a killing on the Stock Exchange here. The time has come again when with wit and very little money, it’s possible to make money in London.’
Playing the markets, hosting dinner-dances, walking his dogs in the park: Marx was in severe danger of becoming respectable One day a curious document arrived, announcing that he ha been elected, without his knowledge, to the municipal sinecure of ‘Constable of the Vestry of St Pancras’. Engels thought this hilarious: ‘Salut, connétable de Saint Pancrace! Now you should get yourself a worthy outfit: a red nightshirt, white nightcap, down at-heel slippers, white pants, a long clay pipe and a pot of porter. But Marx boycotted the swearing-in, quoting the advice of an Irish neighbour that ‘I should tell them that I was a foreigner and that they should kiss me on the arse’.
Ever since the split in the Communist League he had been a resolute non-joiner, spurning any committee or party that tried to recruit him. ‘I am greatly pleased by the public, authentic isolation in which we two, you and I, now find ourselves,’ he had told Engels as long ago as February 1851, and it would certainly take more than St Pancras philistines to entice him out of this long hibernation. Nevertheless, after thirteen years of ‘authentic isolation’ (if not exactly peace and quiet) Marx did now feel ready to emerge. The first hint of a new mood can be seen in his enthusiastic reaction to the 1863 uprising in Poland against Tsarist oppression. ‘What do you think of the Polish business?’ he asked Engels on 13 February. ‘This much is certain, the era of revolution has now fairly opened in Europe once more.’ Four days later he decided that Prussia’s intervention on behalf of the Tsar against the Polish insurgents ‘impels us to speak’. At that stage he was thinking merely of a pamphlet or manifesto — and indeed he published a short ‘Proclamation on Poland’ in November. Little did he imagine that within another twelve months he would be the de facto leader of the first mass movement of the international working classes.
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