主题：文革是如何演绎成一场国难的 -- 潘涌

I would say, we have no choice. The choice has made by those in high positions already. Normal people didn't get involved with that power-transfer thing at all in 1976, except for enjoying the happiness brought by it: Dancing traditional yangge, and hitting drums, and gossiping those faked stories about Gang of four.

However, any change accompanied by violence would make people suffer a lot. Possibly, it could entirely ruin the chances of rising of the whole nation. I appreciated those winners, who controlled the situation very well and cleaned those four guys and their effects from the community in time. Otherwise, the whole country could possibly go back to 1911. In the process of the power-seize struggle, probably there are many many secrets that we normal people never know.

腥风血雨is not neccessarily to come. It highly depends on domestic situations and international situations. However, there is no spectulation nor assumption to history. It is true they all could change, no matter cards in the hands of gamblers, or the way of playing cards. So power-transfer could be peacefully done.

For all kinds power transfers, it could be recognized as good as long the normal people won't suffer the pain as well as the loss.

关键看交权之前是否已经走在正确的道路上。如果上一代选择的道路是正确的，那么平稳交权有助于政策的连续性，例子是台湾的蒋氏父子和新加坡的李氏父子；如果上一代就走错了路，那么平稳交权也就断送了变革的希望，例子就是朝鲜的金家。对中国而言，不说文革时期，即使是49－66年，也不能说是走对路吧？

Flower.

Pan Ge, in fact, your writing is really thoughtful, and does remind me a lot of things.

It happened I fall into the age caterogries, of which people are aware of those old stories about Cultural revolution, Lin Biao to some details- at least, most of the afermath of LinBiao are quite clear to me.

Be honestly speaking, I couldn't totally understand tricks in those games until I myself had quite similiar experiences in States- I would like to call it a game for surviving, or gamble for survive, from which I met quite some people who failed in the game and have to quit their intended career. The game participants are all competitors without any friendship, without any mercy - showing mercy could be easily taken advantage of the competitors.

The political system anywhere, is more less like a mafia. As soon as one chooses politician as a career, he enters the mafia gang. So he has to obey the rules. The whole process of that revolution, could be precisely explained by the mafia fight among several big politician families: M, Liu, Zhou, Lin, and some families else such as D, Gang of four, and Hua.

Ever since M established his leadership in the mafia community, he got used to enjoying serving as the godfather of the mafia community: he held a string, and let other leaders, such as Liu, Zhou, Lin, and D dance one by one on the string to the rhythm he liked.

However, along with accumulting of successful experiences on mafia bussiness and increased public credits, Liu was no more satisfied with his dancing role: dancing to the rhythm made by other. So he started to struggle for the right of holding string. He extend the power of his family and controlled the most of fields of mafia community.

M was godfather, not a fool. He realized Liu's plan, and couldn't help with Liu's move. What made him more angry is he found he was not even able to sell his religous pamphlets around his house. So he called for Z and Lin and discussed with them about the servere situation. It happened both Z and Lin didn't get along with Liu either. They also realized the ergent situation. However, Z and Lin all had deep root with gunmen. Thus, with strong support provided by gunmen, M succesfully fought back against Liu, and started a revolution toward Liu. He totally smashed the mafia system built by Liu by calling up common people all over the community. During the old system smashing process, the majoriy of people were in fact innocent about the whole picture and true stories, however, they followed Mao's call, and sincerely participated the movement of pushing down Liu and his deputies at each levels in the community. The fights are extremely violent as well as booldy. Only a few guys out of them, like QDF understood the situations quite well at very early time, because they had experienced of such gang fighting: you were hero because you were useful. You were kicked off reckless once you became an obstacle in the way or turned to be useless. The entire picture of the fights in community was very funny: People debated against each other, and fought against each other brutally. What was rediculous was all happened under the name of in favor of M.

Liu was pushed down finaly, however what came along with the success over Liu is not only happiness: normal people's life were totally messed up, and the mafia community was paralyzed. What's even worse was Lin and his highly educated son started to hate the idea of dancing on the string held by M, because they thought M's rhythm was not only of out of fashion, but also too crazy. More people would fall down from the string and got killed if the game countiues. So they plotted to make an attempt to remove M from the string holder position.

However, Godfather was a yellow hand of mafia fighting. M succesfully scared Lin's family to flee by air, and invented a name for Lin's family: the rebel of whole community, thus it eliminated to the best of the aftermath effect of vanish of Lin's family in the community.

M gathered a lot of new guys from the movement under his banner. However, they were too simple, and sometimes too naive. Some of them were even over-aggressive. Besides, M didn't believe in Z, but he couldn't kick him down. As a way to ballance those the new families and the old families of the gang, M re-used D, who used to be the secretary general of Liu family, and was kicked down previously along with Liu. D was a gifted mafia man and had ideas about running mafia bussniess. Besides, he had rich leading experience of gunmen and was able to let gunmen do their jobs.

Actually D did good jobs after picking up his new position. he let people work and gave them sugars. Thus he gained quite some credits after a short time. However, he pushed it too far, and touched the bottom line of M... The story is very long and one cannot cover to tails.

In short, all the people who preferred strong leadership, like M tended to like holding a string and letting other poeple dancing on it to his rhythm. Every person in his game functions as his cards. He used Lin and Zhou to crack down Liu, and kicked him out of the game forever. He simply kicked down D and kept him away frmo the game, saving him as backup cards in case of game going out of control by new guys. He used all those new faces cards to fill in Liu's space to ballance Lin. He burned Zhou somehow when he didn't collabrate with him. He is really a master of playing cards. Finally, he used Zhou to crackdown Lin and its men. When new faces won't follow him well and fought with Zhou too firce, he pull out his backup card D. Once he was certain that D had intention of going back to Liu's old track, he immediately kicked him down again and pull out another reserved card Hua to take Zhou's position after Zhou's death, out of expectation of all families. In this game, nobody has absolutely stable position. and he has to follow M closely and sincerely.

就林立果本人而言，断不会独立思考到那种深度。

一种是台湾，一种是朝鲜，但是成为朝鲜那种情况可能性很小，再有一种情况就是比台湾更好的一种模式，也许就是现在的经济形势加上台湾的政治形势，这方面大家思考，我还在朝前赶路，只思考一个框架。

I might get a chance to visit your bar. So we can talk about your ambitious plan of writing works about Chinese history over that time, or extract some userful experiences for new generations. We are gonna vanish eventually, and it would be good if young people could learn experience to the best facts. By the way, I work on applied maths and statistics, and might be able to help you with your plan of quantifying gamble rules for Red Palace during 1949-1979. Also, I am a professional programmer.

不同，导致当时对文革理解完全不同。如果毛主席是皇帝，林彪就是储君，林立果就是世子。先生不过出身将门而已，怎能和出身君门的相比？林立果站在权谋的角度看问题，把毛泽东当成人而不是神来考虑，没有任何崇高，任何伟大，只有残忍的权术，另一个朱重八而已。一针见血。

的日子该结束了。封建专制不属于这个时代，无论是台湾还是北韩。

不知道说啥，等着看各位的议论

恶邻，多来几次共产风、公社化运动。可以有效减少中国人口，也可以实现和谐。要是心肠够黑，干脆直接一点，学习红色高棉。

人们之所以有时还会觉得林也够冤的，就是因为看到了这份纪要，真可谓：醍醐灌顶啊。几乎句句都对。因此可以说，第一个试图在理论上否定文革、否定毛的就是林立国了。难怪林彪说：

从这点儿上，陈伯达、张春桥、姚文元、毛远新的理论和文章都没有571让人们那为么震撼。

嫡孙更折腾不到哪儿去了。

希望你能在伤痕文学和地摊文学中开辟一条新路~