主题：银行的好日子结束了 -- zhuhit
家园 我也看见这篇报道了 30年不间断以8%的增长率线性增长------能规划出这个的，只有三种人：邓公，经济学家，疯子。
50年不间断以8%的增长率线性增长------能规划出这个的，只有两种人。
知足吧。
求人不如求己，今年要保至少7%的实质增长，又不可以依赖虚拟经济，只有投钱基建。国务院说：家里没招了，穷得只剩钱了。
这个，我赞成------不是办法的办法，好过完全不作为。但同时，最好搞几个特区，做一些大胆的试点，比如你说的明显改善民生，改善社区面貌。这样，万一“基建投资拉动法”终于不灵了，还有其他退路。
- 复 老兄辛苦
家园 虚拟经济不是动脑筋 已经是行动了。
我看有人要动虚拟经济的脑筋，虚掩着门，任它低成本的美国热钱进来，装看不见。 - 复 老兄辛苦
家园 look a lot of Chinese back in China still enjoy the old style of massive expansion...
http://www.cchere.com/article/3730434
haha.
那还不如“收拾旧房子”，把已有的“熟地”------就是东部和中部较发达和“渐发达”地区的基层社会环境------搞搞好，比如：水利；水/气污染；东部发达地区的“高教逐步义务化”；针对“看病难”摸索居民“联社自保”（建立互助社等），私人诊所；这其中也包括“三铁”之类的“国有权利向下兼容”。这样努力后，如果GDP增长率仍不如意，比如只有4%，那就让它4%好了，好过一点不增长------千万不要再拔苗助长了。
--exactly!! High growth rate is not equivalent to improvement of life quality, esp., for average Joes. If China goes along the current "high growth pattern", then future turmoil is inevitable.
家园 这点同意，欧洲的风暴会很大：-） 老太太这么强硬，最大州的选举都输了。最后德国必须妥协。这个过程会很糟糕。
家园 教授认为希腊退出欧元区的时间窗口会是何时？ 要等到下一轮的希腊选举之后吗？万一希腊人服软，选出了一个服从德国要求的政府呢？
花上。
家园 万一希腊人服软, no, you can use mathematical models to show that this kind of "ultimatum game" will produce lose-lose results. Greeks are very proud people.
I bet that they will put extreme left coalition into the gov. German threat will backfire.
家园 谢谢教授。请问希腊退出欧元后对欧美中的最坏影响会是怎样？ 继续请教，希腊退出欧元区有可能引起希腊内战或者是欧洲局部战争吗？由此带来的collateral damage对中国和美国的最坏影响能到什么程度？多谢~
家园 希腊退出欧元区有可能引起希腊内战或者是欧洲局部战争吗 1. Civil turmoil is sure for Greece. As to civil war, then it depends on Greek people. If they democratically vote for civil war, then they just deserve that. Applaude for their "brave and wise" choice for their own country!!
2. 欧洲局部战争--not at all. Today is not 1930s.
Greeks bluffed and overstated the effect of their exit to the Euroland. 2 years of long recession is expected.
3. US: recession for sure. Check my previous posts.
4. China: 中国最坏影响--China's fate is in the hand of Chinese political elites. If they choose to persecute political adversaries just as they do against Bo, internal political infight could easily destroy this nation.
China is too large and Greek collapse is peanut event for China. If China can implement FDR-styled policies and convert itself into a democratic nation with MUCH BETTER income distribution among haves and havenots, China could see this event as trivial.
It is despictable that a giant nation like China still relies on export demand for its domestic economic growth. It is equally despictable that this nation's elites are more willing to squeeze their compatriots to the limit to build up trillions of foreign reserves, than to distribute the fruit of economic growth A LITTLE BIT MORE EQUALLY among fellow Chinese.
In sum, GREEK'S CANCER IS TOO MUCH WELFARE AND LABOR POWER; CHINA'S CANCER IS TOO LITTLE WELFARE AND LABOR POWER.
家园 德国和南欧的恩怨之中，德国也逃不过原罪。 德国是越来越强大了，但是如何使然呢，部分原因是德国一直依靠贸易盈余拉动发展，谁贸易赤字呢，是南部欧洲，他们有钱么，没那么多，怎么办，德国银行借钱，南欧借钱消费，有还钱的纪律和奋发图强么，没有，他们度假去了。德国银行为了继续拿顺差，就继续借钱，你说德国与南欧这对冤家，有没有德国的问题，德国也是只看眼前，积累债务，只不过是债权方。
家园 嗯，跟希腊人聊天他们会提到二战时德国的旧帐。。 希腊人就是醉死不认半壶酒钱,打死也不肯承认今天的局面是好吃懒做偷奸耍滑造成的，这跟某些African American面对别人说他们lazy时的反应有的一拼。。