主题：【原创】茗谈（95）：织锦 -- 本嘉明
- 复 现在是不敢创业
家园 老兄写的不错，补充一点 就是企业融资的渠道必须要正常化，现在股市乱糟糟，一般银行又不轻易放贷给中小创业者，天朝缺乏欧美的风险投资基金体制，没有米企业就算有好idea要持续做大不容易，再加上你说的人力成本提升的原因和山寨现象，企业生存下去都是个难题。
家园 个人觉得还是大家都不知道做什么了。 最近几年的PE把重心已经转到稳健行业了，比如餐饮，物流，医院，养老重心等方向，对于信息行业，制造业等基础性行业没有人有兴趣了。这个可以从最近的一些企业家的讲话来看见，比如熊晓鸽最近的观点"熊晓鸽认为有四个技术将可能引导未来企业创新创业，第一、移动终端，第二、云服务，第三、社交技术，第四、大数据"。这些在我看来，基本上都是一些集成性的技术，即使有人弄出来一个killer级别的东西出来，很快就会有人收购/复制，不可能弄出来一个华为，QQ,百度甚至cchere一样的东西出来。
而且新东西出来后大家现在第一反应就是这个现在能够给我争多少钱，就算是这个东西真的很好也没有用。如果你给他分析了市场很大，一定能够成功，下一句就是国外有类似的东西么？国内有类似的东西么？他们多少钱，你们为什么要比他们贵那么多？大家都是flower,不愿意做第一个，因为成功很难，犯错容易。
家园 有啥不清楚的，作房地产呀 这个是肯定不会赔的，其它行业都是有风险的，看看郑州那个小科长就可以搞那么多房子，其利润可想而知。
家园 问题是哪有一直涨价的东西？ 上个月会老婆家(承德)，火车上一路看见的都是工地，而且都是高层。粗略算了一下，仅仅看见的正在建的小区就已经可以把承德市区人口都装进去了。难道以后住房子要排号？135房子A,246房子B,星期日别墅？问题是人民的生活水平感觉在下降，往年回去的时候去饭店吃饭是要排队的，这次回去基本上有一小半是空的。
家园 sign of coming difficulty 回去基本上有一小半是空的...
1. The real estate bubble drains investment and consumption power.
2. The banking system was overstretched and exposed to one single biggest industry, real estate (which is deeply involved in all kinds of speculation).
REAL ECONOMY WAS SHRINKING AND CREDIT-SUPPORTED speculative economic activities are still booming.
I have never seen one industrialized nation that won global status/respect through ever increasing housing price.
China could be the first exception, haha. But remember before that, there are Japan in 1980s, US and Ireland before 2007. They all believe in the same way...
I want to remind domestic Chinese the nonperforming loan problem in China's banking system.
Below is the non-performing loan ratio history (according to the general practice, non-performing or non-accrual loans are defined as loans that have been delinquent on interesting or principal payment for more than 90 days) in China’s banking system. Original data come from various issues of World Bank publications.
2001: 29.4%
2007: 6.2%
2008: 2.4%
2011: 1.1%
The 2007 (6.2%) ratio was still very high compared with most industrialized nations. Therefore there was nothing to be proud of. The U.S. banking system had bad debt problem since housing collapse, its peak level is in 2009 (5.4%).
China's nonperforming loan ratio declined because of one major reason: there was A PERIOD OF CRAZY CREDIT EXPANSION since late 2008, pressured by premier Wen. Newly extended loans have diluted the bad debt problem.
Those new loans lent out in the crazy years of 2009-2011 will come home to haunt Chinese banks and China's economy very soon. Currently, people are just using all kinds of dirty tricks (e.g., shadow bank lending) to cover up their problems.
家园 this time is different 章家敦同志喊了20年，然后是“敌人一天天坏下去，我们一天天好起来”，所以这次也会一样？
以救经济之名行刺激之实，资产泡沫进一步膨胀，经历的、见证的就是通胀政策进行时。
家园 Gordon Chang predicted based on certain assumptions. It is true that a country with 30-40% non-performing loan ratio in 1990s will find it difficult to maintain the system. But those assumptions do not play out in 1990s.
Last time, America served as the savior: it opened its domestic market to let in China's import, it also started a dot.com revolution so that excess capital find places to invest--rather than wasting on unproductive real estate speculation. European market also serves as a healthy outlet for China's exports.
China was rescued last round by a very open external market and its PRIVATE export sector, NOT the 管办经济。
It no longer has such a luck this time. Its 2011 non-performing loan ratio has reached historical lowest point in its own history, it is even lower than in some of the best countries on the earth, such as Switzerland and Canada in 2011. I want to point out the 2007 level was around 7%--that's more normal for China given its inefficient state sector.
China's economy is so large now: it is more costly and DIFFICULT than in the past for gov.-managed stimulation or manipulation.
China's export sector is dying, real estate speculation being hovering in the sky. There was lots of waste of infrastructure investment between 2009-2012. All will come back and show its impact in the banking sector.
let's wait and see. I think it will take 3 years before China's gov. even admits this souring banking problem in its own media.
Before that, we were like America in early 2006.
YOU MENTIONED INFLATION IS THE BEST CURE. AGREE. FED UNDER BEN IS DOING THE SAME THING NOW. But what you prefer is a CONTROLLABLE mild inflation over 10 years. It is not easy to control inflation in China: it is either too high or too low. PBOC needs to be a good student of Fed for a few more decades.
家园 China will be rescued by the I think this time China will be rescued by the fall of Japan and the internationalization of RMB. It will lead to the upgrade of tech and cheaper energy cost.
家园 Could you show us which time Could you show us which time is key point? And what way is good for person?
家园 at least 3 years. 1. 2013 is Germany's election year. Europe will be popped up.
2. 2013-2014 there will be China's leadership transition. People will maintain the growth or at least fake the growth data.
Bad infrastructure loans will take some time to manifest itself. In early 1990s, China's banking system covered up its problem for many years and data were only disclosed in 1998 or 1999. But the real estate speculation/price peaked in 1995 in China.
家园 新班子的新城镇计划还是在搞房地产 让农民工市民化这些房子就有用处了，户口总要挂靠在房子上的。那些开放商只要不收紧银行资金链他们宁肯让地荒着长草也不建楼，而地方部门出于自身利益考虑也对此不闻不问。
- 复 现在是不敢创业
家园 能不能这样设想 把“政府补贴装修费”项目同时适用于办公楼和一些市内旧居民楼，从而由市政府控制一部分写字楼和居民楼(可以称为“RRAP宿舍楼”)的15年租金。
在本市注册的企业，都可以申请一些“荣誉市民”名额，根据企业员工数，某些重点扶持企业还可以百分比高一些。得到“荣誉市民卡”的外地员工，可以凭卡选择任何一座“RRAP宿舍楼”申请租房，先到先得。这样，企业就容易留住好的外来人材，因为你要跳槽了，企业可以吊销你的“荣誉市民卡”。