主题：欧洲讨饭记1 -- parishg
我也看空欧洲很久了，但具体如何演变看不清楚，我的猜测是：希腊可能会被踢出去，但其他几只猪猡还有得折腾。与雷曼情况不大一样的是，大家一起不死不活拖很长时间，也就是一只猪刚消停，另一只猪又出状况。具体到股市，你觉得出现08年级别的大崩盘概率有多大？
学袁世凯，用盐税。
好像欧洲不愿意啊。其实到2016年中国就自动被WTO承认为完全市场经济地位了，还有5年。
政府信用违约风险转移到银行系统，由于欧洲银行持有大量欧洲各国的国债，直接冲击银行的资产负债表，金融系统的日常运转由于恐慌被冻结，央行进入为市场提供短期流动性
但是欧洲央行不能印美元，无法为市场提供足够的美元流动性，是这个意思吗？
USD. Demand hikes.
2. American institutional investors are withdrawing funding from the European market.
ECB can only relieve Euro shortage, not dollar shortage. ECB is lucky that it gets some swap quota from US central bank.
寂寞３０年的买办太多了
大工业时代，盐还是必需品，但重要性大幅下降了，我们上半年的“盐荒子孙”没有太大影响啊，无他，大工业时代，盐太便宜了
gets the next tranche. Then we will be in March 2008--another rescue and kick-of-the-can on the road.
There will be temporary stability. Finally Lehman 2.0 will come.
Then sooner or later Greece default issue comes back again.
First, Greece has unbalanced budget for years... I do not understand how can those pighead congressmen can even passed all those budgets in the past.
Second, the whole country is now dead: fiscal specialiasts employed by the finance dept. have already concluded that "tax revenue flow has collapsed". Tourism collapsed, people are doing nothing constructively except for continuous street protest.
Look at Ireland: the same austerity plan, Irishmen bited all bullets. Greeks refused to do anything.
A shrinking GDP of 7% on an annual basis, collapsing tax base, people enjoying tax evasion and fraud without any sense of shame, large percentage of labor force employed by the gov., collapsing private sector, **people that could not take on any hardship and frequently resorting to street violence for fiscal crisis.
A perfect country for national bankruptcy.
The fiscal specialist Prof. Reinhart mentioned that in the last 200 years, Greece has been in debt restructuring/renegotiation for 50 years. The "best" record among all European nations.
Just deja vu.
现在之所以因为缺美元而头疼，主要还是因为债务链的问题吧，或者是CDS之类的或者是保险之类的总之和北美的银行或者公司签署了很多偿还美元的协议，我猜想是这样。有没有办法先稳住内部，比如内部的银行之间先不要逼债什么的。
During the Mao' era, and also early 1980's.
Real stupidity and mindlessness.
difficult 用行政手段
will increase parallely?