主题：【整理】zt China helpEurope, AF -- parishg
家园 德国人故意的吧 以前有个方案是欧洲央行担保也让他们否了，又说不出钱。
诚心看着希腊死掉啊。。
家园 看来没谈拢 或者一个可能是德国人本身就希望其他国家烂掉。
家园 that's great news then let Europeans F* themselves to find out all the money to fill in the black holes. To be frank, China should NOT even lend one penny to them.
Those hypocrites. 即使中国和其他投资者不参与，我们已经做出的决定完全足以使我们能克服我们自己的债务危机
They deserve to fall from 2nd class nations to be 4th class nations in the world.
家园 鸟卫视在谈论借IMF的是人民币, 将来要还人民币. 家园 我也觉得有可能通过货币互换协议 来借钱，避开了必须抛美债的问题。中国提供人民币，欧盟给这个债券。一定程度上把人民币国际化，可以作为中欧贸易的结算货币之一。
如果像你说的到时候还人民币他们肯定不肯啊，人民币升值预期地球人都知道吧。到时候升个百分之十几，就赶上高利贷了。。
家园 if RMB is not freely exchang exchanged, WHERE Europeans can get money to pay back in RMB??
Q2. Given the large trade surplus China enjoyed against Europe, WHERE Europeans can get RMB to pay back loan in RMB?
If RMB is freely exchangeable under a set of new regime, then China is for sure to experience fast capital outflow. And China might soon face another financial crisis of itself.
It is catch-22 for China with this funny proposal. You should immediately figure out the proposer of this plan is brainless. The plan itself will make the system unstable at the beginning--and the default of loan almost 100% certain.
Historical comparison:
America lent money in USD to Europe after WWI and then depreciated USD in early 1930s. It enjoyed huge surplus against Europe in 1920s and early 1930 and is Europe's main creditor. BUT It passed special customs duty law to exclude European export from the US market.
Europeans asked Americans a simple question which signaled how self-contradictory Americans were: given that our export to the US market will be curtailed and we will NOT achieve net export to the US market, WHERE ARE WE GOING TO GET THE USD TO PAY back all the private and gov. loans?
Americans did not care about their self-contradiction and pushed Europeans to pay back debts, then in the end, Europe was pushed into another banking crisis in 1930s and finally ended up in war.
通宝推：本嘉明,家园 【商榷】借出的人民币其实就没准备被还过 至少10年内不会考虑归还， 这才是人民币借款的策划由来。
欧洲人知道欧元的信用是经不起一次放水的，真实版的人民币借出就现阶段来说不过是资产负债表中的一个操作而已。中国借出钱， 欧洲央行依据这一资产， 再利用杠杆原理给PIGS五国还上钱。实质是欧洲版的QE2.0， 不过这次拉中国一起背书。
至于还钱，假设金额为8000亿人民币，在10年后人民币国际化后再分10年还清， 这还是问题吗？
家园 Greeks can not even return their emergency aid to fellow Europeans.
You think those PIIGs Europeans will be able to return money to Chinese??
In the last 11 years, I remember the French gov. only had gov. fiscal surplus for 1 year--all other years, the budget is never balanced. France is still a AAA nation in Europe... You can figure out the case for other PIIGs by yourself.
在10年后人民币国际化后再分10年还清， 这还是问题吗？
--haha, it will not happen at all. You do not understand how democratic nations work. All politicians have tendency to spend money to buy votes. Fiscal discipline was imposed by the debt market, THERE IS NO SELF DISCIPLINE THROUGH THE democratic system itself.
借出的人民币其实就没准备被还过
--you are too generous. I feel lucky that you are not one of the top Chinese leaders.
I SUPPOSE ANY NORMAL CREDITORS WANT TO LEND MONEY AND COLLECT MONEY AND INTEREST BACK. I studied credit market for long time and your generosity really shocks me.
If you know that borrowers will default for sure, why do you even want to lend out?
家园 BUY GOLD, BUY COMMODITY, SPEND YOUR USD RESERVES TO BUY ANYTHING WHICH CAN IMPROVE AVERAGE CHINESE'S LIFE. Paper money has no economic benefits for average Joes.
I am NOT a fan to buy US gov. bonds at all. EVER SINCE 2005, ANY FURTHER INVESTMENT IN US GOV. BONDS ARE ALREADY QUITE STUPID. You should blame your fellow Chinese back in Beijing, not me for doing that stupid investment.
Right now, China gets its reserve stuck in USD or Euro assets. To be frank, it is a choice between two evils and none of them are ideal: Euro currency could die at any moment given the funny irreponsible behavior of those PIIGs nations; USD assets are not much better, but at least, the US treasury officials under Hank and Tim and Fed chairman know how to behave responsibly during the 2008 crisis.
Americans still have at least consistent strategy, smart central bankers and functioning banking system. The banking system were recapitalized and has passed the most dangerous stage.
YOU TELL ME WHAT EUROPE HAS IN THE END? A CENTRAL BANKER CALLED TRICHET WHO KEPT ON HIKING KEY RATE EVEN DURING A PAN-EUROPEAN BANKING CRISIS??? Now, finally, that Italian new central banker has to correct his weird policy by just cutting rate by 25bp. Trichet also hiked interest rate in 2008, and then reversed his own decision in humiliation.
It is already consensus among many bankers that the ECB bureaucrats are a bunch of jokes: too many politicians there who do not understand how market works.
Then you have a malfunctioning European Union--even now, all decisions still depend on coordination between Germany-France. Given the serious nature of this banking crisis, ANY MEANINGFUL ACTION SHOULD BE MADE AT THE EUROLAND LEVEL AND NATIONAL INTERESTS must be depressed with a Euroland perspective.
But you look at the whole crisis ever since 2010--no role of any European institution, such as Commission, EU president, European Parliament. Everything is still done through complicated inefficient diplomacy among all those pighead national leaders, who have all kinds of whims every five minutes.
The whole US crisis was killed by three key decision-makers: Hank Paulson, Ben, Tim Geithner. Perfect dream team. Congress created some noise, but quickly cooperated.
THEN YOU LOOK AT THE WHOLE FARCE OF EURO RESCUE, you tell me who are really making thoughtful responsible decisions there??
Anyway, I put my wealth where my mouth is: gold, real estate and US/Canada gov. bonds. If you prefer to waste China's reserves into those Greeks/Italian/Portuguese/Spanish bonds, then PLEASE GO AHEAD.
Anyway, Greek bonds already enjoyed 50% haircut. Good luck!
家园 如果世界经济放缓的话 不太看得清楚大宗商品的走势， 比如说，铁矿石的现货价已经跌了30%。
现在中国好像是比较肯定的紧缩政策。其他地方却是相反，巴西，澳洲，欧洲刚刚降息。
现在众说纷纷的是大本，这家伙越来越像Greenspan了，说起话来模棱两可，你怎么翻译都行，但就是不把QE3的事说踏实了。所以对HF的人来说，丫真是个童叟无欺，货真价实，举世无一的超级大定时炸弹呀。
当然如果能肯定是否有QE3的话，那就容易判读多了。
家园 when Chinese increase their domestic consumption, the demand for all kinds of commodities will continue to grow.
Anyway, Fed is going to roll out QE-N (there will be QE3, 4,5...) for sure. If china's foreign reserves are going to lose purchasing power anyway in the long run, it is always better to store commodities than those digital currency symbols in the global computer system.
Commodities can satisfy the everincreasing Chinese consumer demands, and paper money can not.
现在众说纷纷的是大本，这家伙越来越像Greenspan了，说起话来模棱两可，你怎么翻译都行，但就是不把QE3的事说踏实了。
--Ben is slowly pushing for more consensus among key Fed players. QE3 will come, but not this year. When there is a marked global slowdown due to European implosion, QE3 is sure to come out.