- 近期网站停站换新具体说明
- 按以上说明时间，延期一周至网站时间26-27左右。具体实施前两天会在此提前通知具体实施时间
主题：【原创】美国股市在搞什么鬼？国外投资人的陷阱？ -- 倥偬飞人
家园 【原创】美国股市在搞什么鬼？国外投资人的陷阱？ 突然想到，美国股市这么瞎跑，后面应该是有文章的。美国股市最大的庄家当然是美国人，在经济前景黯淡的时候，最好的办法就是把美元资产以最贵的价格卖给国外投资人，收走了一大堆现金，然后股市崩盘，老外们捏着一大堆paper，要不斩仓走人，要不苦哈哈硬撑，要是您不幸抱上个破产的公司，嘿嘿，那就全交待了。
类比房地产市场，其实美国房市的泡泡，吸引了不少国外投资人，要不直接去炒房，要不买入所谓MBS，mortgage backed securities，收入可能比国债高点。如今房地产大跌，还要接着跌下去，老外们的钱，就搁在卖不出价钱的房子里了，即时割肉卖了，现金可就大缩水了。外国人手里捏着的美元，就这样转移到了美国人手里。
怎么想这些事情怎么像上房抽梯的计策：你们手里美元多，不管是辛辛苦苦作衬衣还是轻轻松松卖石油挣的，俺这边就忽悠房地产和股票，价钱炒上去了，梯子做好了，你们爬上去看蓝天，俺这边就把梯子抽了，想下来费劲了不是？这么玩玩戏法，美国人又有钱了，你们的钱，没了！
这么说好像有点阴谋论，可是看到老笨联储主席、老格卸任主席都不顾事实不顾体面帮着忽悠，一会儿说房地产好，一会儿说经济好，再加上有invested interests的众媒体和分析师们一同鼓噪，忒可疑了点。看来这忽悠的后面还是美国的国家利益。美国股市，本来就是最大的财富抽水机，能把老外辛辛苦苦挣来的美元，都抽回到美国人口袋里去了。
家园 美国经济衰退：1月数据为证 Durable goods orders: down 7.8%
Transportation orders fell by 18 percent, a figure affected heavily by a 60.3 percent drop in civilian aircraft orders. Boeing Co. reported orders of just 13 planes in January, after a strong tally 212 in December.
Defense aircraft and parts orders also fell 54.6 percent.
Automotive orders also fell 5.1 percent following a 5.3 percent rise in December.
Existing home sales went up 3%, but price down 3%!
家园 衰退确认了?中国要受多大影响? 美国现在衰退,两年可不可以走出来.老美这段时间看来要搞事了,估计要收拾新兴市场国家,东南亚,印度之流,日本也别好过.
中国会受多大影响,学老朱98年,好好搞我们的基础设施建设,新农村建设,应该能撑过去吧!
家园 罗奇：世界没有警觉 各国当权者都对金融问题采取了鸵鸟态度，而危机不会消失，将来我们回首今天，可能不无悔恨。
家园 格老发话：美国经济可能进入衰退 2001年2月，格林斯潘向国会作证时声称，美国经济没有衰退的问题，结果3月份就已经衰退了。
2006年12月，格老说美国房地产已经触底，结果1月份房屋建造商纷纷说07年还很黯淡。至今为止，房贷公司和房屋建造公司的股票纷纷下跌。
如今格老终于开始承认经济衰退的可能性了，但是他说可能是07Q4. 实际上呢？现在可能就已经进入衰退了，或者是第二季度。
Roubini认为，股市调整幅度S&P500可能下跌28%。
升的越高，跌的越惨。
家园 only problem is that the element of surprise is missing. many investors are already in bear market or money market funds.
usually a crash should not happen without the majority being trapped at the top.
but maybe this time it's different. the US' trouble has been known for too long, by too many people. it's become increasingly tough to pull off another magic under so many watchful eyes and suspecting minds.
家园 Too many investors underestimate the risk. DOW just a little off its record highs. VIX, the measurement of complacency, at historical lows - that's not what people should be doing if they have become prudent. The markets are still at the top, but will get off there sooner than people expected. At the beginning of this year, 12 biggest investment firms unanimously predicted another record high year for 2007. Are the crowds already prepared for the crash? Not likely.
家园 an article i read http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0216.html
家园 Technical analysis is a windsock not a crystal ball - this saying in this very article makes a lot of sense.
Money flow could work against you at any time. In January, money out-flow has exceeded in-flow by $11 billion. The US needs $70 billion net in-flow to finance their debt. Without fundamentals to support the stock markets, it will be just like a car trying to go forward without its wheels - crash will not be a surprise, but until then, who knows?
家园 There is nothing wrong with the There is nothing wrong with the market. Never argue with the market.
家园 This sounds very familiar Yeah, they said that before the biggest crash ever in 2000. How old were you then?
家园 外国投资人拥有八万亿美元的美国金融资产 现在，外国投资人拥有13%的美国股票，24%的公司债券，43%的国债treasury bonds，14%的政府机构债券。至于美国是世界最大的债务国，那已经不是新闻了。
出处为The Daily Reckoning http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
> What are America's trading partners doing with these dollars? Their
> central banks have been accumulating huge piles of dollars as "reserves"
> to support their own currencies, while foreign businesses have been buying
> U.S. real estate, stocks, and bonds. Foreign investors now own about $8
> trillion of U.S. financial assets, including 13 percent of all U.S.
> stocks, 24 percent of corporate bonds, 43 percent of Treasury bonds, and
> 14 percent of government agency debt. By the end of 2003, about a third of
> Fannie Mae's mortgage-backed bonds were being sold outside the United
> States. In the 1980s, the U.S. was the world's biggest creditor nation,
> meaning that we had far more invested in other countries than those
> countries had invested here. But by 2003, foreign investors owned $9.4
> trillion of U.S. assets, while U.S. claims on the rest of the world were
> only $7.2 trillion. The United States is now the world's biggest debtor
> nation.
家园 美股 美股這次升市，是去年七月Pauson上任後開始的。在這之前，其實是有轉弱的趨勢。
以Paulson在高盛的影響力及操控美國PPT。美股變成了牛氣沖天。這個泡沫能否補回樓市下降的損失？能否延續至他離任？當然預測股市是極難，正如凱恩斯所講，The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent。但以現時美國政經的形勢，我就沒有這個膽量落場了。
不知是否外國人是買家（最近外資流入減少，這是不好的預兆）。但從公佈顯示大公司的內部入士是大賣家！！
另一方面，看到美國大公市管理人士的薪酬，簡直已經是越來越過份！！將錢放入這些公司是極不合理！！
家园 这是一个高难度的题目. 家园 请教飞人兄一个高难度的问题 看美国最近二十年的S&P500股指，如果压缩到最小不计中途的调整就是一个45度角斜向上的曲线。我很纳闷的是,美国这二十年来的经济增长率也不过就是5%左右吧,其开始时候的市场PE最低也不过就是10左右吧,而它的股指能够超过10%以上的速度增长二十年,现在的PE也不过20倍左右,这是咋整的?
是不是它经常调换500成分股票的原因,把好股票不断换进而把坏股不断请出去?
另外,NASDAQ,加国股市目前平均PE,PB是多少?
谢谢!