主题：2012 大选周记 之一 -- 切地雷
家园 有道理 感觉很多老白，老中和老印都没明白其实大家在一条叫做辛勤劳动的船上。美国渐渐的民主的走向奖懒罚勤的不归路上。
加拿大刚去过，感觉也有他自己奖懒罚勤的问题。不过资源丰富，人口又少，所以好对付。不过，没有强大的国防，迟早被美国剪羊毛。
家园 last time when America fell from peak to low point, it was late 1960s. It took it more than 12 years to come back. The foot of the trouble was the loose monetary and fiscal policies by Kennedy and LBJ.
Before then, there was the 1929 recession, which almost destroyed the nation. It took more than 15 years + WWII to come back to the normal track.
Wait and see. This downturn for America will take a bit longer, 7-10 years will be normal, but fundamentals are still not fully corrupted there.
I know everyone has his or her bias. On this forum, it is a taboo to criticize China. But facts are facts，and I have friends in banking, in States, Canada and China, and we often chat on various issues. I AM NOT SAYING CHINA WILL COLLAPSE. But big slowdown is inevitable and its banking system has ticking bombs there. 就房地产的问题而言， 中美之间不过是五十步笑百步。Wait and see, time will tell.
Actually even Canada is sitting on a potential housing bubble, but the trinity of Flaherty-Carney-Dickson is managing everyther with great skill.
家园 华伦赢得元老院银行委员会席位 The old-breed empire strikes back?
家园 美国是让房产泡沫在2008年破裂了 但大多数始作俑者们却因为"大到不能倒"而免受惩罚。这些机构和个人在美国国内的地位和影响力并未被消弱。从这个角度说，他们的泡沫还没有破裂。美国还不可能改变发展方式。
家园 未来十年美国基础设施仅维持现状就需要2.2万亿美元 美国从哪里出这笔钱？
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另外你说“就房地产的问题而言， 中美之间不过是五十步笑百步”，也就是说你承认美国的问题比中国大。那为什么你认为美国可以“come back to the normal track”，而不提中国同样可以呢？
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家园 三回parishg I have my bias too.Maybe I am more optimistic about China and more pessimitic about the US.
"...late 1960s. It took it more than 12 years to come back. ...1929 recession, which almost destroyed the nation. It took more than 15 years + WWII to come back to the normal track...This downturn for America will take a bit longer, 7-10 years will be normal, but fundamentals are still not fully corrupted there."
-- I also believe the U.S. ecomony will bounce back 7-10 year down the road because its fundamentals are still there NOW. That is why I am buying houses in the U.S. as investments.
However, 30 years later, with the fundamental demographic change (Black+Hispanic>White+Asian), the American as a people will not be the same as what it was in 1920s and 1960s. Not monetary or other policies can change that.Sir Arthur Lewis, who won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics, said that base on his lifelong research there is only one factor determining a country's economic development - work ethics.Blacks (more so) and hispanics are simply not comparable to Whites and Asians in terms of work ethics and even IQ.
"I AM NOT SAYING CHINA WILL COLLAPSE. But big slowdown is inevitable and its banking system has ticking bombs there."
--Agree. The Chinese housing market is so risky. I travelled a lot in China and have not find any good deal that can march what I can find in the U.S. in terms of cash flow and rent to price ratio.
However, "肉烂在锅里"。As long as Chinese are Chinese, China will eventually rise up again as a superpower, with or without the current government.
30 years later, we will see a competition between a Chinese with 1.3 billion (?) people and a U.S. with about 450 Million with half of them being Black or Hispanic. Who is going to win?
家园 美国的人口族裔组成改变的确是不能被忽视的 这个对美国文化基因的改造才是伤筋动骨。一切我们了解的美国都是以美国是一个以欧洲清教徒为基础发展起来的文化历史中的，我认为美国近年对拉丁人口的失控与对原文化的强大冲击，对美国的未来所产生的影响恐怕要超出我们现在能够看到理解的程度之外。
但是即使这样，在中美之间的比较上，甚至世界范围内，存在超越美国现在文化基因的国家仍然没有，不但没有，连有潜力的都没有，这里面有美国立国的历史原因，而且也是人类文明迁移的一个自然组成部分，就是产生美国现存文化的过程不是一个二百年之内的发展结果，而是有着更深远的源头与必然性。与美国文明比，中华文明虽然也是文明变迁的一个重要组成部分，但是其源头与所经历的融合广度，撞击力度，显然与美国文明不是一个数量级的，而且本身也在向着与西方文明主动融合的过程之中，但是这个世界的同质化趋势是不容否定的，即使从政治与经济的角度上看，这个同质化的趋势也是坚定不移的。世界大战虽然越来遥远，但全世界范围内的一个类似印度那样一亿精英与数十亿两条腿动物共存的现代种姓社会却越来越清晰了。在这样的一个未来文明下，还会有谁去关心“中美”的优胜略败么，即使有那不过也是类似美国总统选举的一台满足“动物”们好奇心的连续剧。
家园 美国已经结结实实的 走上了不归路。文化（特别是工作态度）是一个国家最核心的竞争力。资本主义发展了几百年，世上只有两种发达国家，以白人为主体的西方国家和东亚国家，而没有一个拉美，黑人和穆斯林国家，这绝对不是偶然的。
30年以后，一个社会主义的United States of 希腊+墨西哥+南非将矗立在世界的西方，加上一个被绿化的欧洲，这个世界将不再是那个我们习惯了的以白人为龙头的老世界。具有讽刺意义的是，白人男人们一直想征服整个世界，最终他们却将要输给非白人女人的肚子。
“中华文明虽然。。。这个同质化的趋势也是坚定不移的。”
---中华文化当然会演化，但只要中国人还保持足够的人口和几千年传下来的勤奋，好学和重视教育，必将在这场与懒人与神棍的竞争中胜出。
“但全世界范围内的一个类似印度那样一亿精英与数十亿两条腿动物共存的现代种姓社会却越来越清晰了”
--Somewhat disgree.这有点像共济会的阴谋论了。在未来的很长的时间内，国家的边界仍然会存在，中美两国的精英未必会合作来对付两国及世界的两条腿动物。美国精英还看不上TG精英呢，同时中国的天朝大国的心态迟早会冒出来。在两国的精英驾驭本国的两条腿动物的竞争中，美国的前景不妙。
家园 用这么多文字不就想说，这个世界是出身优越的精英统治的， 其他人就该老老实实当两腿动物，真是可怜可笑，或许你们美国人是这样想的，而我们中国人自古就说王侯将相宁有种乎。
看来毛主席发动文化大革命果然是有一定道理的，虽然没有操控好。