主题：观察：Google事件背后是怎样的博弈？ -- SkyWalkerJ
是不是他认为非法营运车辆不是犯罪，所以不能用钓鱼方式来取缔？
还是国家有过规定，某些执法手段只能在某些场合运用？
是钩子硬要乘他的车，并把钱强塞给他的？
栽赃只能这么理解。
2009 is deja vu of 1929 and America will resort to the same tactic again.
1929's worldwide problem is overcapacity (relatively insufficient effective demand). America destroyed some of its own overcapacity through 1929-1931 recession and outside world destroyed almost all of their capacity through WWII.
American came into today's social structure(a big middle class as the pilar of a civilized society) due to various macro factors: global demand for American manufactured goods, SHUTOFF OF GLOBAL immigration and international trade, global trade war. At the same time, it had the right person (a left-lean aristcratic FDR with superior political skills) as the president.
First, there was no international product competition in US market to squeeze the margin/price.
Second, there was EXTREME shortgage of labor after 1939.Union was not allowed until 1932.
Then easily US labor rate shoot above the roof and American living standards climbed quickly--capitalists were NOT unhappy at all because there was global war demand for their manufactured goods WITH NO PRICING PRESSURE and they had no choice but to employ ONLY American labor (that's why African Americans moved from impoverished south into industrialized North and many women FOR THE FIRST TIME IN US HISTORY, massively participated in the economy).
Check this out-- http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayCover.cfm?url=/images/20100102/20100102issuecovUS400.jpg
that's how US came into a society dominated by the mid-class. America reached an ideal social structure MOSTLY THROUGH SELF-REFORM AND PURE LUCK.
That favorable social structure was maintained until late 1990s since the cold war kept away the flood of super-cheap labor supply from former communist block (China included).
The free international trade, a GDP-obsessed Chinese export economy led to explosive growth in global production capacity (go to Walmart/dollar store to see the power of this revolution), but there is no catch-up in terms of effective demand from China (even the limited demand was wasted on real estate SPECULATION).
China HAS BEEN SQUEEZING MARKET SHARE FROM BOTH DEVELOPED WORLD AS WELL AS SOME OF ITS DEVELOPING NATION COMPETITORS BETWEEN 2001-2007.
Below is the faked conversation between G-2:
America: we thoughT free-trade/free-capital movement will allow America to easily rip off others. But now you, China, looks like a cancer in this America-led Global Operating System(Trade&Financial System): you siphon off jobs, but did not create effective demands for all of us to create new domestic jobs. You must increase your exchange rate to reduce your product competitiveness and stimulate your domestic demand for ALL OF US so that we can export to your market(US and Europe).
Anyway, currency appreciation happened for Germany/France/UK/Japan for 1970s and Taiwan/Korea in 1980s. Why cann't you do it so that the USD-TreasuryNote-Brettonwoods system can get a SECOND SYSTEM Update (just like the Windows XP SP2 update and the Matrix update in Matrix III) to avoid a system disruption (of American dominance)?
China: I have another wave of young men forthcoming into the labor force. I do not care about ANY WELFARE of my compatriots or your voters. I need more new jobs to diffuse social intension and potential turmoil. ANYWAY, KEEPING POWER/CONTROL is what I care. As to the dirty cheap labor rate/lack of labor protection/environmental disaster and social welfare in CN, forget about THEM. Improvment Will NOT happen for the next 10 years. BTW, your capitalists love that in China with more money flooding in...why shall I change?
If I allow RMB to appreciate, I am sure to be Japan V2 given my deeply flawed financial system... I am NO idiot! ^-^
How about I keep on lending you billions (buying treasury bills) and you shut up your f* mouth.
America: okay okay, can we have a G2 cooperation to defeat the European global-warming attack?～
China: sure, we have deal. Business is business.
One month later, Christmas is over. White House got another bleak update.
America: F*ck, unemployment is so high and jobs are so scarce. Chinese refuse to increase exchange rate(create more import demand and reduce supply) or make domestic changes to unleash consumer demands. The only thing they want is to dump unemployment to the overseas market.
Our companies are squeezed on profit margin thus have more domestic layoff pressure, while at the same time undercut in labor costs by ShanZhai production capacity.
Hilary: we should cut off the trade/capital flow/job flow to China by disrupting the current free trade system. NOW it is the only solution given that technology revolution WILL NOT HAPPEN TO CREATE EFFECTIVE DEMAND IN YOUR 4-YEAR TERM. Chinese demand will be a joke for the next 10 years. BTw, mid-year congress election is coming, democrats will lose house if job situation keeps on deteriorating...
Keep in mind: the rule about the war on job/trade is that... it is NOT about the war on job. It is about political integrity, principle and the war on "freedom of CHINESE PEOPLE's speech", even though it is the voters in AMERICA that truly determine my political prospect.
Obama: ya, 無毒不丈夫、老子天生就是玩陰的料, it is Democrats' tradition, isn't it, darling... Anyway, Cooperhagen is dead...hahaha.
Then Taiwan suddenly got the post-Christmas "gift" and Google finally could do what it wants in the past.
China: %$#&^% f**&&^%
Start of the new cold war. Switch from peaceful WinXP operating system to the war-obsessed unstable/unpredictable Linux system...
In sum: -ism is fake, vote is the key. Principle is a joke, but economy is the reason... Friend is not permanent and adversary is not perpetual, only vote and interests are permanent and perpetual.
這回是老二歐洲得利了
100% agree with your post. Next 10 years will be interesting.
近乎第一手的来源
感谢下面的几位河友，把俺指认成五美分了，这样也好，干脆自己注上，说话方便点。搞不好朝一日真的有人给俺发钱。
和多数国内网友一样，俺在看到google在12日发的声明之后，也把眼球集中在声明的后半段，即关于网络内容审查的那部分。因此总体的判断，如俺在主贴中所写，这是个有组织有预谋的行动，其现实利益上的目的，是引起外资对于在华经营监管环境的担忧，促进工作岗位回流美国。此处的逻辑推导很明了：内容审查在中国不是今天才有，google在国内设立.cn服务器就是以接受这些审查为条件的，那么为何以前能忍，今天突然就不能忍了呢？
然而随着事情的发展，我们看到这个“能忍”到“不能忍”的突变，似乎确实有点事出有因。
本次事件发展过程中，有两点看上去比较困惑：
第一，google的声明全文可以分成前后两段，后半段是讲内容审查的事，前半段是讲他受到了攻击：
而这个“sophisticated attack”的目标是：
俺学的专业是工业控制，信息安全领域是十足外行，不过根据俺这点浅陋的基础知识，这两段引文说的事情似乎对不上。
软件公司的“intellectual property”主要是算法和源代码，算法也是体现在源代码法当中的。而常见的对公网上电子邮件服务器的攻击，似乎不大可能引起关键源代码的泄露，因为对外运营的服务器上根本不存在这部分源代码，所谓“知识产权泄露”除非是公司内部网被入侵了。
第二、Google事后处理手段异乎寻常。如果说是仅仅是为了炒作内容审查的事情，掀圡共的桌子，那涉及它的营运系统更多，似乎没必要一夜之间突然把中国区的研发系统从内部网上摘出去，隔绝访问权限。
目前还没看到Google公开它所遭受的攻击的详情。有一些侧面的报道但信息仍然缺乏。我们可以推测一下，这个所谓“sophisticated attack”实际上是讲了两件事。一个是对Gmail服务器的攻击，形式与互联网上常见的黑客攻击类似，且成功了，导致两个gmail账号被入侵。而另一个则严重的多，是他在中国区office的内部网被攻击，导致部分源代码泄露。
两者有关系吗？是的。一个web服务程序，在正常的情况下不会给你看不该看的东西(例如别人的电子邮件)，也不会允许你修改掉它的主页。黑客对web服务器的攻击实际上是利用服务程序的漏洞，即程序对某些特定输入产生的异常，让它跳出去做不该做的事。因此如果有web服务程序的源代码，就可以研究代码直接找出漏洞，而没有源代码就需要一步步地去试验，两者的难度差别，好比是对着密码本翻译密码，和没有密码本破译密码。
如果这个推测成立，就可以解释为何google事后对中国区office进行如此武断的处置。因为已经被黑客侵入，在网络安全意义上这个区域已经不再可信。
对互联网上公开服务器的攻击，一天发生几十次、几百次也不稀奇，不是什么了不起的事故。但是如果是公司的内部网被黑客侵入并偷看了源代码，这个就非常严重。不仅因为源代码是软件公司主要的知识产权载体，还因为像google这样，靠提供公众服务而不是卖光盘谋生的公司，如果说你的服务端程序的漏洞被人家洞悉，今后在你的服务器上人家想来就来想走就走，那谁还敢再用你的东西干活呢？
需要指出的是，即使是出了这样严重的安全事故，也不能直接构成它声明的后半段掀圡共桌子的理由。这也是俺在河里对这个话题发的第一篇帖子里提的问题(链接)。至今无论google自己还是各海外媒体，都没有给出确凿的证据，说明这个攻击就是圡共搞的。难道说google和俺一样运用“利益分析法”的逻辑，因为被access的两个Gmail账户是ZD分子的，就认定是圡共干的。这样的逻辑在BBS上打嘴仗用用也就罢了，如果作为一个盈利性企业关闭全球人口最多的市场的理由，是不是有点小孩子脾气啊。
假设以上推测成立，则本次事件的后续影响，可能主要集中在跨国信息技术企业在华的研发部门。跨国信息技术企业在中国的分支机构，功能上可以分为两类，一类是利润中心，即和现金流直接相关的市场、销售、客户技术支持等。另一类是成本中心，主要是产品研发生产，利用中国低成本高素质的劳动力赚钱。以Microsoft为例，其中国分公司和中国研发集团，是互不隶属的两个独立分支，其向上的汇报关系，可能一直到鲍默那里才有交点。而研发这一块，就俺知道的情况，其实跨国技术企业对境外的知识产权保护一直是有戒心的，通过内部的访问控制/审批等方式，对外国分支访问其核心技术资源有一定限制。那么这个事件的发生，可能会加重这方面的忧虑。而研发系统若要效率高，就得资源共享，如果说一个team这也不能访问那也不能看，它恐怕也就做不了什么事情了。因此或许明年的人口市场上，会少一些蓝色的身影。但对最近国内利好政策连续出台，正在面对更好市场和政策环境的本土IT企业，这会不会也是个发展壮大的机会呢？
欢迎信息安全方面资深的河友莅临指教，其它河友一起快乐八卦。
这个回答等于没回答
你说的基本不着边际。
难得的好文章，用英语都写得这么透彻，换一般的在美国的中国人根本达不到这个水平。做brookings的评论都可以了。
说白了，google这个事，只是一个大时代的引子。纠缠于事情本身根本就没有必要，今后十年的趋势才是重要的。1929-1939 vs 2009-2019，that is the problem.
斗争总是有的，总是越来越激烈的
但是斗而不破，斗中有合作，最后就斗到一家哥俩好了