主题：【原创】美国50年来最大的房市泡沫对经济的影响 -- 倥偬飞人
New Century Files for Bankruptcy
By LINGLING WEI and MARIE BEAUDETTE
April 2, 2007 11:26 a.m.
New Century Financial Corp., once a highflying subprime mortgage lender, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Monday in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del., becoming the biggest casualty of the turmoil in the U.S. market for high-risk home loans.
In its Chapter 11 filing, the Irvine, Calif., lender listed more than $100 million each in assets and debts.
Among its biggest creditors are Wall Street firms that have demanded that the lender buy back dud loans earlier sold to them, including Countrywide Financial Corp., Bank of America, Lehman Brothers Bank, Residential Funding Corp. and Goldman Sachs Mortgage Co.
The rapid descent of New Century encapsulates the broader struggles of a subprime-mortgage industry plagued by rising defaults and liquidity shortages. More than 30 independent, non-bank lenders catering to people with poor credit have gone belly up or been purchased since December. The contraction is making it harder for consumers to get credit and has stirred up concerns about the health of the U.S. economy.
New Century funded $51.6 billion of subprime loans last year and was second only to HSBC Holdings PLC in terms of loan volumes, according to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance. It was founded in 1995 by three mortgage-industry veterans: Brad Morrice, the current chief executive; Bob Cole; and Ed Gotschall. The company went public two years later and was named to Fortune magazine's list of the 100 fastest-growing companies in 2003 and 2004.
New Century announced in early February that it would need to restate earnings for the first three quarters of 2006, partly to reflect the higher-than-expected costs of defaults. New Century also said it expects to report a loss for all of 2006, but couldn't yet quantify that loss. In addition, the company has announced it is the subject of a federal criminal investigation into its accounting and trading in its stock.
In early March, New Century stopped making loans after its lenders cut off funding. Investment banks and commercial banks such as Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley provide independent mortgage originators such as New Century short-term financing, buy loans from them, and pool those loans into tradable securities to sell to investors.
More than a dozen states, including its home state of California, have told New Century to halt its lending business.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1175..._whats_news_us
那对加拿大可是大大有利哦，每年夏天单单接待美国上加拿大避暑的难民就够了。
中国日本都因为跟美国有巨大的顺差，而且在一定程度上被迫要继续买美国债券（不买就吃贸易制裁大棒），所以大家都要用顺差来支持美国债券。但是前两年息率实在太低，美国还一度取消了30年国债发行，短期国债变得更加低，自然把市场需求赶到MBS/ABS那里去，因为住宅房贷证券一向被认为是最稳妥的信贷之一，谁不到了山穷水尽的地步都不会放弃自住的物业。
但是美国从0203年开始，房贷市场发生了深刻的变化，本来投资物业很少，房贷把关严格，由于MBS的兴起把关犹如儿戏，投资房普遍，地产泡沫到处都是。更加重要的是，Moody或者其他评级机构对于现存MBS评级都是90年代泡沫后复原期的数据模型来评级，根本没有房产泡沫爆破时期还贷数据参照，所以被很多分析员认为没有经过stress test。现在的prime到底有多prime，相信过多两年就知道了，肯定的是，一定不会有现存模型认为那么prime。
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae修订的房贷指引一般是起码20%首期，房贷总数量不超过41万6，借贷人的信誉分数良好。但是现在的prime定义每家都有所不同，并不与两大的一致，而且一定比两大的低，其中的风险可想而知。
现在这些MBS/CDO也不好卖，成交量大幅下跌。
估计中国持有的1000多亿美元MBS要吃大亏，还是给美国人忽悠进去了不少钱啊，还不如都买了美国的大豆高粱呢。
近日，国际知名的信用评级机构标准普尔新近发布的一份研究报告指出，允许银行进行大规模的资产证券化业务可以显著减少中国银行体系过剩的流动性，并且有助于政府宏观调控政策的实施。
事实上，持续不断的流动性过剩是目前中国经济面临的一个难题，央行也通过加息、提高银行存款准备金率，以及计划中的成立外汇投资公司来收紧流动性，但却一直收效甚微。
这篇题目为《通过资产证券化吸收过剩的流动性》的研究报告指出，目前中国主要通过升息手段来应对由流动性过剩导致的资产泡沫，但在中国大部分的流动性是由贸易顺差和 “热钱”流入引起的，升息不但不会减少这部分的流动性，反而会吸引更多的热钱。
标准普尔董事总经理、中国区总裁扈企平博士指出，发展资产证券化市场为解决流动性过剩的问题提供了另外一条思路，“在当前存在流动性过剩情况下，投资者购买资产证券化产品的资金大部分来源于银行存款，因此发行证券化产品会减少银行体系的资产负债规模，也就是吸收流动性”他说。
扈企平认为，发行资产证券化股票和债券有利于控制货币创造和银行信贷规模的扩张，在资产证券化的过程中，银行出售自身的信贷资产，投资者则用银行存款来购买证券化产品，这可以看成是货币创造的逆过程。所以，资产证券化对货币供给起到一个收缩的作用。
该报告认为，中国目前的流动性过剩问题并不仅仅是货币供给的问题，它还反映了经济结构内部的深层次矛盾，即中国的金融市场，特别是债券市场相对于整个经济发展程度而言还不够发达。为了解决流动性过剩这个问题，央行在继续采用各种调控措施“堵”的同时，还需建立发达的债券市场，提供更多“疏”的渠道。
“目前中国经济发展形势处于高增长、低通胀的良好态势，利率水平也处在历史较低水平，但是近期金融资产价格暴涨反映了居民财富水平不断增长和金融资产供给不足的内在矛盾”扈企平说，“如果居民的金融投资过多地集中于股票投资，其中的风险不言而喻。不仅投资者会面临集中性风险，而且由于缺乏其它投资渠道，尤其是缺乏长期稳定的收益率基准指标，也使得股市容易被操纵并出现大起大落。因此发展债券市场对扩大直接融资规模，增强资本市场稳定性有重要作用。”