主题：【讨论】和老外朋友谈茉莉花革命 -- 简裕

有个美国老头，曾是我们学校的外籍教师，回美国多年，依然保持联系，经常和我谈时事，刚收到他的电邮谈利比亚的事。我准备说说我对茉莉花革命的一些看法，大家提提意见。

就是我在这个帖子提到的老外：

链接出处

他的政治观点：支持伊拉克战争，强烈反对宗教。

我的拟回信，欢迎就观点或英文措辞提出指正：

我也一直在关注北非中东发生的事。不过让我觉得好玩的是本阿里和穆巴拉克虽然混蛋，但他们是美国养的混蛋，埃及还是中东第二大美援接收国。还让我觉得好玩的是君主制的巴林和沙特也发生骚乱，他们也是美国最好的朋友。你知道哪两个阿拉伯国家有选举吗？伊朗和巴勒斯坦。而美国不支持民选领导人。就算伊朗选举舞弊，哈马斯很极端，但他们比石油酋长的国家更民主。还有什么比这更讽刺的吗。

你一定读过易卜生的《玩偶之家》吧？娜拉终于离开了她丈夫，值得鼓掌。但故事就这样结束了吗？娜拉是不是从此过上了幸福的生活？

我们可以问这些北非国家同样的问题。革命和骚乱之后接下来是什么？上世纪在阿尔及利亚发生的事可以供今天的人参考。阿国独立后大部分时间都是军人政府。执政者努力限制宗教的影响并让社会世俗化，与此同时，经济却每况愈下。终于在80年代后期，在宗教领袖的煽动下，骚乱蔓延全国。政府被迫推行政治改革和多党选举（和现在的北非局势是不是很相似？）。猜猜谁最后赢得压倒性胜利？极端的伊斯兰拯救阵线。而军方中止了选举并取缔了伊阵。你应该猜得出西方国家政府选哪边站吧？

所以，美国政府要关注的是将要发生的事，而不是正在发生的事。要是又一个极端宗教政党上台了怎么办？

观察中国的局势也是很有趣的。

有个网站号召中国人与2月20号在各大城市的商业区示威。于是在北京最繁华的王府井，比你手指头还少的示威者表演了一下，被几百位外国记者围着拍照，被上千位买东西的人围观。“碰巧”美国大使出现了，被中国人认了出来，拍了下来。美国国务院说这只是一个“巧合”。下次你一定要投这个摩门教徒一票。

更有趣的是外国记者对所谓的“中国茉莉花革命”的公正报道。

接着我就把西霉的乌龙照片给他展示了一下。

I've been keeping updated on what's happening in North Africa and Middle East. What really amazes me is that though bastards, Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt are Americans' bastards, with Egypt in the Middle East receiving the second most millitary aids from America. What also amazed me is that the Monarchist Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, where there are also riots, are also Americans' closest friends. Do you know which 2 Arabian countries have elections? Iran and Palestine. But American government chose not to support the elected leaders. Well, there're frauds in Iran election and Hamas are extremists. But they are more democatic than oil-tycoon countries. Could it be more ironic?

Have you read the book of A Doll's House written by Ibsen, a Normagian Author? Nana ran away from her husband finally, which of course deserves heavy applause. But is it the end of the story? Did Nana lead a happy life ever after?

The same question can be asked about the future of those North African countries. What will happen next after the revolutions and riots? What happened in Algeria last century may teach a good lesson to people nowadays. For the most time after its independence, the millitary government ruled this country. The leaders had been trying to elimilate the influence of Islamism and secularize the society, while the economy bacame worse and worse.Finally in late 1980s, riots were encouraged by Religious leaders and spread the country. The millitary government was forced to persue political reforms and multi-party election(similiar to what's going on in North Africa). Guess who won the overwhelming majority? The extremist Islamic Salvation Front. The millitary then disrupted the election and banned the ISF. It is not difficult for you to guess which side the western government took.

So what will happen, rather than what's going on now, is really the concerns of America government.What if another Islam extremist organization come into power?

It is very funny to watch what's happening in China.

A website instigated Chinese prople to demonstrate in the downtown areas in big cities on Feb 20th(personally I guess it is Falungong who're instigating). Then in Wangfujing, Beijing's most prosperous down area, less than 10 protestors put on a show phtographed by hundreds of western journalist, and surrounded by thousands of shoppers. "Accidentally", the American ambasssdor, Jon Huntsman, appeared on the site, but recognized and videoed by a Chinese. Huntsman appearance was later claimed by American State Department to be a "coincidence". Hey, do give this Mormon a vote.

It is even more funny to watch how those foreign media reported the so called "China's jasmine revolution".

A Chinese website show us their impartial reports.

I hope you can reach this link:http://bbs.anti-cnn.com/thread-302149-1-1.html