主题：【原创】熊死蹬有机可乘？ -- 倥偬飞人
那个老兄看上去是做internal audit的，finance上的决策可能是上次走人的那个CFO干的。
啥？你说他们临走还帮我擦屁股了？这事纯属巧合，纯属巧合哈……
推说04年时候伪造报表的事情都是前CEO干的。
The Ticking Time Bomb In Your Portfolio
by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U
Investment Director, The Oxford Club
Dear Investment U Reader,
You may have a ticking time bomb in your brokerage account. If so, you need to get rid of it immediately. Today.
Let me explain why…
The financial press loves it when the mighty stumble. And so it has had a field day lately covering Bear Stearns’ $3.2 billion bail out of one of its ailing hedge funds. The fund made a specialty of investing – with leverage, of course – in subprime mortgages.
Although Bear Stearns is a leader in both underwriting and trading esoteric securities backed by mortgages, the firm apparently failed to talk to my tennis partner Jim, who owns a mortgage company in Orlando.
“You wouldn’t believe the crap we’re writing now,” he told me last year. “I’ve never seen anything like it in my life. If you want a mortgage today, you don’t need income, you don’t need assets, you don’t need a credit record, you don’t even need a down payment. All you need is two things: a house… and a pulse.”
Risky Loans Make Toxic Investments
Over the past few years, subprime mortgages became not just loans to people with less than stellar credit. They became loans to people who were such poor credit risks they had no business buying a house in the first place.
“Thank God we’re selling these mortgages off as soon as we write them,” Jim added.
So who buys these crummy mortgages? The folks on Wall Street. But not for themselves, of course. They find unique and innovative ways to package and resell them to Mom and Pop.
More specifically, Wall Street takes pools of mortgages and turns them into securities known as collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. (Years ago, we used to call them CMOs – collateralized mortgage obligations.) There were $316.4 billion in mortgage-related CDOs issued last year, according to the Financial Markets Association. More than $1 trillion have been issued, in total.
Some of these securities are safe and carry low yields. But many of them are toxic. They carry attractive yields. But they are not attractive investments. Most of them are risky, poorly understood, thinly traded and prone to going bump in the night.
If your broker has sold you a high-yielding CDO, sell it at market today. There’s a good chance the price of these securities is going to get a whole lot worse before it gets better.
I’m not just whistling Dixie here…
More Bailouts to Follow
Bear Stearns did not bail out its hedge fund investors out of the goodness of its heart. The firm has made its fortune putting other people’s capital at risk, not its own.
However, redemptions at the fund were coming in faster than Bear could safely unwind its positions. If lenders had seized the fund’s assets and dumped billions of dollars in mortgage-related securities into the market at fire-sale prices, it would have caused a meltdown in the subprime securities market… and would have exposed Bear to substantial losses.
Sticking it to investors and lenders would have ruined the firm’s reputation. And a Wall Street firm with a bad reputation doesn’t last long. Just ask the folks who used to work for Drexel Burnham.
Faced with no real alternative, Bear decided last week to pony up a million dollars… 3,200 times. This was the biggest hedge fund bail out since 1998 when more than a dozen lenders (orchestrated by Fed Chairman Greenspan) provided $3.6 billion to save Long-Term Capital Management.
With more than $1.2 trillion washing around in hedge funds today – most of it leveraged – my guess is we’re going to see more of these bailouts in the near future. Or, worse, liquidations that cause chaos in this market because the funds aren’t there for a bailout.
Take my advice. If you have a high-yielding mortgage security in your brokerage account, don’t ask questions and don’t wait for a rebound. Get rid of that ticking time bomb today.
Good investing,
Alex
对投行的BALANCE SHEET不熟悉，好像CASH很多啊。不过1-3个BILLION对BEAR也不是小数。。。
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=BSC
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/070629/bearstearns_fund.html?.v=5
另外，BEAR是不是不一定要BAIL OUT？亏得是投资者的钱。它这么做是为了信誉么？
有没有人知道这两个FUND的主要投资者是谁？
飞人兄的HOV推荐的很牛啊，兄弟顺手小赚了点。谢谢。。最弱的SECTOR里的最弱的股票。。呵呵。飞人兄是否觉得HOV会破产？谢谢。。
bear是street上靠settlement起家的，应该是最保守的那种，所以历史上躲开了无数次大灾大难。
这次bail out完全是不得已，因为它的另一个fund是公司的旗舰，之前连续盈利了40个季度，投资人早赚翻了，这次出事的fund原来打算做成第一个的mirror, 去年为是不是成立新基金，公司内部还进行了辩论，如果不bail out，第一个基金的投资人要cash out就麻烦了。
谁是投资人真的不重要了，因为leverage到10倍以上，真正的风险都压在了占9/10贷款的banker们身上了。
不到万一，熊死蹬是绝对不会自己拿钱出来搭救hedge fund。真正的原因是如果不出手，hf会死的很难看，连带熊死蹬也会暴露严重损失。拿出现金注入，可以拖一拖，寄希望于这些CDO烂帐不必mark to market。就是如此，BSC还是力不能逮，救得了第一个，救不了第二个，所以才说有机可乘。
HOV是有破产的可能，看前贴，债务是现金的2400多倍。
我玩的类似put不止HOV一个，BZH, AHM都有大跌。
very enlightening to me.
Investment Landfill: How Professionals Dump Their Waste On You
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/tustain/2007/0703.html
the author does not discuss the importance of the first loss position in the cash or synthetic CDO. Moreover, the usage of the one factor Gaussian copula model has already been criticized in the 2005 market turmoil, see GM and Ford.
The biggest problem in the CDO market or CDO pricing is the correlation of the default. They have fat-tails and cannot be captured by the first two moments.
your comments.
http://infoproc.blogspot.com/2005/09/gaussian-copula-and-credit-derivatives.html
it seems there are CDOs for not only home mortgage loans, but for corporate bonds as well.
是以价值评估的观点分析，不是技术面。
虽然文章的结论是还不够便宜，但毕竟是开始考虑了。
评级机构终于开始降低MBS/CDO之类的信用等级，否则他们自己的信用就荡然无存了。其实Ohio州的检察长已经在考虑起诉这些评级机构。
Moody's downgrades 399 mortgage-backed securities
熊死蹬一个趔趄，跌掉4%，看起来还是处于下降通道中：
Buyers avoid Bear Stearns' cut-priced sale
By James Mackintosh and Gillian Tett in London
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Vulture funds and others have been quick to bid for holdings in the two funds, but the best bid for bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leveraged Fund, the more geared of the two, is just 5 cents on the dollar.
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S&P finally says subprime is mostly junk
Commentary: New methodology is death knell for the troubled industry
这不是比叫他们死还难受吗？95%的损失