五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】道琼斯新高: 傻瓜在狂奔 -- 倥偬飞人

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    • 家园 Suckers Yes but Who?

      If you want to call a top or a bottom, professors or economists are the last person you want to ask for opinion. If the professor's theory is indeed going to materialize, the market would have at least touch the May low already. Instead you see the S&P makes steady higher lows and higher highs while the sentiment is no where near eupharia(recessions still on the headline; NYSE and NASDAQ short interests around year high; hedge funds and small speculators' have very modest long positions on futures market). I am not smart enough to figure out why his theory is flawed but takes a look at the chart it doesn't seem to agree. Remeber if you don't know who the sucker is, you probably are.

      • 家园 Interesting question

        but last time when I saw a similar question on Fortune about the US housing market, the next thing I know the bubble starts bursting and gets uglier by the day.

        The point is not to follow a trend which you know will lead you to impasse, but to get defensive or even take advantage of it.

    • 家园 我觉得是资金

      从房地产流向股市的缘故。

      我个人是不太赞同房市衰退会影响经济大势的说法,反而是房市过去几年吸入了太多资金,资金不在房市里就会流到其他行业。

    • 家园 这是资金流向的问题

      dowjones里头的大公司过去几年一直跟不上股市增长水平么。现在资金要跳出房地产跳出债卷市场跳出中小型股,不跑到mega corp去还能跑哪呢?

    • 家园 今年的window dressing来得早了点
    • 家园 我也不看好美国股市,卖了不少。
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