主题：【原创】炮打工业党：《论工业社会及其未来》 -- 万年看客
家园 167-170：人类苦难 HUMAN SUFFERING
人类苦难
167. The industrial system will not break down purely as a result of revolutionary action. It will not be vulnerable to revolutionary attack unless its own internal problems of development lead it into very serious difficulties. So if the system breaks down it will do so either spontaneously, or through a process that is in part spontaneous but helped along by revolutionaries. If the breakdown is sudden, many people will die, since the world's population has become so overblown that it cannot even feed itself any longer without advanced technology. Even if the breakdown is gradual enough so that reduction of the population can occur more through lowering of the birth rate than through elevation of the death rate, the process of de-industrialization probably will be very chaotic and involve much suffering. It is naive to think it likely that technology can be phased out in a smoothly managed orderly way, especially since the technophiles will fight stubbornly at every step. Is it therefore cruel to work for the breakdown of the system? Maybe, but maybe not. In the first place, revolutionaries will not be able to break the system down unless it is already in deep trouble so that there would be a good chance of its eventually breaking down by itself anyway; and the bigger the system grows, the more disastrous the consequences of its breakdown will be; so it may be that revolutionaries, by hastening the onset of the breakdown will be reducing the extent of the disaster.
167，工业体系的崩溃不会纯粹是革命行动的结果，它不会那么难以抵御革命的攻击，除非它自身内部的发展问题导致了极为严重的困难。因此如果体系崩溃，那么它或是自发崩溃，或是部分自发、部分由革命者促发的崩溃。如果崩溃是突如其来的，许多人都会死去，因为世界人口已如此过分膨胀，离开了先进技术就无法养活自己。甚至即使崩溃足够缓慢，人口的减少可以主要通过出生率的降低而不是死亡率的提高而实现，非工业化的过程也多半是极度混乱和极度痛苦的。幻想通过平稳控制的有序方式逐步废除技术是天真的，特别是要考虑到技术爱好者们的负隅顽抗。那么，致力于体系的崩溃是否因此就十分残酷呢？也许是，也许不是。首先，除非体系本来就已经陷入了深重的困难，无论如何都很可能最终自行崩溃，否者单靠革命者是不可能强行使其崩溃的。而且体系发展得规模越大，崩溃的后果就越严重。因此加速体系崩溃的革命者或许反倒控制了灾难的规模。
168. In the second place, one has to balance the struggle and death against the loss of freedom and dignity. To many of us, freedom and dignity are more important than a long life or avoidance of physical pain. Besides, we all have to die some time, and it may be better to die fighting for survival, or for a cause, than to live a long but empty and purposeless life.
168，其次，我们必须权衡斗争与死亡和丧失自由与尊严这两方面的得失。对于我们之中的许多人来说，自由与尊严比长寿和避免肉体痛苦更重要。再者，我们早晚会死，死于为生存或为某一事业而战，强于活得空虚而无目的。
169. In the third place, it is not all certain that the survival of the system will lead to less suffering than the breakdown of the system would. The system has already caused, and is continuing to cause , immense suffering all over the world. Ancient cultures, that for hundreds of years gave people a satisfactory relationship with each other and their environment, have been shattered by contact with industrial society, and the result has been a whole catalogue of economic, environmental, social and psychological problems. One of the effects of the intrusion of industrial society has been that over much of the world traditional controls on population have been thrown out of balance. Hence the population explosion, with all that it implies. Then there is the psychological suffering that is widespread throughout the supposedly fortunate countries of the West (see paragraphs 44, 45). No one knows what will happen as a result of ozone depletion, the greenhouse effect and other environmental problems that cannot yet be foreseen. And, as nuclear proliferation has shown, new technology cannot be kept out of the hands of dictators and irresponsible Third World nations. Would you like to speculate abut what Iraq or North Korea will do with genetic engineering?
169，第三，体系的存续所带来的痛苦并不一定就比体系崩溃所带来的痛苦更少。在全世界范围内，体系已经招致、并且正在招致的巨大痛苦曾使人类千百年与他人以及环境和睦相处的古代文化被与其解接触的工业社会所摧毁。其结果就是全方位的经济、环境、社会和心理问题。工业杜会的侵扰所产生的影响之一，就是传统的人口控制在全球范围内一下子失去了平衡，因而产生了人口爆炸及其所有连带后果。接着就是心理疾病席卷了整个所谓“幸运”的西方社会（参见44, 45段）。没有人知道臭氧层耗尽、温室效应及其他现在还不能预测的环境问题最终会为这个世界带来怎样的后果。而且就像核扩散已经显示的那样，我们无法防止新技术落入独裁者和不负责任的第三世界国家手中。愿意猜猜伊位克或北朝鲜将用遗传工程来干什么吗?
170. "Oh!" say the technophiles, "Science is going to fix all that! We will conquer famine, eliminate psychological suffering, make everybody healthy and happy!" Yeah, sure. That's what they said 200 years ago. The Industrial Revolution was supposed to eliminate poverty, make everybody happy, etc. The actual result has been quite different. The technophiles are hopelessly naive (or self-deceiving) in their understanding of social problems. They are unaware of (or choose to ignore) the fact that when large changes, even seemingly beneficial ones, are introduced into a society, they lead to a long sequence of other changes, most of which are impossible to predict (paragraph 103). The result is disruption of the society. So it is very probable that in their attempt to end poverty and disease, engineer docile, happy personalities and so forth, the technophiles will create social systems that are terribly troubled, even more so that the present one. For example, the scientists boast that they will end famine by creating new, genetically engineered food plants. But this will allow the human population to keep expanding indefinitely, and it is well known that crowding leads to increased stress and aggression. This is merely one example of the PREDICTABLE problems that will arise. We emphasize that, as past experience has shown, technical progress will lead to other new problems for society far more rapidly that it has been solving old ones. Thus it will take a long difficult period of trial and error for the technophiles to work the bugs out of their Brave New World (if they ever do). In the meantime there will be great suffering. So it is not all clear that the survival of industrial society would involve less suffering than the breakdown of that society would. Technology has gotten the human race into a fix from which there is not likely to be any easy escape.
170，“嗨！”技术爱好者们会说，“科学能解决所有这些问题！我们将征服饥荒、消灭心理病痛，让每一个人都健康而快乐！”是的，是的。他们200年前就是这么说的。人们曾指望工业社会能够消灭贫穷，使每一个人都快乐，等等。实际结果却不是那么回事。技术爱好者对社会问题的理解简直是无可救药地天真（或自欺欺人）。他们没有意识到（或故意视而不见）这样一个事实：当巨大的变化，即使是看上去有利的变化，被引入一个社会时，将会引发一长串其他变化，这些变化之中的大都分是不可预见的（103段）其结果则是社会的混乱。因此，技术爱好者们在试图消灭贫穷和疾病，设计制造驯顺、快乐的人格等等时，很可能会创造出比现在还糟糕的社会体系。例如，科学家们吹嘘说他们能够创造出新的、经遗传工程改造的粮食植物以消灭饥荒。然而，这将会允许人日无限膨胀下去，而众所周知，拥挤会导致紧张和攻击性的增强。这仅仅是技术会导致的可预见问题中的一个例子。我们强调指出，历史经验告诉我们，技术进步给社会带来新问题的速度远比它解决旧问题的速度要快。因此技术爱好者们要经过一个漫长的试错时期才能够为他们的美丽新世界排除掉所有的故障（假设他们最终能做到的话）。而与此同时所产生的痛苦将会如此巨大，以至于体系生存下去所带来的痛苦不见得就比体系崩溃更少。技术己将人类带入了一条无法轻易逃脱的死胡同
家园 171-179：未来 THE FUTURE
未来
171. But suppose now that industrial society does survive the next several decade and that the bugs do eventually get worked out of the system, so that it functions smoothly. What kind of system will it be? We will consider several possibilities.
171，然而，假设工业社会经过未来几十年确实幸存下来并最终排除了故障，因而实现了平稳运转，它又会是一个什么样的体系呢?我们将考虑几种可能性
172. First let us postulate that the computer scientists succeed in developing intelligent machines that can do all things better that human beings can do them. In that case presumably all work will be done by vast, highly organized systems of machines and no human effort will be necessary. Either of two cases might occur. The machines might be permitted to make all of their own decisions without human oversight, or else human control over the machines might be retained.
172.首先，让我们假定计算机科学家成功地开发出了智能机器，这些机器无论做什么事都比人类强。在这种情况下，大概所有工作都会由巨大的、高度组织化的机器系统去做，而不再需要任何人类的努力。有两种情况可能发生。一种是允许机器在没有人类监督的情况下自已做出所有的决策，另一种是人类保留对于机器的控制。
173. If the machines are permitted to make all their own decisions, we can't make any conjectures as to the results, because it is impossible to guess how such machines might behave. We only point out that the fate of the human race would be at the mercy of the machines. It might be argued that the human race would never be foolish enough to hand over all the power to the machines. But we are suggesting neither that the human race would voluntarily turn power over to the machines nor that the machines would willfully seize power. What we do suggest is that the human race might easily permit itself to drift into a position of such dependence on the machines that it would have no practical choice but to accept all of the machines decisions. As society and the problems that face it become more and more complex and machines become more and more intelligent, people will let machines make more of their decision for them, simply because machine-made decisions will bring better result than man-made ones. Eventually a stage may be reached at which the decisions necessary to keep the system running will be so complex that human beings will be incapable of making them intelligently. At that stage the machines will be in effective control. People won't be able to just turn the machines off, because they will be so dependent on them that turning them off would amount to suicide.
173，如果我们允许机器自己做出所有的决策，就无法对其结果进行揣度，因为不可能猜测此类机器的行为。我们只想指出，人类的命运那时就全凭机器发落了。人们也许会反驳，人类决不会愚蠢到把全部权力都交给机器。但我们既不是说人类会有意将权力交给机器，也不是说机器会存心夺权。我们实际上说的是，人类可能会轻易地让自己滑落到一个完全依赖机器的位置，滑落到不能做出任何实际选择，只能接受机器的所有决策的地步。随着社会及其面临的问题变得越来越复杂，而机器变得越来越聪明，人们会让机器替他们做更多的决策。仅仅是因为机器做出的决策会比人的决策带来更好的结果。最后，第二阶段将会来临，在这个阶段，维持体系运行所必需的决策已变得如此之复杂。以至于人类已无能力明智地进行决策。在这一阶段，机器实质上已处于控制地位。人们已不能把机器关上，因为他们已如此地依赖于机器，关上它们就等于是自杀
174. On the other hand it is possible that human control over the machines may be retained. In that case the average man may have control over certain private machines of his own, such as his car of his personal computer, but control over large systems of machines will be in the hands of a tiny elite -- just as it is today, but with two difference. Due to improved techniques the elite will have greater control over the masses; and because human work will no longer be necessary the masses will be superfluous, a useless burden on the system. If the elite is ruthless the may simply decide to exterminate the mass of humanity. If they are humane they may use propaganda or other psychological or biological techniques to reduce the birth rate until the mass of humanity becomes extinct, leaving the world to the elite. Or, if the elite consist of soft-hearted liberals, they may decide to play the role of good shepherds to the rest of the human race. They will see to it that everyone's physical needs are satisfied, that all children are raised under psychologically hygienic conditions, that everyone has a wholesome hobby to keep him busy, and that anyone who may become dissatisfied undergoes "treatment" to cure his "problem." Of course, life will be so purposeless that people will have to be biologically or psychologically engineered either to remove their need for the power process or to make them "sublimate" their drive for power into some harmless hobby. These engineered human beings may be happy in such a society, but they most certainly will not be free. They will have been reduced to the status of domestic animals.
171.另一方面，也可能人类还能保持对机器的控制。在这种情况下，一般人也许可以控制他自己的私人机器，如他自己的汽车或私人计算机，但对于大型机器系统的控制权将落入一小群精英之手——就像今天一样，但有两点不同。由于技术的改进，精英对于大众的控制能力将会极大提高，因为人不再必需工作，大众就成为了多余的人，成为了体系的无用负担。如果精英集团失去了怜悯心，他们完全可以决定灭绝人类大众。如果他们有些人情味，他们也可以使用宣传或其他心理学或生物学技术降低出生率，直至人类大众自行消亡，让这个世界由精英们独占。或者，如果精英集团是由软心肠的自由派人士组成的，他们也可以为剩余的人类种族扮演好牧人的角色。他们将注意保证每个人的生理需求都得到满足，每一个孩子都在心理十分健康的条件下被抚养成人，每一个人都有一项有益于健康的癖好来打发日子，每一个可能会变得不满的人都会接受治疗以治愈其“疾病”。当然，生活是如此没有目的，以致于人们都不得不经过生物学的或心理学的重新设计改造，以去除他们对于权力过程的需求，或使他们的权力欲“升华”为无害的癖好。这些经过改造的人们也许能在这样一个社会中生活得平和愉快，但他们决不会自由。他们将被贬低到家畜的地位。
175. But suppose now that the computer scientists do not succeed in developing artificial intelligence, so that human work remains necessary. Even so, machines will take care of more and more of the simpler tasks so that there will be an increasing surplus of human workers at the lower levels of ability. (We see this happening already. There are many people who find it difficult or impossible to get work, because for intellectual or psychological reasons they cannot acquire the level of training necessary to make themselves useful in the present system.) On those who are employed, ever-increasing demands will be placed; They will need more and m ore training, more and more ability, and will have to be ever more reliable, conforming and docile, because they will be more and more like cells of a giant organism. Their tasks will be increasingly specialized so that their work will be, in a sense, out of touch with the real world, being concentrated on one tiny slice of reality. The system will have to use any means that I can, whether psychological or biological, to engineer people to be docile, to have the abilities that the system requires and to "sublimate" their drive for power into some specialized task. But the statement that the people of such a society will have to be docile may require qualification. The society may find competitiveness useful, provided that ways are found of directing competitiveness into channels that serve that needs of the system. We can imagine into channels that serve the needs of the system. We can imagine a future society in which there is endless competition for positions of prestige an power. But no more than a very few people will ever reach the top, where the only real power is (see end of paragraph 163). Very repellent is a society in which a person can satisfy his needs for power only by pushing large numbers of other people out of the way and depriving them of THEIR opportunity for power.
175，再假设计算机科学家们没有能够在开发人工智能方面取得成功，因此人的工作还是必要的。即使如此，机器也将承担越来越多的简单工作，而低能力的工人将越来越过剩（正如我们所见，这种事已经发生了。许多人很难或根本找不到工作，因为他们由于智力或心理原因而不能达到在现今体系内有用就必须达到的训练水平）对于那些找到工作的人，要求会越来越高。他们将需要越来越多的训练，越来越强的能力，他们将不得不越来越可靠、越来越规矩、越来越驯顺，因为他们将越来越像巨型有机体的细胞。他们的任务将越来越专门化，囚而他们的工作在某种意义上也将越来越脱离真实世界，仅集中于现实的一块小碎片。体系将使用一切可以使用的心理学或生物学手段来设计制造人类，使之驯顺，使之具有体系要求的能力，使之将权力欲“升华”为某些专门化的任务。但是这样一个社会的人民将不得不驯顺。这一陈述是有条件的。如果可以找到某种方法，能将竞争性导向服务于体系需求的轨道，那么社会也许会发现竞争性是有用的。我们可以想像这徉一个未来社会，生活于其间的人没完没了地为了声望和权力而竞争，但是只有少数人能够爬上独占真正权力的顶点（参见163段末尾）。这是一个极其令人反胃的世界，因为在这个世界当中，一个人满足权力需求的唯一方式就是将众多他人排挤到一边并剥夺他们满足权力需求的机会。
176. Once can envision scenarios that incorporate aspects of more than one of the possibilities that we have just discussed. For instance, it may be that machines will take over most of the work that is of real, practical importance, but that human beings will be kept busy by being given relatively unimportant work. It has been suggested, for example, that a great development of the service of industries might provide work for human beings. Thus people will would spend their time shinning each others shoes, driving each other around inn taxicab, making handicrafts for one another, waiting on each other's tables, etc. This seems to us a thoroughly contemptible way for the human race to end up, and we doubt that many people would find fulfilling lives in such pointless busy-work. They would seek other, dangerous outlets (drugs, , crime, "cults," hate groups) unless they were biological or psychologically engineered to adapt them to such a way of life.
176，我们还可以想像某种把若干个上述可能性结合起来的场景。例如，机器可能接管大部分具有真正重要性的工作，但人类则仍旧还能在相对不那么重要的工作上面忙活。例如有人建议，大力发展服务业可以给人类提供工作机会。这样人们就可以把时间花在互相擦皮鞋上面，可以用出租车带着彼此到处瞎转，互相为对方做手工艺品，互相给对方端盘子，等等。人类如果最终以这样的方式结局，那对于我们来说也实在是太可怜了，而且我们怀疑有多少人会觉得这样的无意义的忙碌等同于充实的生活。他们会去寻找危险的其他渲泄途径（毒品、犯罪、邪教、仇恨群体等），除非他们经过生物学或心理学的设计改造后适应了这种生活方式
177. Needless to day, the scenarios outlined above do not exhaust all the possibilities. They only indicate the kinds of outcomes that seem to us mots likely. But wee can envision no plausible scenarios that are any more palatable that the ones we've just described. It is overwhelmingly probable that if the industrial-technological system survives the next 40 to 100 years, it will by that time have developed certain general characteristics: Individuals (at least those of the "bourgeois" type, who are integrated into the system and make it run, and who therefore have all the power) will be more dependent than ever on large organizations; they will be more "socialized" that ever and their physical and mental qualities to a significant extent (possibly to a very great extent ) will be those that are engineered into them rather than being the results of chance (or of God's will, or whatever); and whatever may be left of wild nature will be reduced to remnants preserved for scientific study and kept under the supervision and management of scientists (hence it will no longer be truly wild). In the long run (say a few centuries from now) it is it is likely that neither the human race nor any other important organisms will exist as we know them today, because once you start modifying organisms through genetic engineering there is no reason to stop at any particular point, so that the modifications will probably continue until man and other organisms have been utterly transformed.
177，不用说，上述场景尚未穷尽所有可能性。它们只是表明了我们看来似乎最可能的结局。然而，我们无法想像比上述情况更好而又似乎可能的场景。极其可能的情况是，如果工业技术体系能够度过未来40-100年而幸存下来，那时它将会发展出某些一般特征：个人（至少是那些“小资产阶级”类型的人，他们被整合进体系并维持其运转，因而也掌握了全部权力）空前地依赖大型组织，空前地“社会化”，他们的身心品质在相当程度上（很可能是极大程度上）是设计改造的结果，而不是机缘（或上帝意志，或其他什么）的结果；野生自然所能留下的部分只是为了科学研究而保留的一些残余，这些残余将由科学家监视与管理（因而也算不上真正野生）。从长远看（比如几个世纪以后），无论是人类，还是任何其他重要的有机体，都不会像我们今天所知道的那样存在下去，因为只要你一开始通过遗传工程改造有机体，就没有理由在某一个特定点上停下来，因此改造多半会继下去去，直至人类和其他有机体彻底改观。
178. Whatever else may be the case, it is certain that technology is creating for human begins a new physical and social environment radically different from the spectrum of environments to which natural selection has adapted the human race physically and psychological. If man is not adjust to this new environment by being artificially re-engineered, then he will be adapted to it through a long an painful process of natural selection. The former is far more likely that the latter.
17 8，无论还有另外什么情况，有一点是肯定的：技术给人类创造了一个新的物质和社会环境。这个环境与人类通过自然选择而在生理上和心理上适应了的所有各类环境都极为不同。如果人类不能通过人为的重新设计改造而适应这一新环境，那么就得通过自然选择的痛苦过程去适应它，前者的可能性要比后者大得多
179. It would be better to dump the whole stinking system and take the consequences.
179，更好的办法是把这个腐朽的体系整个扔进垃圾堆，并勇敢地承受其后果。
家园 180-206：策略 STRATEGY
策略
180. The technophiles are taking us all on an utterly reckless ride into the unknown. Many people understand something of what technological progress is doing to us yet take a passive attitude toward it because they think it is inevitable. But we (FC) don't think it is inevitable. We think it can be stopped, and we will give here some indications of how to go about stopping it.
180，技术爱好者们把我们所有的人都绑上了一辆笔直冲向未知世界的战车。许多人已经开始理解了技术进步给我们带来的究竟是什么，但仍然采取消极态度，囚为他们认为这是无法改变的。但是，我们（FC）认为这是可以改变的。我们认为可以制止它，而且在这里我们将提出如何着手制止它的办法。
181. As we stated in paragraph 166, the two main tasks for the present are to promote social stress and instability in industrial society and to develop and propagate an ideology that opposes technology and the industrial system. When the system becomes sufficiently stressed and unstable, a revolution against technology may be possible. The pattern would be similar to that of the French and Russian Revolutions. French society and Russian society, for several decades prior to their respective revolutions, showed increasing signs of stress and weakness. Meanwhile, ideologies were being developed that offered a new world view that was quite different from the old one. In the Russian case, revolutionaries were actively working to undermine the old order. Then, when the old system was put under sufficient additional stress (by financial crisis in France, by military defeat in Russia) it was swept away by revolution. What we propose in something along the same lines.
181，正如我们在第166段宣称的那样，现在的两个主要任务是在工业社会中促进社会紧张与不稳定，以及宣传一种反对技术和工业体系的意识形态。当体系变得足够紧张和不稳定时，一场反对技术的革命就有机会发动了。这一模式将十分类似于法国和俄国革命。在两国各自革命之前的几十年里，法国和俄国社会都显示出了越来越多的紧张与脆弱迹象。同时，提供一个与旧世界完全不同的新世界愿景的意识形态发展了起来。以俄国的情况为例，革命者积极从事于破坏旧秩序的工作。然后当旧体系面临着足够的额外紧张时（法国是财政危机，俄国是军事失败），它就会被革命一扫而光。我们预想的就是这样的道路。
182. It will be objected that the French and Russian Revolutions were failures. But most revolutions have two goals. One is to destroy an old form of society and the other is to set up the new form of society envisioned by the revolutionaries. The French and Russian revolutionaries failed (fortunately!) to create the new kind of society of which they dreamed, but they were quite successful in destroying the existing form of society.
182，大多数革命都有两个,目标，一个目标是摧毁一个旧社会，另一个目标是建立革命者想像的新社会。法国和俄国的革命者没有能够成功地建立他们所梦想的新社会（这是十分幸运的事），但她们非常成功地摧毁了既存社会。
183. But an ideology, in order to gain enthusiastic support, must have a positive ideals well as a negative one; it must be FOR something as well as AGAINST something. The positive ideal that we propose is Nature. That is , WILD nature; those aspects of the functioning of the Earth and its living things that are independent of human management and free of human interference and control. And with wild nature we include human nature, by which we mean those aspects of the functioning of the human individual that are not subject to regulation by organized society but are products of chance, or free will, or God (depending on your religious or philosophical opinions).
185，然而，一种意识形态如想争取到热情支持，除了负面理想外必须还有正面理想，决不能只破不立。我们的正面理想是自然，即野生自然，按照其本来面目运行的地球，不依赖于人类管理、摆脱人类干涉和控制的地球生灵。我们的野生自然也包括人类本性，即不受有组织社会管制、自主运行的个人，成为偶然性或自由意志或上帝（由你的宗教或哲学观念）的产物。
184. Nature makes a perfect counter-ideal to technology for several reasons. Nature (that which is outside the power of the system) is the opposite of technology (which seeks to expand indefinitely the power of the system). Most people will agree that nature is beautiful; certainly it has tremendous popular appeal. The radical environmentalists ALREADY hold an ideology that exalts nature and opposes technology. [30] It is not necessary for the sake of nature to set up some chimerical utopia or any new kind of social order. Nature takes care of itself: It was a spontaneous creation that existed long before any human society, and for countless centuries many different kinds of human societies coexisted with nature without doing it an excessive amount of damage. Only with the Industrial Revolution did the effect of human society on nature become really devastating. To relieve the pressure on nature it is not necessary to create a special kind of social system, it is only necessary to get rid of industrial society. Granted, this will not solve all problems. Industrial society has already done tremendous damage to nature and it will take a very long time for the scars to heal. Besides, even pre-industrial societies can do significant damage to nature. Nevertheless, getting rid of industrial society will accomplish a great deal. It will relieve the worst of the pressure on nature so that the scars can begin to heal. It will remove the capacity of organized society to keep increasing its control over nature (including human nature). Whatever kind of society may exist after the demise of the industrial system, it is certain that most people will live close to nature, because in the absence of advanced technology there is not other way that people CAN live. To feed themselves they must be peasants or herdsmen or fishermen or hunter, etc., And, generally speaking, local autonomy should tend to increase, because lack of advanced technology and rapid communications will limit the capacity of governments or other large organizations to control local communities.
184，出于以下原因，自然成为了与技术抗衡的完美理想。自然处于体系权力之外，是技术（它谋求无限地扩张体系权力）的对立面。大多数人都会认为自然是美的，而美确实对公众有着巨大的感召力。激进的环境主义者们已经秉承了颂扬自然、反对技术的意识形态。[30] 根本不需要为了自然而建立某种空想的乌托邦或任何社会新秩序自然能够自己照料自己：它是自发的创造物，在有任何人类社会之前很久就存在了，而且许多不同类型的人类社会与自然共存了无数世纪却没有对它造成大的损害。只是工业革命之后，人类社会对于自然的影响才真正变得具有破坏性缓解对自然的压力是不用着创建一个新社会体系的，只要摆脱工业化社会就足够了。当然这不能解决所有问题。工业化社会已经对自然遣成r极大的破坏，医治创伤需要一个漫长的时期。另外，甚至前工业社会也能对自然造成相当的破坏。尽管如此，摆脱工业社会也能大有建树。它会缓解对自然的最严酷的压力，使创伤能开始愈合。它将剥夺有组织的社会对自然〔包括人类自然)的控制能力。工业体系死亡之后，无论出现什么徉的社会，有一点是肯定的:它的人民将更贴近自然，因为没有了先进技术，这成了人们唯一能采取的生活方式。为了吃饱，他们必须是农民、牧民、渔民或猎人，等等。而且，一般说来，地方自洽会增加，因为没有了先进技术和快速通迅，政府或其他大型组织控制地方社区的能力将十分有限
[30]. (Paragraph 184) A further advantage of nature as a counter-ideal to technology is that, in many people, nature inspires the kind of reverence that is associated with religion, so that nature could perhaps be idealized on a religious basis. It is true that in many societies religion has served as a support and justification for the established order, but it is also true that religion has often provided a basis for rebellion. Thus it may be useful to introduce a religious element into the rebellion against technology, the more so because Western society today has no strong religious foundation.
【30】（第184段）将自然作为与技术抗衡的理想的另一个优点是，在许多人心目中自然都会唤起某种和宗教相类似的神圣情感。因此自然多半可以在宗教的基础上加以理想化。确实，在很多社会中，宗教都支持既存状序并将其正当化，但宗教同样也经常提供反叛的基础。因此，把宗教成份导入反对技术的革命也是有用的，特别是因为今天的西方社会没有很强的宗教基础。
Religion, nowadays either is used as cheap and transparent support for narrow, short-sighted selfishness (some conservatives use it this way), or even is cynically exploited to make easy money (by many evangelists), or has degenerated into crude irrationalism (fundamentalist Protestant sects, "cults"), or is simply stagnant (Catholicism, main-line Protestantism). The nearest thing to a strong, widespread, dynamic religion that the West has seen in recent times has been the quasi-religion of leftism, but leftism today is fragmented and has no clear, unified inspiring goal.
今天的宗教，或者被人拿来廉价且显眼地支持狭隘短视的私利（一些保守派就是这样利用它的），或者甚至被人百无禁忌的拿来赚钱（许多福音派传道人就是这么做的），或者堕落成了粗陋的非理性主义（许多原教旨新教教派以及邪教就是这么做的），或者干脆陷入了停滞（天主教与主流新教）。近年来西方世界当中最接近于强大、传播广泛且富于活力的宗教的事物就是左派准宗教，但左派今天陷入了分裂，而且没有清晰统一、鼓舞人心的目标。
Thus there is a religious vaccuum in our society that could perhaps be filled by a religion focused on nature in opposition to technology. But it would be a mistake to try to concoct artificially a religion to fill this role. Such an invented religion would probably be a failure. Take the "Gaia" religion for example. Do its adherents REALLY believe in it or are they just play-acting? If they are just play-acting their religion will be a flop in the end.
因此，在我们的社会中出现了宗教真空，它多半可以由一个注重自然、反对技术的宗教填补。但是试图人为地拼揍出一门宗教来承担这一角色将是一个错误。人为创造的宗教多半会失败。比方说“盖亚”（Gaia）教，它的信徒是真信仰它还是仅仅在装腔作势呢？如果他们只是在装腔作势，那么他们的宗教最终会砸锅。
It is probably best not to try to introduce religion into the conflict of nature vs. technology unless you REALLY believe in that religion yourself and find that it arouses a deep, strong, genuine response in many other people.
最好不要把宗教引入自然与技术的冲突，除非你自己真正相信这门宗教，并发现它能在许多人心中激发出内心深处强烈且真实的共鸣
185. As for the negative consequences of eliminating industrial society -- well, you can't eat your cake and have it too. To gain one thing you have to sacrifice another.
185，至于把工业社会消灭掉会随之引发的负效应——怎么说呢，你不可能一边吃掉蛋糕一边还想在手上把着它不放——有得必有失。
186. Most people hate psychological conflict. For this reason they avoid doing any serious thinking about difficult social issues, and they like to have such issues presented to them in simple, black-and-white terms: THIS is all good and THAT is all bad. The revolutionary ideology should therefore be developed on two levels.
186，大多数人不喜欢心理冲突。由于这个原因，他们避免对困难的社会问题做任何严肃思考，他们喜欢看到这些问题以简单且非黑即白的方式摆在他们面前：这完全是好的而那完全是坏的。革命的意识形态因而必须在两个层次上展开。
187. On the more sophisticated level the ideology should address itself to people who are intelligent, thoughtful and rational. The object should be to create a core of people who will be opposed to the industrial system on a rational, thought-out basis, with full appreciation of the problems and ambiguities involved, and of the price that has to be paid for getting rid of the system. It is particularly important to attract people of this type, as they are capable people and will be instrumental in influencing others. These people should be addressed on as rational a level as possible. Facts should never intentionally be distorted and intemperate language should be avoided. This does not mean that no appeal can be made to the emotions, but in making such appeal care should be taken to avoid misrepresenting the truth or doing anything else that would destroy the intellectual respectability of the ideology.
187，在高层次上，意识形态必须针对高智力、有思想且理性的人们。目标是要建立一个核心，由基于理性与缜密考虑的工业体系反对者组成，这些人完全了解问题及其两面性，了解摆脱工业社会所必须付出的代价。吸引这种类型的人尤为重要，因为他们能起到影响他人的作用。对于这些人要尽量在理性的层次上做工作。不应故意歪曲事实，也不应使用过激的语言。这并不是说不能诉诸情感，而是说在这样做时必须注意避免歪曲真相，避免以任何方式毁掉意识形态在理智方面的体面。
188. On a second level, the ideology should be propagated in a simplified form that will enable the unthinking majority to see the conflict of technology vs. nature in unambiguous terms. But even on this second level the ideology should not be expressed in language that is so cheap, intemperate or irrational that it alienates people of the thoughtful and rational type. Cheap, intemperate propaganda sometimes achieves impressive short-term gains, but it will be more advantageous in the long run to keep the loyalty of a small number of intelligently committed people than to arouse the passions of an unthinking, fickle mob who will change their attitude as soon as someone comes along with a better propaganda gimmick. However, propaganda of the rabble-rousing type may be necessary when the system is nearing the point of collapse and there is a final struggle between rival ideologies to determine which will become dominant when the old world-view goes under.
188，在第二个层次上，应当以简化的形式宣传我们的意识形态。这种方式将能够使不事思考的大多数人以没有歧义的方式看到技术与自然的冲突。但即使在这个层次上，也不应以廉价过激或非理性的语言表达意识形态，因为这会疏远那些有思想和理性的人。廉价过激的宣传有时会获得令人印象深刻的短期效果，但从长远看。保持少数出于理智而献身的人们的忠诚。比激发一群没有头脑、变幻无常的乌合之众的热情更有价值。后者只要有个什么人搞出点更好的宣传花招马上就会改变态度。然而当体系已濒临崩溃之际，当决定哪种意识形态将在旧世界观破产之后占据主导地位的最后时刻来临时，纠台乌合之众的宣传也可能是必要的。
189. Prior to that final struggle, the revolutionaries should not expect to have a majority of people on their side. History is made by active, determined minorities, not by the majority, which seldom has a clear and consistent idea of what it really wants. Until the time comes for the final push toward revolution [31], the task of revolutionaries will be less to win the shallow support of the majority than to build a small core of deeply committed people. As for the majority, it will be enough to make them aware of the existence of the new ideology and remind them of it frequently; though of course it will be desirable to get majority support to the extent that this can be done without weakening the core of seriously committed people.
189，在最后的斗争到来之前，革命者不应指望多数人站在他们一边。历史是由积极坚定的少数人创造的，而不是由多数人决定的，多数人对他们的真正需要很少能有一个清晰一贯的想法。直到即将发动革命的前夕[31]，革命者的主要任务都不是赢得大多数人的泛泛支持，而是建立一个由甘愿献身的人们组成的小核心。至于多数人，只要让他们知道新的意识形态的存在并时时提醒他们就够了。当然，如果能掌握好分寸，既争取到多数人的支持又不伤害到认真投身的核心层，那自然再好不过。
[31]. (Paragraph 189) Assuming that such a final push occurs. Conceivably the industrial system might be eliminated in a somewhat gradual or piecemeal fashion. (see paragraphs 4, 167 and Note 4).
【31】（第189段）这里假设确实会有这样的一个最后时刻。同样可以想见的是，工业体系也可能以零敲碎打的渐进方式遭到消灭。
190. Any kind of social conflict helps to destabilize the system, but one should be careful about what kind of conflict one encourages. The line of conflict should be drawn between the mass of the people and the power-holding elite of industrial society (politicians, scientists, upper-level business executives, government officials, etc..). It should NOT be drawn between the revolutionaries and the mass of the people. For example, it would be bad strategy for the revolutionaries to condemn Americans for their habits of consumption. Instead, the average American should be portrayed as a victim of the advertising and marketing industry, which has suckered him into buying a lot of junk that he doesn't need and that is very poor compensation for his lost freedom. Either approach is consistent with the facts. It is merely a matter of attitude whether you blame the advertising industry for manipulating the public or blame the public for allowing itself to be manipulated. As a matter of strategy one should generally avoid blaming the public.
190，任何社会冲突都有助于导致体制不稳定，但我们必须小心谨慎，不能随便鼓励什么冲突。冲突线必须划在大众与工业社会的权力精英（政客、科学家、公司上层管理人员、政府官员，等等）之间，而不应划在革命者与大众之间。例如对于革命者来说，谴责美国人的消费习惯是很坏的战略。相反，一般美国人应当被描绘成广告和营销业的受害者，是广告和者销业欺骗他去购买大堆他并不需要的破烂，而相对于他所付出的自由代价来说，这是极其可怜的报偿。两种方式都符合事实。不同之处只是态度：你是归咎于广告业操纵大众，还是归咎于大众允许自已遭到操纵。作为战略，我们要避免责备大众。
191. One should think twice before encouraging any other social conflict than that between the power-holding elite (which wields technology) and the general public (over which technology exerts its power). For one thing, other conflicts tend to distract attention from the important conflicts (between power-elite and ordinary people, between technology and nature); for another thing, other conflicts may actually tend to encourage technologization, because each side in such a conflict wants to use technological power to gain advantages over its adversary. This is clearly seen in rivalries between nations. It also appears in ethnic conflicts within nations. For example, in America many black leaders are anxious to gain power for African Americans by placing back individuals in the technological power-elite. They want there to be many black government officials, scientists, corporation executives and so forth. In this way they are helping to absorb the African American subculture into the technological system. Generally speaking, one should encourage only those social conflicts that can be fitted into the framework of the conflicts of power--elite vs. ordinary people, technology vs nature.
191，除了权力精英（他们掌握技术）与一般大众（他们是技术施加淫威的对象）之间的冲突之外，革命者在鼓励任何其他冲突的时候都必须三思而后行。首先，其他冲突会转移斗争大方向（权力精英与普通人民之间的斗争，技术与自然之间的斗争），其次，其他冲突可能会鼓励技术化，因为在这种冲突中，双方都想利用技术压倒对手。这一点在国家的敌对之中有着清楚的体现，在国内民族冲突中也可以看到。例如在美国，许多黑人领导人急切希望让黑人挤入技术权力精英层来为非洲裔美国人争取权利。他们希望能够出现很多黑人政府官员、黑人科学家、黑人公司主管，等等。照这种方式，他们其实是在帮助技术体系同化吸收非洲裔美国人的亚文化。一般地说，我们应该只支持那些符合权力精英对普通人民、技术对自然这一框架的冲突。
家园 下 192. But the way to discourage ethnic conflict is NOT through militant advocacy of minority rights (see paragraphs 21, 29). Instead, the revolutionaries should emphasize that although minorities do suffer more or less disadvantage, this disadvantage is of peripheral significance. Our real enemy is the industrial-technological system, and in the struggle against the system, ethnic distinctions are of no importance.
192，但是阻止民族冲突的方法不是激进地主张少数民族的权利（参见21，29段）。相反，革命者应该强调指出，虽然少数民族确实或多或少地处于不利地位，但这种不利地位是无关紧要的。我们的真正敌人是工业—技术体系，而在反对这一体系的斗争中，民族的区别并不重要.
193. The kind of revolution we have in mind will not necessarily involve an armed uprising against any government. It may or may not involve physical violence, but it will not be a POLITICAL revolution. Its focus will be on technology and economics, not politics. [32]
193，我们想像的这种革命并不一定非要牵涉一场反对任何政府的武装起义。它可能牵涉也可能不牵涉到暴力，但它将不是一场政治革命。它的焦点是技术和经济，不是政治。[32]
[32]. (Paragraph 193) It is even conceivable (remotely) that the revolution might consist only of a massive change of attitudes toward technology resulting in a relatively gradual and painless disintegration of the industrial system. But if this happens we'll be very lucky. It's far more probably that the transition to a nontechnological society will be very difficult and full of conflicts and disasters.
【32】（第193段）我们甚至可以（远期）想像，革命仅仅由对于技术的态度发生的巨大转变构成，从而导致工业体系相对渐进且无痛苦的解体。但如果真是这样我们可谓非常幸运。更为可能的情况是向非技术社会的过渡将会十分痛苦，充满了冲突和灾难。
194. Probably the revolutionaries should even AVOID assuming political power, whether by legal or illegal means, until the industrial system is stressed to the danger point and has proved itself to be a failure in the eyes of most people. Suppose for example that some "green" party should win control of the United States Congress in an election. In order to avoid betraying or watering down their own ideology they would have to take vigorous measures to turn economic growth into economic shrinkage. To the average man the results would appear disastrous: There would be massive unemployment, shortages of commodities, etc. Even if the grosser ill effects could be avoided through superhumanly skillful management, still people would have to begin giving up the luxuries to which they have become addicted. Dissatisfaction would grow, the "green" party would be voted out of of fice and the revolutionaries would have suffered a severe setback. For this reason the revolutionaries should not try to acquire political power until the system has gotten itself into such a mess that any hardships will be seen as resulting from the failures of the industrial system itself and not from the policies of the revolutionaries. The revolution against technology will probably have to be a revolution by outsiders, a revolution from below and not from above.
194，很可能革命者甚至应当回避承担政治权力，无论是合法的还是不合法的，直到工业体系被压迫到了危险点，并在大多数人民眼中证实了自己的失败。例如，设想某个绿党在选举中赢得了对于美国国会的控制。为了避免背叛自己的意识形态或将其打折扣，他们就必须采取强有力措施将经济增长转变为经济缩减。在一般人看来，其结果会是灾难性的：大量失业，商品短缺，等等。即使能够通过超人般的管理而避免更为恶劣的影响，人们还是要放弃他们已经上了瘾的奢侈品。不满会增长，绿党会在选举中失败，而革命者会遭受一次严重的挫折。由于这个原因，革命者不应试图去获取政治权力，直至体制陷入严重的困境，直至人们把任何困难都看作是工业体系自身的失败而不是革命者政策的结果。反对技术的革命多半会是一场由外人发动的革命.一场自下而上的革命。
195. The revolution must be international and worldwide. It cannot be carried out on a nation-by-nation basis. Whenever it is suggested that the United States, for example, should cut back on technological progress or economic growth, people get hysterical and start screaming that if we fall behind in technology the Japanese will get ahead of us. Holy robots The world will fly off its orbit if the Japanese ever sell more cars than we do! (Nationalism is a great promoter of technology.) More reasonably, it is argued that if the relatively democratic nations of the world fall behind in technology while nasty, dictatorial nations like China, Vietnam and North Korea continue to progress, eventually the dictators may come to dominate the world. That is why the industrial system should be attacked in all nations simultaneously, to the extent that this may be possible. True, there is no assurance that the industrial system can be destroyed at approximately the same time all over the world, and it is even conceivable that the attempt to overthrow the system could lead instead to the domination of the system by dictators. That is a risk that has to be taken. And it is worth taking, since the difference between a "democratic" industrial system and one controlled by dictators is small compared with the difference between an industrial system and a non-industrial one. [33] It might even be argued that an industrial system controlled by dictators would be preferable, because dictator-controlled systems usually have proved inefficient, hence they are presumably more likely to break down. Look at Cuba.
195，这场革命必须在国际与世界范围内同步进行，不能一个国家一个国家地进行。无论什么时候，如果有国家——例如美国——提出要减慢技术进步或经济增长的速度，人们就会歇斯底里并开始大叫大嚷。如果我们在技术上落到日本后面，日本就会超过我们。机器人在上啊！要是日本卖汽车总是比我们多，这地球就会飞出轨道！（民族主义是技术的强大促进力量）更为理性的反对意见是，如果相对民主的国家在技术上落在了邪恶独裁的国家如中国、越南和北朝鲜后面，那么那些独裁者最终将有可能主宰世界。这就是为什么要尽可能同时在所有的国家对工业体系发动总攻击。确实，我们无法确保几乎同时摧毁世界范围内的工业体系，甚至可以想像推翻体系的企图反而会导致独裁者主宰体系。但我们必须冒这个险。这个险也值得冒：比工业体系与非工业体系之间的差别来，“民主”的工业体系与独裁的工业体系之间的差别是很小的。【33】甚至可以认为，独裁的工业体系更好，因为独裁的工业体系往往没有效率，因而也更容易崩溃。看看古巴就好了。
[33]. (Paragraph 195) The economic and technological structure of a society are far more important than its political structure in determining the way the average man lives (see paragraphs 95, 119 and Notes 16, 18).
【33】（第195段）一个社会的经济与技术结构在决定一般人的生活方式方面远比政治结构更加重要（见第95、119段以及附注16、18）
196. Revolutionaries might consider favoring measures that tend to bind the world economy into a unified whole. Free trade agreements like NAFTA and GATT are probably harmful to the environment in the short run, but in the long run they may perhaps be advantageous because they foster economic interdependence between nations. I will be eaier to destroy the industrial system on a worldwide basis if he world economy is so unified that its breakdown in any on major nation will lead to its breakdwon in all industrialized nations. In the long run they may perhaps be advantageous because they foster economic interdependence between nations. It will be easier to destroy the industrial system on a worldwide basis if the world economy is so unified that its breakdown in any one major nation will lead to its breakdown in all industrialized nations.
196，革命者也可以考虑支持促使世界经济一体化的措施。自由贸易协定，如北美自由贸易区和关贸总协定，从短期看对环境有害，但从长期看也许是有利的。因为它们促进了国与国之间相互的经济依赖。如果世界经济一体化到了任何一个主要国家的经济崩溃会导致所有工业化国家经济崩溃的程度，那么在全世界范围内摧毁工业体系就变得容易了。
197. Some people take the line that modern man has too much power, too much control over nature; they argue for a more passive attitude on the part of the human race. At best these people are expressing themselves unclearly, because they fail to distinguish between power for LARGE ORGANIZATIONS and power for INDIVIDUALS and SMALL GROUPS. It is a mistake to argue for powerlessness and passivity, because people NEED power. Modern man as a collective entity--that is, the industrial system--has immense power over nature, and we (FC) regard this as evil. But modern INDIVIDUALS and SMALL GROUPS OF INDIVIDUALS have far less power than primitive man ever did. Generally speaking, the vast power of "modern man" over nature is exercised not by individuals or small groups but by large organizations. To the extent that the average modern INDIVIDUAL can wield the power of technology, he is permitted to do so only within narrow limits and only under the supervision and control of the system. (You need a license for everything and with the license come rules and regulations). The individual has only those technological powers with which the system chooses to provide him. His PERSONAL power over nature is slight.
197，有些人认为现代人的权力过大，对自然控制过多，他们主张人类应采取更为消极一些的态度。往好里说这些人并未清楚表明自己的意见，因为他们未能区分大型组织的权力与个人和小群体的权力。主张放权与消极是错误的，因为人们需要权力。现代人作为一个集合的实体——即工业体系——具有凌驾自然之上的巨大权力，而我们（FC）将此看作邪恶。但是，现代个人以及个人组成的小群体的权力比原始人小得多。一般说来，“现代人”在自然之上的巨大权力不是由个人或小群体行使的，而是由大组织行使的。即使一般现代个人能够使用技术的力量，也要受到极大限制并且处在体系的监视和控制之下（干什么都得要许可证，而有证就有规章制度）。个人只能拥有体系选择给他的技术力量。他个人在自然之上的权力是很小的
198. Primitive INDIVIDUALS and SMALL GROUPS actually had considerable power over nature; or maybe it would be better to say power WITHIN nature. When primitive man needed food he knew how to find and prepare edible roots, how to track game and take it with homemade weapons. He knew how to protect himself from heat, cold, rain, dangerous animals, etc. But primitive man did relatively little damage to nature because the COLLECTIVE power of primitive society was negligible compared to the COLLECTIVE power of industrial society.
198.原始的个人和小群体实际上有着相当大的凌驾于自然之上的权力；或更为准确地说是拥有存在于自然之内的权力。当原始人需要食物时，他知道如何去寻找和调理可食用的根，知道如何跟踪猎物并用自制的武器猎获它。他知道如何保护自己不受热、冷、雨、野兽等的侵害。但是原始人相对来说很少破坏自然，因为原始社会的集体权力与工业化社会的集体权力相比是微不足道的。
199. Instead of arguing for powerlessness and passivity, one should argue that the power of the INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM should be broken, and that this will greatly INCREASE the power and freedom of INDIVIDUALS and SMALL GROUPS.
199.我们不应主张无力或消极，我们应主张打破工业体系的权力，而这将大大增加个人和小群体的权力和自由
200. Until the industrial system has been thoroughly wrecked, the destruction of that system must be the revolutionaries' ONLY goal. Other goals would distract attention and energy from the main goal. More importantly, if the revolutionaries permit themselves to have any other goal than the destruction of technology, they will be tempted to use technology as a tool for reaching that other goal. If they give in to that temptation, they will fall right back into the technological trap, because modern technology is a unified, tightly organized system, so that, in order to retain SOME technology, one finds oneself obliged to retain MOST technology, hence one ends up sacrificing only token amounts of technology.
200，在工业体系被彻底破坏之前，摧毁这一体系必须成为革命者的唯一目标。其他目标将会分散注意力和精力。更重要的的是，如果革命者允许自己既有摧毁技术之外的任何其他目标，他们就会受不住诱惑而把技术用作实现其他目标的工具。如果他们不能抵御这种诱惑，就会正中下怀地落入技术的陷阱，因为现代技术是统一紧密地组织起来的系统，所以，要保留某些技术，就必须保留绝大部分技术，因而最后也就只能象征性地牺牲掉一点技术
201. Suppose for example that the revolutionaries took "social justice" as a goal. Human nature being what it is, social justice would not come about spontaneously; it would have to be enforced. In order to enforce it the revolutionaries would have to retain central organization and control. For that they would need rapid long-distance transportation and communication, and therefore all the technology needed to support the transportation and communication systems. To feed and clothe poor people they would have to use agricultural and manufacturing technology. And so forth. So that the attempt to insure social justice would force them to retain most parts of the technological system. Not that we have anything against social justice, but it must not be allowed to interfere with the effort to get rid of the technological system.
201，假设革命者将社会正义作为一个目标。人性就是人性。社会正义不会自发实现，必须强制执行。为了强制执行社会正义，革命者就不得不保留中央组织和控制。为此，他们又会需要快速长距离运输与通讯，因而也需要所有支持运输和通讯系统的技术。为了让穷人吃饱穿暖，他就不得不使用农业和制造业技术，等等。因此。保障社会正义的企图会迫使他们保留绝大部分技术。我们并不反对社会正义，我们只是认为不应允许它干扰我们推翻技术体系的努力。
202. It would be hopeless for revolutionaries to try to attack the system without using SOME modern technology. If nothing else they must use the communications media to spread their message. But they should use modern technology for only ONE purpose: to attack the technological system.
202，革命者要攻击体系就必须使用某些技术，否则就没有成功的希望，他们至少必须使用传媒来传播他们的思想。但他们应当只将现代技术用于一个目的，那就是攻击技术体系
203. Imagine an alcoholic sitting with a barrel of wine in front of him. Suppose he starts saying to himself, "Wine isn't bad for you if used in moderation. Why, they say small amounts of wine are even good for you! It won't do me any harm if I take just one little drink..." Well you know what is going to happen. Never forget that the human race with technology is just like an alcoholic with a barrel of wine.
203，想像酒鬼坐在一桶酒前面。假设他开始对自己说：“喝酒只要不过量就没有坏处。嘿，他们说稍喝一点甚至有好处。如果我只喝一小口，这决不会有什么害处。”你当然知道接下来会发生什么事。不要忘记人类和技术在一起恰恰就像酒鬼和一桶酒在一起
204. Revolutionaries should have as many children as they can. There is strong scientific evidence that social attitudes are to a significant extent inherited. No one suggests that a social attitude is a direct outcome of a person's genetic constitution, but it appears that personality traits tend, within the context of our society, to make a person more likely to hold this or that social attitude. Objections to these findings have been raised, but objections are feeble and seem to be ideologically motivated. In any event, no one denies that children tend on the average to hold social attitudes similar to those of their parents. From our point of view it doesn't matter all that much whether the attitudes are passed on genetically or through childhood training. In either case the ARE passed on.
204，革命者应尽量多生孩子。有相当切实可信的科学证据表明，对于社会的观点在很大程度上会遗传。这并不是说某种社会观点是一个人的遗传构造的直接结果，但在我们的社会背景下，似乎是人格特性决定了一个人更可能持有这种或那种社会观点。对于这些发现的反对意见很多，但这些反对意见往往站不住脚，而且多半是出于意识形态的动机。不管怎样，没有人能够否认，一般说来孩子持有的社会观点与其父母类似。从我们的观点看，究竟观点是通过遗传还是通过幼时训练传承关系其实并不大。反正它们是传承的。
205. The trouble is that many of the people who are inclined to rebel against the industrial system are also concerned about the population problems, hence they are apt to have few or no children. In this way they may be handing the world over to the sort of people who support or at least accept the industrial system. To insure the strength of the next generation of revolutionaries the present generation must reproduce itself abundantly. In doing so they will be worsening the population problem only slightly. And the most important problem is to get rid of the industrial system, because once the industrial system is gone the world's population necessarily will decrease (see paragraph 167); whereas, if the industrial system survives, it will continue developing new techniques of food production that may enable the world's population to keep increasing almost indefinitely.
205，问题在于许多赞同反叛工业体系的人们也十分担忧人口问题，因此他们往往只要数量很少的孩子或不要孩子。这样他们就把世界拱手让给了那些支持或至少是接受工业体系的人们。为了确保下一代革命者的力量，这一代革命者必须大量繁殖后代。他们这样做也许会稍稍加重人口问题。然而最重要的是推翻工业体系，因为一旦工业体系没有了，世界人口必然会减少（参见167段）。而如果工业体系幸存下来，它就会继续发展粮食生产技术，使世界人口几乎是无限地增长下去
206. With regard to revolutionary strategy, the only points on which we absolutely insist are that the single overriding goal must be the elimination of modern technology, and that no other goal can be allowed to compete with this one. For the rest, revolutionaries should take an empirical approach. If experience indicates that some of the recommendations made in the foregoing paragraphs are not going to give good results, then those recommendations should be discarded.
206，关于革命的战略，我们绝对坚持一点：压倒一切的首要目标是消灭现代技术，任何其他目标都不允许与这个目标竞争。至于其他方面，革命者可以依据经验决定采取具体方法。如果经验表明，某些我们在前面段落推荐的方法效果不佳，那么这些方法就应被弃置一旁。
家园 日本的那个其实是舔黄，还贵族呢 掌握巨量资源搞一点各人爱好没什么了不起滴，把那些资源让更有才能的人搞会更好
家园 这就是痴人说梦了，或者叫拜金主义，左派掌握的资源比较少 右派掌握的资源多还搞不定掌握资源少的左派，自卑的是右派
当然了，右派有钱有势可以有这一点优越感，右派可以说左派穷所以自卑
可是钱的用处是有限滴，钱能解决的问题都不是问题，在钱不能解决的问题面前，右派是自卑的
家园 过去我们专注于国民幸福指数 而忽视了身边的贫困和贪腐——不丹首相
家园 30岁带着尊严死，还是活到70岁满满的心理疾病？ 大部分人怎么选很容易猜到。
家园 那是。三十岁时子女多半未成年， 这是家长走一个，留下来的只有苦难。
70岁时在离开，好歹多半能看到第三代的成长，而且保证未成年人有成年人的照顾，继续留下的希望大得多。