主题：【原创】连续4天每天4、5%的涨跌后，是不是有了苗头 -- 铁手
I am talking about technical issues facing the banking system in Europe. If you read my posts carefully on "wrong focus". I have pointed out all the key issues in today's Europe.
America has recapitalized its key banks, therefore, it will only suffer some collateral damage from this forthcoming hit in Europe.
Let's avoid each other.
their strategies, and more fatally, their positions to the broker, whose desk actively trades against the aggregates of these positions.
Some client hold large derivative positions that are based on benchmarks whose performance can be manipulated by the publisher. GS has a few popular benchmarks.
Some derivatives are design with a built-in decay.
Lots of engineering talents on wall street.
First, thanks for the info.
Second, European bank's info must be read with certain re-adjustment: European banks do not fully implemented IFRS(opt out hedging accounting and financial instruments), thus lots of assets have not been fully marked to fair value--I bet their equity positions were overstated.
Also I suspect that they used dubious accounting with respect to their sovereign bond holdings.
Third, CIBC is notoriously bad. It was the bank that was ordered to increase core capital by BoC. So a bad outlier.
Fourth, do not worry about National Bank--it is actually Quebec French National bank. I can not say too much here. But do not worry about its assets. It had cleaned up all European bond holding last year.
Fifth, this list is HIGHLY MISLEADING, because the common perception in our circle is that BMO is the worst-managed bank (maybe at par with C) in Canada. Capital position does not tell you other things about its operating inefficiency, lending practice, and cost management...
In sum, I apologize for being overconfident about Canadian banks since their core capital percentage is only in the middle in that league. But on the other side, I do not trust European bank's accounting numbers.
欧洲最烂大概是没问题的，但是中美很难说谁更好。
美国胜在有经验，有主动权，有砝码。
中国也就忍耐力大概好些。银行坏账啥的，由于不透明，真不敢说好过人家多少。只能说这轮不死已经是胜利了。
请教一下，401k里也出清变现吗？
我的情况是：计划里全是指数基金，每天可以交易一次，按收盘价。但无法买黄金，否则早就买了，也没法Hedge。我平常操作得不多，就是dollar cost averaging，公司发薪水时自动定投。但我会留心波动，如三年前大跌前轻了仓，两个月前也如此。所以今年YTD损失比大盘小。手上还有三四成TIPS和现金，现在感觉TIPS最近涨得快了，所以趁波动卖掉一些TIPS，吃进了一些波动最大的Russell2000，REITS和emerging market。但是是小口咬，跌得多就吃进多些，上涨就按兵不动，按照这个速度，我估计一两年以上才能把现金耗尽。
老兄觉得我的策略有什么问题？有无好建议？谢！
hold in MEDIUM-LONG TERM US treasury notes.
If QE3 comes, those notes still go up.
If market collapses, those notes will go up further.
You might have to switch back to equity when high-inflation comes back, but right now, we should worry about deleveraging due to European banking crash and the aftermath--financial asset deflation.
Lesson No.1 for pension: preservation of capital prevails over the chase of return.
你说的有道理。可是我的401K里，non-equity fund只有stable value 和 TIPS index两种，没有中长期T-Note，但好像5年的TIPS yield已经是负数，所以我最近也将TIPS比例调低。
你的想法与我不谋而合，我是宁可错过，不可做错，不求大涨，但求尽量避开大跌。近期看来只好采取观望策略。
我自认没有本事预测市场，所以不浪费时间去猜测底在哪里，因为真正的底部到了，市场不会在那里停留太久，肯定快速反弹，绝大多数人是抓不住的。
宏观上，我觉得市场里的钱最终无处可去，大部分还是只能回到股市。个人中长期比较看好emerging market和REITS,看来我还是慢慢小口吃进，只是要更加放慢脚步。
as not all can buy the note you recommend?
question in other posts. Please track a few other posts.
Now is too late for gold. You should have bought gold in June.