主题：【原创】谈谈中国在东海划定防空识别区 -- 晨枫

人家插个边过去，你赶过去也来不及。

有点理解不能呀

可能性不大。

但应该不是划防空识别区的目的，至少不是唯一的目的

公知强迫症的一种表现？

划区的目的本来就是做个缓冲，能在钓鱼岛空域有持续存在就是成功。

or whatever hedging as a reasonably "strong (it is a PR game anyway) "counter move against uncle sam's bullying him/TGchina, X is naked: he may be big on ambition, short on everything else (except his political power & skills domestically), in front of the whole world.

晨枫:

"一开始，双方都会显示立场，在重叠区里比翼齐飞会很常见，甚至可能会有事故。但要避免中日在各自“单方面”宣布的ADZI里发生意外冲突，唯一现实的做法是双方默认重叠区为各自的军用飞机免入区，否则只有卷入不可控制的升级。"

1.

likely X is in a meeting now;

but what he could do?

1) china already knows before US made the fuss;

2) if china were ready with "all plan A, B, C" set up, china would have taken initiatives to make the move already, why still discussing & meeting?

3) if it is just an another "serious protest' of words only=0

2.

一旦遭人欺负，瞬间就应当进行回击。瞬间!—普京

X may have tried to "山寨"普京, & miscalculated uncle sam; uncle sam: can't have more than 1 普京 burning in my ass, pick the weak one, hit him

now X got hit by uncle sam, what is the follow up plan?

3.

北京要求外国飞行器进入防空识别区，须先向中国通报飞行计画，包括国籍、航向、航速、高度、飞行路线等，接受监控。未申请飞机进入，将面对战机升空拦截、监视等行动

1)美国轰炸机飞越中国设定的东海航空识别区。轰炸机飞抵相关区域之后，中国方面并没有与这两架轰炸机取得联系。

2) 中国国防部航天器进入东海防空识别圈的要求：必须开启并保持双向无线电通信联系，及时准确回答东海防空识别区管理机构或其授权单位的识别询问；配有二次雷达应答机的应当全程开启

apparently, X started his short JPY/uncle sam position well prepared for all this technical stuff, and now what?

4.

晨枫

" 军用飞机免入区，否则只有卷入不可控制的升级"

uncle sam apparently did 升级, kind of like margin loaded to reinforce your trade positions, hoping your counter party to chicken out & give up on the game

1) 1962的古巴危机，当时俄罗斯要将核武器布置在古巴，那是美国门口，美国肯尼地总统马上要打核战争, soviet chickened , & M started shorting soviet?

2) now uncle sam B-52 already showed its force, & TGchina has not even figured out what to say?

3) X model already started topping out?

4) 升级 is kind of like leveraging, all traders put margin on to support their positions, but eventually margins have to be taken off, borrowed money to be paid back to the brokerage, the challenge:

whose trade is going to be a losing trade? somebody has to lose to wrap up the game, for others to win, with profit made;

so far, X is likely the losing trader

5

"卷入不可控制的升级" is the trick

every trader thinks he is the only smart asshole in the world, so until his stop loss orders get hit, he is not going to give up

taking out his stop loss orders is obviously not enough, the guy will come back again to trade against you, so the best way to wipe him out is to 爆倉 this guy: let him piles up all the margins in front of everybody, then the market maker call in all his buddies, cascading down the stock, so this guy had no chance to activate his stop loss, & he is all but taken out, with everybody watching, & learning: follow the market maker, or you will be killed, period

6.

X: very likely not prepared for 1962的古巴危机 kind of 升级

otherwise, X is fully repaired, still, the game is non-linear, a little loss at last round of game=the loss of entire game

TG should have planned for 美国轰炸机 etc coming in;

1) TG air fighter to take off & monitor 美国轰炸机

2) US air fighter to take off to monitor the TG

3) US is ready to take out TG air fighter at whatever risk, including a full fledged war with TGchina

4) TG military did not plan for 3)

5) TG military found 3) out after 2)

6) TG military reported to X

7) X: fxxk u guys, activate stop loss orders, no further military actions of whatever

just a guess