主题：搞一个飞人推荐的股票扑周报，就当纸上炒股的周记…… -- 古狗肥腩死

6月剩下几天猛涨。空军们准备扑QQQQ和SPX阿，呵呵

股价历史数据来自yahoo,put option数据来自marketwatch.

一些简单分析：

1.目前股价为20.34，为04/18股价24.94的81.56%；put option价格为2.35，是当初买入价1.40的167.86%；leverage大致为2:1。

2.Implied Volatility是当初买入时的97%(0.4506/0.4648),可以看到变化一直不是非常大，所以目前put option价格没有overpriced(和买入相比）。

3.Delta现在很高，股价动$1,option价格能动$0.39。当然这也是因为put option已经near the money了。

结论？继续沿着飞人老大指引的方向前进。。。

first report和final revision可以差老远, 这种手法倒是挺高明.

没见有什么坏消息，怎么突然就掉下去了呢，股市真是让人琢磨不透啊，不过飞人兄肯定赚大了，呵呵，恭喜一下

今天是2007-06-22。以下都是今天的收市价格，和与上次更新相比的涨跌。

2008年1月18日的扑的价格（BID）：

俺们捡来的$6400先价值为：

(3.10 + 0.80 + 2.30 + 0.70) X100X10 = $6900

嗯……大家都在跌，只有GM还在逆势猛涨……HOV眼看是翻不了身了，因为现在股价已经低于执行价，所以每跌一元，这个账面就增值一千元；CRM一下子掉了百分之十几；NT只掉了一点点。

三个月以来的走势图：

今天是2007-06-29。以下都是今天的收市价格，和与上次更新相比的涨跌。

2008年1月18日的扑的价格（BID）：

俺们捡来的$6400先价值为：

(4.10 + 0.60 + 1.75 + 0.70) X100X10 = $7150

嗯……HOV一跌再跌，但是GM和CRM又涨回来……NT跳上跳下，最后几乎没变化。

三个月以来的走势图：

Let's look at the great qualities that separate Hovnanian from the rest of the housing market:

Debt/Equity Ratio last quarter:

HOV: 1.4

Industry: .79

This means Hovnanian has 1.4 times more long-term debt than equity, twice as much as the industry average.

Cash Flow/Long Term Debt ratio:

.078

This means Hovnanian generates free cash flow that is equivalent to 7.8% of its long-term debt.

Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest Expense):

-34.77/6.67 = -5.2

This means that Hovnanian is losing 5.2 times more money than it owes on interest payments.

Interest Expense over the last 5 quarters:

Q2 2006: 0.70

Q3 2006: 0.65

Q4 2006: 1.45

Q1 2007: 1.22

Q2 2007: 6.67

This means that somehow, Hovnanian managed to increase its interest payments to 6.67 million, up from just 1.22 million the previous quarter, an increase that is 5.46 times higher.

Let's have a look at cash, where all figures are obtained from thestreet.com. Last quarter, Hovnanian had $19.5 million in cash. It also had interest payments of 6.67 million, included in total loss of $30.73 million. This means that the company will have to severely cut equity (essentially by liquidating houses by selling them at lower prices), to generate enough cash flow to stay afloat. When this happens, Hovnanian will have reduced assets that were claimed as collateral for its debt.

Let's isolate interest payments to cash, and pretend losses don't exist for a moment. If Hovnanian has to pay $6.67 million or more for the next three quarters, that is a total of at least $20.01 million. But, last quarter it only had $19.5 million in cash. This means Hovnanian barely has enough cash to stay afloat for the next three quarters, without even considering the continuation of losses.

So, how will it stay afloat? There are several options. First, it can raise capital by selling the stock in its treasury account, which has currently 12.39 million shares. There are currently 47.5 million traded shares outstanding. So, if they had to sell all 12.39 million, they would dilute the shares by 26% of their current value.

看样子，HOV 还要降。

今天是2007-07-06。以下都是今天的收市价格，和与上次更新相比的涨跌。

2008年1月18日的扑的价格（BID）：

俺们捡来的$6400先价值为：

(4.30 + 0.70 + 1.75 + 0.75) X100X10 = $7500

嗯……HOV先跌后周五猛涨，其他变化不大。

三个月以来的走势图：

就把CRM，GM，NT卖了，都放HOV上。

HOV的战术应该是蛙跳之后，套利出现金来，再买进其它还没有大跌股票的put。

HOMEBUILDER卖超反弹意料之中，就是时间晚了点。最佳卖空时间无疑是前几个星期，现在才入场，错过了不少机会。