主题：【原创】道琼斯新高： 傻瓜在狂奔 -- 倥偬飞人

房产完蛋，首当其冲的就是subprime lender,但是他们的境况比家具店可要好多了，因为你要是自己的房子，不到山穷水尽一定会继续付款，这家具可是可有可无，随时可以不买的，更何况家具都是大开销，动辄上千的。

低档货Bombay, CostPlus应该影响没那么大，IKEA不上市，而且更加可能在逆境中增加份额。我觉得最有机会大跌的是中档货，William Sonoma, Ethan Allen，款式未必比Bombay好多少，但是价格就差不少了。真正高档的反而影响不大。Ethan Allen股票还没怎么跌，是个卖空的好对象。

Roubini预测今年第二和第三季度的GDP成长，都非常地准确，可以说是经济学家中最为准确的，而大多数经济学家的预测都差的很远。

Roubini又预测，今年第四季度GDP成长可能为0%！07年衰退。股市可能延续上升到圣诞节，但是第四季的恶劣数据会使其掉头向下，进入熊市。而S&P指数有机会下跌28%！大家可以拭目以待。

Roubini's call for a recession sounds more real now

Analysis: Slow growth could get slower

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Nouriel Roubini might be among the most bearish economists on Wall Street this year, but as shown again on Friday with the release of much weaker-than-expected third-quarter growth numbers, he's also been among the most accurate.

That fact may be chilling, given that Roubini, a professor at the Sterns School of Economics at New York University and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, predicts a housing-led recession will be in place by the first quarter of 2007, or in the second quarter at the latest.

Few on Wall Street dare make that prediction. Economists employed by investment banks, of course, may have an implicit interest in being cheerleaders for economic growth. Growth implies earnings growth and stock market gains, and therefore more money for their firms. Investors won't be drawn to the stock market if they know a recession is coming.

Federal Reserve officials, likewise, continue to predict a soft-landing for the economy even as they again left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Yet, the facts remain that Roubini's forecasts are amongst the most accurate - and prescient -- so far.

Third-quarter gross domestic production slowed dramatically to 1.6% in the third quarter from 2.6% in the second quarter and 5.6% in the first, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

Roubini had forecast the GDP to come in at 1.5%, while the average forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch called for growth of 2%, as did most other surveys.

And Roubini had been predicting this number since July, while at that time, economists on average expected third-quarter growth to come in at 3.1%.

Similarly, for the second quarter, economists on average had expected the GDP to grow at 3.2%, while growth came in at 2.6%. Roubini had forecast growth of 2.5%.

Now, looking forward, many Wall Street economists are forecasting a fourth-quarter rebound. "Expect today the usual spin with the soft-landing optimists - who were altogether wrong on second-quarter growth and even more wrong on third-quarter growth - having already started to spin the fairy tale of a fourth-quarter rebound," Roubini wrote on his blog Friday.

The stock market, meanwhile, took the news of weak third-quarter growth in stride on Friday.

The losses were cushioned by expectations of a rebound in the fourth quarter, according to Michael Metz, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer & Co.

The sharp drop in oil and energy prices seen in recent months are often cited by Wall Street bulls as cushioning the economic slowdown, as they lessen pressures on inflation and on consumers' wallets.

"Unfortunately this interpretation confuses cause and effect," Roubini wrote. "Whenever the U.S. and the global economy have experienced a recession, oil and commodity prices sharply fell at the outset and during such a recession, as low global demand leads to lower commodities demand."

Similarly, the stock market expects that the Fed's rate cuts will prevent the economy from dipping into negative territory. But the current problem, Roubini says, is a glut of homes and of automobiles which, as most gluts, tends to be interest-rate insensitive.

Stocks on the Dow and the S&P have recently broken through all-time highs, seemingly all but completely dismissing predictions of a recession.

One explanation offered by many Wall Street economists, and by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, for the divergence between what the stock market and what the bond market have been signaling is that massive demand for long-term bonds have kept their price high and their yields unusually low.

But Roubini has a more simple explanation: While the bond market is correct, the stock market can remain delusional for a long while.

Back in March of 2001, the stock market and most Wall Street economists were still predicting that the economy would not experience a recession, while growth had already dipped in negative territory and would stay below zero for another quarter, Roubini notes.

It was only in June, when evidence of a recession was at hand, that the market sold off.

This time around, Roubini says the stock market can continue rising through Christmas based on expectations that the Fed will cut rates and stave off a recession. But he expects that the fourth-quarter GDP -- to be released in January -- will be an eye-opener, coming in at, or near, 0%, and will likely cause the market to sell off.

By then, "expect a nasty bear market in equities - in the average recession the S&P falls by 28% - once the delusional dream of permabulls leads them to wake up to the reality of the nasty and deep recession ahead," Roubini wrote.

大多数经济学家预测第三季度GDP成长2.1%，刚刚公布的数据为1.6%。谁预测的最准确？Roubini教授！他预测为1.5%。

但是通膨压力还是不小，九月份annualized为2.9%，FED在这种情况下不可能调低利率，反而调高的可能性更大！

这些消息，估计会对消费者信心造成打击！

房市仍然疲弱，而被强制拍卖的房产，继续以惊人的速度增加，已经超过134万处！外链出处

AP

Housing Market a Drag on Economic Growth

Friday October 27, 8:44 am ET

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Economic Growth Slows to 1.6 Percent Pace in 3rd Quarter, Worst in More Than 3 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Economic growth slowed to a crawl in the third quarter, advancing at a pace of just 1.6 percent, the worst in more than three years.

The latest snapshot of the economy, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, showed that the slumping housing market figured prominently in the economy's dramatic loss of momentum. Investment in homebuilding was cut by the biggest amount since early 1991.

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The reading on gross domestic product was weaker than the 2.1 percent pace many economists were forecasting.

Gross domestic product measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the best barometer of the country's economic standing. Friday's report provided the last GDP reading before the Nov. 7 elections.

Economic matters are expected to influence voters' choices when they go to the polls. President Bush's approval rating on the economy is at 40 percent, among all adults surveyed in an AP-Ipsos poll. That remains near his lowest ratings. The people surveyed trusted Democrats more than Republicans to handle the economy.

The third quarter's 1.6 percent growth rate was the weakest since the first quarter of 2003, when the economy grew at a 1.2 percent annual rate.

The latest performance underscores just how much speed the economy has lost this year.

In the opening quarter, the economy grew at a brisk 5.6 percent pace, the strongest growth spurt in 2 1/2 years. But growth slowed to a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter as consumers and businesses tightened the belt in response to the toll of rising energy prices and the impact of two-plus years of rising borrowing costs.

In the third quarter, consumers held up well, though. They boosted their spending at a rate of 3.1 percent, up from a 2.6 percent pace in the second quarter.

Businesses, meanwhile, increased spending on equipment and software at a 6.4 percent pace in the third quarter, an improvement from the 1.4 percent rate of decline in the second period.

The economy's softness in the third quarter stemmed in large part from the cooldown in the once-hot housing market.

Spending on home building dropped at a rate of 17.4 percent in the third quarter. That was the biggest drop since the first quarter of 1991 when such spending was sliced at a 21.7 percent pace.

Weak inventory building by businesses and the bloated trade deficit also played roles in weighing down economic activity in the third quarter.

An inflation gauge tied to the GDP report showed that core prices -- excluding food and energy -- advanced at a rate of 2.3 percent in the third quarter, which was down from 2.7 percent in the second quarter.

Over the last 12 months, however, this inflation measure rose by 2.4 percent, the largest annual increase since 1995.

Energy prices, which had surged in the summer, have since calmed down.

Gas prices are now hovering around $2.23 a gallon nationwide, compared with more than $3 a gallon in early summer. Oil prices are now just over $61 a barrel, down from $77.03, a record high close in mid-July.

That is supposed to help ease inflation and lead to better economic activity.

Lower energy prices leave people and companies with more money to spend on other things. If they spend and invest, that adds to economic growth. Many economists believe the economy will do better in the current October-to-December quarter, perhaps clocking in close to 3 percent.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday for the third meeting in a row. The Fed had hoisted rates 17 times since June 2004 to fend off inflation. The Fed's goal is to slow the economy sufficiently to thwart inflation but not so much that it tips into recession.