主题：【原创】奔向复苏或者奔向危机的2007 -- 葡萄
家园 印度在经济上如此敌对中国，给他一点动乱也是对的 他敬酒不吃吃罚酒。和他经济合作他还敌视，也不知道谁更需要稳定环境发展经济。印度经济才有点起头，这是生事对中国有利。既然他要与中国对着干，那就打掉潜在对手的好势头。藏南对中国是局部问题，对印度是全局问题。说不准打一仗中国西部经济就上去了呢。
家园 【文摘】美CIA 报告：中 国 全 面 超 过 印 度 美CIA 报告：中 国 全 面 超 过 印 度
小结：
人 口： 印度 将 在 20-25 年 间， 追 上 中 国 的 人口，达 到 15 亿。
政 治： 中 国 中 央 集 权，多 党 参 议，政 治 稳 定。 印 度 太 多 的 政 党， 事 情 往 往 议 而 难 决。
经济： 中 国 全 面 超 过 印 度。
卫生教育： 中 国 全 面 超过 印 度。
广播电视通 讯和因特网： 中 国 全 面 超过 印 度。 其中中国因特网用户几 近 印 度的两倍， 标志 中 国 计算机电子内 需 市 场 业 已 成 熟， 并 不断 壮大。
军事： 2005年，中国军事开支是 印度的五倍。
来源：
https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/index.html
家园 续 Area (Km2)
China: total: 9,596,960 sq km ;land: 9,326,410 sq km ;water: 270,550 sq km
India: total: 3,287,590 sq km;land: 2,973,190 sq km ;water: 314,400 sq km
Natural resources:
China : coal, iron ore, petroleum, natural gas, mercury, tin, tungsten, antimony, manganese, molybdenum, vanadium, magnetite, aluminum, lead, zinc, uranium, hydropower potential (world's largest)
India: coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), iron ore, manganese, mica, bauxite, titanium ore, chromite, natural gas, diamonds, petroleum, limestone, arable land
Land use:
China: arable land: 14.86% ,permanent crops: 1.27% ,other: 83.87% (2005)
India: arable land: 48.83% ;permanent crops: 2.8% ;other: 48.37% (2005)
Population:
China: 1,313,973,713 (July 2006 est.)
India: 1,095,351,995 (July 2006 est.)
Population growth rate:
China: 0.59% (2006 est.)
India: 1.38% (2006 est.)
Birth rate:
China: 13.25 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)
India: 22.01 births/1,000 population (2006 est.)
Death rate:
China: 6.97 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)
India: 8.18 deaths/1,000 population (2006 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
China: total: 23.12 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 20.6 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 25.94 deaths/1,000 live births (2006 est.)
India: total: 54.63 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 55.18 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 54.05 deaths/1,000 live births (2006 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
China: total population: 72.58 years.
India: total population: 64.71 years
HIV/AIDS - adult prevalence rate:
China: 0.1% (2003 est.)
India: 0.9% (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - people living with HIV/AIDS:
China: 840,000 (2003 est.)
India: 5.1 million (2001 est.)
HIV/AIDS - deaths:
China: 44,000 (2003 est.)
India: 310,000 (2001 est.)
Ethnic groups:
China: Han Chinese 91.9%, Zhuang, Uygur, Hui, Yi, Tibetan, Miao, Manchu, Mongol, Buyi, Korean, and other nationalities 8.1%
India: Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid and other 3% (2000)
Religions:
China: Daoist (Taoist), Buddhist, Christian 3%-4%, Muslim 1%-2% note: officially atheist (2002 est.)
India: Hindu 80.5%, Muslim 13.4%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.9%, other 1.8%, unspecified 0.1% (2001 census)
Literacy:
definition: age 15 and over can read and write
China: total population: 90.9%;male: 95.1% ;female: 86.5% (2002) definition: age 15 and over can read and write
India: total population: 59.5%; male: 70.2%; female: 48.3% (2003 est.)
Languages:
China: Chinese
India: English enjoys associate status but is the most important language for national, political, and commercial communication; Hindi is the national language and primary tongue of 30% of the people; there are 14 other official languages: Bengali, Telugu, Marathi, Tamil, Urdu, Gujarati, Malayalam, Kannada, Oriya, Punjabi, Assamese, Kashmiri, Sindhi, and Sanskrit; Hindustani is a popular variant of Hindi/Urdu spoken widely throughout northern India but is not an official language
Government type:
China: Communist state
India: federal republic
Independence:
China: 221 BC (unification under the Qin or Ch'in Dynasty); 1 January 1912 (Manchu Dynasty replaced by a Republic); 1 October 1949 (People's Republic established)
India: 15 August 1947 (from UK)
Political parties and leaders:
China: Chinese Communist Party or CCP [HU Jintao]; eight registered small parties controlled by CCP note -no substantial political opposition groups exist, although the government has identified the Falungong spiritual movement and the China Democracy Party as subversive groups
India has dozens of national and regional political parties.
Economy - overview:
GDP (purchasing power parity):
China: $8.883 trillion (2005 est.)
India: $3.666 trillion (2005 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
China: $2.225 trillion (2005 est.)
India: $719.8 billion (2005 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
China: 10.2% (official data) (2005 est.)
India: 8.4% (2005 est.)
GDP - per capita (PPP):
China: $6,800 (2005 est.)
India: $3,400 (2005 est.)
GDP - composition by sector:
China: agriculture: 12.5%; industry: 47.3% ;services: 40.3%
note: industry includes construction (2005 est.)
India: agriculture: 18.6% ;industry: 27.6% ;services: 53.8% (2005 est.)
Labor force:
China: 791.4 million (2005 est.)
India: 496.4 million (2005 est.)
Labor force - by occupation:
China: agriculture: 49% ;industry: 22% ;services: 29% (2003 est.)
India: agriculture: 60%;industry: 17% ;services: 23% (1999)
- 复 续
家园 续 Unemployment rate:
China: 9% official registered unemployment in urban areas in 2004; substantial unemployment and underemployment in rural areas; an official Chinese journal estimated overall unemployment (including rural areas) for 2003 at 20% (2005 est.)
India: 8.9% (2005 est.)
Population below poverty line:
China: 10% (2001 est.)
India: 25% (2002 est.)
Household income or consumption by percentage share:
China: lowest 10%: 2.4%;highest 10%: 30.4% (1998)
India: lowest 10%: 3.5%;highest 10%: 33.5% (1997).
Distribution of family income - Gini index:
China: 44 (2002)
India: 32.5 (2000)
Inflation rate (consumer prices):
China: 1.8% (2005 est.)
India: 4.2% (2005 est.)
Investment (gross fixed):
China: 44.4% of GDP (2005 est.)
India: 28.1% of GDP (2005 est.)
Budget:
China: revenues: $392.1 billion,expenditures: $424.3 billion; including capital expenditures of $NA (2005 est.)
India: revenues: $111.2 billion ,expenditures: $135.8 billion; including capital expenditures of $15 billion (2005 est.)
Public debt:
China: 24.4% of GDP (2005 est.)
India: 53.8% of GDP (federal and state debt combined) (2005 est.)
Industrial production growth rate:
China: 29.5% (2005 est.)
India: 7.9% (2005 est.)
Electricity - production:
China: 2.19 trillion kWh (2004)
India: 556.8 billion kWh (2003)
Electricity - consumption:
China: 2.17 trillion kWh (2004)
India: 519 billion kWh (2003)
Electricity - exports:
China: 10.6 billion kWh (2003)
India: 187 million kWh (2003)
Electricity - imports:
China: 1.546 billion kWh (2003)
India: 1.4 billion kWh (2003)
Oil - production:
China: 3.504 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 785,000 bbl/day (2005 est.)
Oil - consumption:
China: 6.391 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 2.32 million bbl/day (2003 est.)
Oil - exports:
China: 340,300 bbl/day (2004)
India: 350,000 bbl/day
Oil - imports:
China: 3.226 million bbl/day (2004)
India: 2.09 million bbl/day
Oil - proved reserves:
China: 18.26 billion bbl (2004)
India: 5.7 billion bbl (2005 est.)
Natural gas - production:
China: 35.02 billion cu m (2003)
India: 27.1 billion cu m (2003 est.)
Natural gas - consumption:
China: 33.44 billion cu m (2003 est.)
India: 27.1 billion cu m (2003 est.)
Natural gas - exports:
China: 2.79 billion cu m (2004)
India: 0 cu m (2001 est.)
Natural gas - proved reserves:
China: 2.53 trillion cu m (2004)
India: 853.5 billion cu m (2005)
Current account balance:
China: $160.8 billion (2005 est.)
India: $-12.95 billion (2005 est.)
Exports:
China: $752.2 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
India: $76.23 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Imports:
China: $631.8 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
India: $113.1 billion f.o.b. (2005 est.)
Reserves of foreign exchange and gold:
China: $825.6 billion (2005 est.)
India: $136 billion (2005 est.)
Debt - external:
China: $252.8 billion (2005 est.)
India: $125.5 billion (2005 est.)
Communications
Telephones - main lines in use:
China: 350.433 million (2005)
India: 49.75 million (2005)
Telephones - mobile cellular:
China 393.428 million (2005)
India: 69,193,321 (2006)
Radio broadcast stations:
China: AM 369, FM 259, shortwave 45 (1998)
India: AM 153, FM 91, shortwave 68 (1998)
Television broadcast stations:
China: 3,240 (of which 209 are operated by China Central Television, 31 are provincial TV stations, and nearly 3,000 are local city stations) (1997)
India: 562 (of which 82 stations have 1 kW or greater power and 480 stations have less than 1 kW of power) (1997)
Internet hosts:
China: 187,508 (2005)
India: 787,543 (2005)
Internet users:
China: 111 million (2005)
India: 60 million (2005)
Transportation
Airports:
China: 486 (2006)
India: 341 (2006)
Airports - with paved runways:
China: total: 403,over 3,047 m: 56; 2,438 to 3,047 m: 127
(2006)
India: total: 243, over 3,047 m: 17; 2,438 to 3,047 m: 51 (2006)
Airports - with unpaved runways:
China: total: 83
India: total: 98
Heliports:
China: 32 (2006)
India: 28 (2006)
Railways:
China: total: 74,408 km
standard gauge: 74,408 km 1.435-m gauge (19,303 km electrified) (2004)
India: total: 63,230 km
broad gauge: 45,718 km 1.676-m gauge (16,528 km electrified)
narrow gauge: 14,406 km 1.000-m gauge (165 km electrified); 3,106 km 0.762-m gauge and 0.610-m gauge (2005)
Roadways:
China: total: 1,809,829 km
paved: 1,447,682 km (with at least 29,745 km of expressways)
unpaved: 362,147 km (2003)
India: total: 3,851,440 km
paved: 2,411,001 km
unpaved: 1,440,439 km (2002)
Waterways:
China: 123,964 km (2003)
India: 14,500 km
note: 5,200 km on major rivers and 485 km on canals suitable for mechanized vessels (2005)
Merchant marine:
China: total: 1,723 ships
India: total: 316 ships
Ports and terminals:
China: 7,
India: 9, Chennai, Haldia, Jawaharal Nehru, Kandla, Kolkata (Calcutta), Mumbai (Bombay), New Mangalore, Vishakhapatnam
家园 去bharat-rakshak论坛可收集印度最新经济信息 里面的经济版地址是：
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewforum.php?f=2&sid=12a8685de3f55fc2dd36b570e20a4954
如果习惯看英文，可以看到不少最新印度经济信息。
也有些中国人与印度人对吵，挺好玩的。里面印度贴子的水平在印度人中就算不错的了，但我判断他们的思辩层次仍是相当糟糕。中国的愤怒青年比起他们来，得算是见多识广深思熟虑了。
家园 多谢,顺便提个最近和朋友分析的一些观点与结论 第一,明年是个转折点,即使不是历史的分水岭也是诱发利益再分配的一个开始,各路玩家都做好了准备准备开牌了.
第二,最近的粮食期货暴涨很可能是明年粮食期货震荡的预演,40天里美国小麦上涨34%的回报足够是全世界玩家心动.
第三,我们认为明年长江会有风险,大堤出不出问题关系才是重大.中央查到武汉,事出有因.
另:地址保存了,多谢陈经兄.
家园 预期导致近一步短缺 也许明年粮食的总产量可以达到人类的需求，但是出于对未来不确定的担忧，各个国家会限制出口，进一步加剧国际市场上的短缺，这点其实中国人该有深刻的记忆，当年市场上风闻盐会涨价，结果所有人都去买，市场上一下子买不到了，还包括日用品电器，我印象中最厉害的是88年，其实市场的短缺很大程度来自人们的恐慌心理，放大到国际市场，那就有可能演变成灾难，要是某些负面消息加剧人们的担忧，最起码，市场上的短缺是无法避免的，所以，中国人趁现在搞好储备是上策。
家园 偶尔看到的一篇好文 不知葡兄是否有过交流
张文木：《印度国家发展及其潜力评估》
张文木：《世界地缘政治中的中国国家安全利益分析》
