五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:【原创】道琼斯新高: 傻瓜在狂奔 -- 倥偬飞人

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  • 家园 【原创】道琼斯新高: 傻瓜在狂奔

    美国股市被认为是往往比经济萧条提前6个月做出反应,但是到明年3月经济会好转吗?如果不会,为什么道琼斯迭创新高呢?Roubini教授认为,这是傻瓜在奔跑,suckers' rally是也。俺自己也认为,可能不少大户在造势,到处发布毫无根据的好消息,然后赶紧出货,最后就是不可避免的跳水了。而且有人预测可能是可以和当年纳斯达克一样的大跳水(虽然不一定是这样哈)。

    Roubini认为经济衰退无可避免,而且股市是很难看的那种熊市,标准普尔将下跌28%!

    - 当前美国服务业发展的步伐是三年来最慢的时候;

    - 九月份房地产市场进一步恶化;

    - 世界最大的零售网络沃尔马销售成长在九月份下调到1.3%;

    - 美国工厂订单在7月份下降1%,八月份则没有增长,说明生产放缓;

    - 九月份宣布的解雇人数增长了54%(并不是当月解雇的人数),同月就业增长只有78000份工作;

    - 曼哈顿co-ops公寓价格下跌16%,新建房屋数量大增,情况继续恶化,纽约市明年会有两万个condo单位继续推出,加重市场压力!要知道往年一年新旧condo才卖出一万套!房地产商们使出吃奶的力气推销,为了卖出38万美元的房子,送游泳池,送礼券,甚至到了送豪华凌志越野车的地步!

    ICSC-UBS 连锁商店销售指数连续第四个星期下降,发出九月份零售业绩平平的清晰信号。九月份汽车销售总体上也很令人失望。油价回落到60美元也无法刺激经济恢复,因为还是很高,加上房市崩溃和利率提升的作用,对消费者的压力是很大的。

    这一切都说明经济将走向衰退!

    监控被强制出售的房产的网站外链出处报告:

    近年所谓只付利息以及可调利率抵押贷款大幅增加,如今到期要付本钱了,结果如何呢?

    8月份被强制出售的房屋,比7月份增加了24%!比去年增加了50%!!很多人无力支付,也借不到更多的钱,所以他们这些所谓“业主”的房子自行或者被强制出售了,忘记原来真正的业主是银行了吧?但是银行也没有赢,强制出售的价格和处置费用,只会带来亏损。

    该网站披露的被强制出售的房产,共有127万多处!如果是20万美元一套,那就是2500亿美元的市值,这背后隐藏的就是银行的巨额亏损啊。


    本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
    • 家园 商讨一些卖空的对象

      房产完蛋,首当其冲的就是subprime lender,但是他们的境况比家具店可要好多了,因为你要是自己的房子,不到山穷水尽一定会继续付款,这家具可是可有可无,随时可以不买的,更何况家具都是大开销,动辄上千的。

      低档货Bombay, CostPlus应该影响没那么大,IKEA不上市,而且更加可能在逆境中增加份额。我觉得最有机会大跌的是中档货,William Sonoma, Ethan Allen,款式未必比Bombay好多少,但是价格就差不少了。真正高档的反而影响不大。Ethan Allen股票还没怎么跌,是个卖空的好对象。

      • 家园 我觉得有点悬

        家具这个行业成本极低。ethanallen之类的要是觉得不妙了就可以搞大促销,估计业绩也不会差到哪里。家具行业的主要成本在销售渠道上。

    • 家园 参考一下:Roubini新的预测

      Roubini预测今年第二和第三季度的GDP成长,都非常地准确,可以说是经济学家中最为准确的,而大多数经济学家的预测都差的很远。

      Roubini又预测,今年第四季度GDP成长可能为0%!07年衰退。股市可能延续上升到圣诞节,但是第四季的恶劣数据会使其掉头向下,进入熊市。而S&P指数有机会下跌28%!大家可以拭目以待。

      Roubini's call for a recession sounds more real now

      Analysis: Slow growth could get slower

      NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Nouriel Roubini might be among the most bearish economists on Wall Street this year, but as shown again on Friday with the release of much weaker-than-expected third-quarter growth numbers, he's also been among the most accurate.

      That fact may be chilling, given that Roubini, a professor at the Sterns School of Economics at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, predicts a housing-led recession will be in place by the first quarter of 2007, or in the second quarter at the latest.

      Few on Wall Street dare make that prediction. Economists employed by investment banks, of course, may have an implicit interest in being cheerleaders for economic growth. Growth implies earnings growth and stock market gains, and therefore more money for their firms. Investors won't be drawn to the stock market if they know a recession is coming.

      Federal Reserve officials, likewise, continue to predict a soft-landing for the economy even as they again left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

      Yet, the facts remain that Roubini's forecasts are amongst the most accurate - and prescient -- so far.

      Third-quarter gross domestic production slowed dramatically to 1.6% in the third quarter from 2.6% in the second quarter and 5.6% in the first, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

      Roubini had forecast the GDP to come in at 1.5%, while the average forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch called for growth of 2%, as did most other surveys.

      And Roubini had been predicting this number since July, while at that time, economists on average expected third-quarter growth to come in at 3.1%.

      Similarly, for the second quarter, economists on average had expected the GDP to grow at 3.2%, while growth came in at 2.6%. Roubini had forecast growth of 2.5%.

      Now, looking forward, many Wall Street economists are forecasting a fourth-quarter rebound. "Expect today the usual spin with the soft-landing optimists - who were altogether wrong on second-quarter growth and even more wrong on third-quarter growth - having already started to spin the fairy tale of a fourth-quarter rebound," Roubini wrote on his blog Friday.

      The stock market, meanwhile, took the news of weak third-quarter growth in stride on Friday.

      The losses were cushioned by expectations of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

      The sharp drop in oil and energy prices seen in recent months are often cited by Wall Street bulls as cushioning the economic slowdown, as they lessen pressures on inflation and on consumers' wallets.

      "Unfortunately this interpretation confuses cause and effect," Roubini wrote. "Whenever the U.S. and the global economy have experienced a recession, oil and commodity prices sharply fell at the outset and during such a recession, as low global demand leads to lower commodities demand."

      Similarly, the stock market expects that the Fed's rate cuts will prevent the economy from dipping into negative territory. But the current problem, Roubini says, is a glut of homes and of automobiles which, as most gluts, tends to be interest-rate insensitive.

      Stocks on the Dow and the S&P have recently broken through all-time highs, seemingly all but completely dismissing predictions of a recession.

      One explanation offered by many Wall Street economists, and by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, for the divergence between what the stock market and what the bond market have been signaling is that massive demand for long-term bonds have kept their price high and their yields unusually low.

      But Roubini has a more simple explanation: While the bond market is correct, the stock market can remain delusional for a long while.

      Back in March of 2001, the stock market and most Wall Street economists were still predicting that the economy would not experience a recession, while growth had already dipped in negative territory and would stay below zero for another quarter, Roubini notes.

      It was only in June, when evidence of a recession was at hand, that the market sold off.

      This time around, Roubini says the stock market can continue rising through Christmas based on expectations that the Fed will cut rates and stave off a recession. But he expects that the fourth-quarter GDP -- to be released in January -- will be an eye-opener, coming in at, or near, 0%, and will likely cause the market to sell off.

      By then, "expect a nasty bear market in equities - in the average recession the S&P falls by 28% - once the delusional dream of permabulls leads them to wake up to the reality of the nasty and deep recession ahead," Roubini wrote.

    • 家园 【文摘】经济放缓到1.6%,比大多数预测还要差

      大多数经济学家预测第三季度GDP成长2.1%,刚刚公布的数据为1.6%。谁预测的最准确?Roubini教授!他预测为1.5%。

      但是通膨压力还是不小,九月份annualized为2.9%,FED在这种情况下不可能调低利率,反而调高的可能性更大!

      这些消息,估计会对消费者信心造成打击!

      房市仍然疲弱,而被强制拍卖的房产,继续以惊人的速度增加,已经超过134万处!外链出处

      AP

      Housing Market a Drag on Economic Growth

      Friday October 27, 8:44 am ET

      By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

      Economic Growth Slows to 1.6 Percent Pace in 3rd Quarter, Worst in More Than 3 Years

      WASHINGTON (AP) -- Economic growth slowed to a crawl in the third quarter, advancing at a pace of just 1.6 percent, the worst in more than three years.

      The latest snapshot of the economy, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, showed that the slumping housing market figured prominently in the economy's dramatic loss of momentum. Investment in homebuilding was cut by the biggest amount since early 1991.

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      The reading on gross domestic product was weaker than the 2.1 percent pace many economists were forecasting.

      Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic standing. Friday's report provided the last GDP reading before the Nov. 7 elections.

      Economic matters are expected to influence voters' choices when they go to the polls. President Bush's approval rating on the economy is at 40 percent, among all adults surveyed in an AP-Ipsos poll. That remains near his lowest ratings. The people surveyed trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy.

      The third quarter's 1.6 percent growth rate was the weakest since the first quarter of 2003, when the economy grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate.

      The latest performance underscores just how much speed the economy has lost this year.

      In the opening quarter, the economy grew at a brisk 5.6 percent pace, the strongest growth spurt in 2 1/2 years. But growth slowed to a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter as consumers and businesses tightened the belt in response to the toll of rising energy prices and the impact of two-plus years of rising borrowing costs.

      In the third quarter, consumers held up well, though. They boosted their spending at a rate of 3.1 percent, up from a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter.

      Businesses, meanwhile, increased spending on equipment and software at a 6.4 percent pace in the third quarter, an improvement from the 1.4 percent rate of decline in the second period.

      The economy's softness in the third quarter stemmed in large part from the cooldown in the once-hot housing market.

      Spending on home building dropped at a rate of 17.4 percent in the third quarter. That was the biggest drop since the first quarter of 1991 when such spending was sliced at a 21.7 percent pace.

      Weak inventory building by businesses and the bloated trade deficit also played roles in weighing down economic activity in the third quarter.

      An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed that core prices -- excluding food and energy -- advanced at a rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter, which was down from 2.7 percent in the second quarter.

      Over the last 12 months, however, this inflation measure rose by 2.4 percent, the largest annual increase since 1995.

      Energy prices, which had surged in the summer, have since calmed down.

      Gas prices are now hovering around $2.23 a gallon nationwide, compared with more than $3 a gallon in early summer. Oil prices are now just over $61 a barrel, down from $77.03, a record high close in mid-July.

      That is supposed to help ease inflation and lead to better economic activity.

      Lower energy prices leave people and companies with more money to spend on other things. If they spend and invest, that adds to economic growth. Many economists believe the economy will do better in the current October-to-December quarter, perhaps clocking in close to 3 percent.

      The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday for the third meeting in a row. The Fed had hoisted rates 17 times since June 2004 to fend off inflation. The Fed's goal is to slow the economy sufficiently to thwart inflation but not so much that it tips into recession.

      • 家园 这个1.6%还要下调,因为这仅仅是个暂时数据

        有人在网上算过,很可能只有0.6%,低于通胀,哈哈,就是说已经开始进入经济衰退,再过两个季度,各大企业就可能开始裁人了。

        Pimco本来预测今年年底开始降息,太激进了,现在调整为明年年中,看来应该差不多。现在是大选前,这种坏消息已经掩盖修饰了不少,等到大选以后,坏消息才会真正涌现,到时就好看咯。

        飞人近来short哪几个股票?

        • 家园 果然怀疑美国政府作了手脚

          Bloomberg报道美国政府为了选举,有可能对第三季度的GDP数据做了粉饰,真实的成长可能只有0.9%! 最明显的就是汽车行业明明不景气,美国商务部经济分析局却公布了汽车生产增长了26%!自打嘴巴的是美国联储局公布的数据表明,第三季度汽车生产下降了12%!如果确实如此,Roubini认为第三季度的GDP成长可能低于1%的看法,也是很准确的。华尔街是不是也配合共和党搞了这么一出连创新高啊?NND, 刑不上大夫, 美国政府这样编造数据,不仅仅欺骗选民,还欺骗了全世界的投资人,不需要负责任的吗?

          This mismeasurement of motor vehicle production in Q3 is highly suspicious coming about ten days before the US mid-term elections. It is also highly suspicious as it is not clear how the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) at the Department of Commerce could have made such a gross mistake when seeing an alleged 26% increase in auto production that was patently at odds with many facts. During Q3 all the major US automakers - Ford, GM, Chrysler - announced production cuts for both Q3 and Q4. So, how could the folks at BEA argue and estimate that production went up by a whopping 26%? These data also do not make any sense as the Federal Reserve Board data on automotive production in Q3 show a sharp fall in production of motor vehicles of 12% (see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/g17.pdf, Table 1).

          外链出处

          • 家园 更加有戏可看的是经济衰退伴随石油回涨

            Stagflation是最可怕的境况,但也是最可能的境况。对手中有资本的人来说,倒是最好的状况,70年代就出现过,一边是经济衰退,另一边是商品大涨,两者的背景都是美元危机。

            OPEC有办法控制石油不跌,只要减少产量就行了,特别是现在控制石油的国家如俄国、委内瑞拉都与美国不和,而且控制价格能够对他们的经济有助。反过来说,他们无法控制石油不涨,因为石油储量还有多少是大自然的杰作,人力控制不了。所以赌石油资源在中期以内是不对称赌博,只要石油跌到50多我就吸纳,涨到80我就卖一点。今年运气好,没有飓风,今年没有不代表明年没有,今后3年,只要来一个大的,未必需要Katrina的规模,那就够恐慌了。这还不算恐怖袭击石油措施的几率呢。

            石油重见40元美元,恐怕要新美元才能做到了,我们所知的美元,全国上下都希望贬,问题是怎么贬。美国是个负债国,事实破产,美元贬值对美国有益无害,全世界的老大们也知道,大家现在就是要有秩序撤退。

            • 家园 对中国是3重坏消息

              看最近赖斯去不去沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克 去的话 油价就会跌

              • 家园 这跟中国没关,美国衰退是谁都阻挡不了的

                出来混的总要还的,赖斯管得了沙特,管不了南美、俄国、伊朗,况且沙特上一年是美元储备增长最大的国家,比中国还多,不过他们总的储备没有中国那么多而已。沙特又不是傻瓜,也要为自己的利益筹划一下,本来打算拿着美元换美国的资产,谁知道要买港口跟中国买美国资产一个结果,被否决了。美元是个越来越不受欢迎的币种,有得好跌。

                你这么想好了,中国的美元可以买战略储备好像石油啊、铁矿啊,沙特这些本身就是有石油的难道还去买石油不成?现在就投资自己的基建,工程规模可以跟中国一级城市相比,也拉动了建造业有关的商品。但是土地就那么多,也不能建造太多吧。70年代美元危机沙特就买黄金,想不到过了这么多年,还是没有其他的可买,最后还是会回到买黄金上面。

          • 家园 修正后的数据表明:美国经济已经陷入衰退

            经济成长0.9%

            通货膨胀2.9%

            这是衰退的证据。下一个季度可能会更差!

          • 家园 美国要出妖蛾子
        • 家园 大笔买进trust,密切关注卖空对象

          有机会再增持crm和cfc的puts。

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