主题：有人说下最近香港的事吗？ -- 谢家堂前
first of all, I type English much faster, and don't care about ideology, I care only about logic and how to model this "social science" world, sometimes with a modern physics methodology, and have no personal (being attacked or attacking someone, arguments normal though) interests whatsoever in this forum, which is a great public forum.
1.
the Chinese perspective of 自贸区
香港的金融中心地位最多维持到2016年 花13 半新 聚散之间 字
一国两制是个筐，强者决定怎么装 花203 半新 夜郎国主 字2069 2013-09-26 07:05:18
"聚散之间" and "夜郎国主" wrote very well, a very good approximation of TG's line of thinking on this 自贸区 thing;
2.
your this post provides a great international perspective
the fundamental concept of 法律体系 as a fundamental system basis of 金融測度 and 金融 as the best allocation of capital and other production factors are kind of beyond the comprehension of many Chinese, very likely including TG's top folks, it is an almost a blind spot/盲点 in their mind, possibly due to the Chinese culture of 5k years + their self interests as a ruling political regime as one of the few still existing authoritarian type.
3.
nobody can afford a 认知盲点 in his/her mind
if a nation has a 认知盲点 in his mind, this nation is not going to a leader in the world
in a way, education ( including those private ones) is all about cleaning 认知盲点 out of one's mind.
that education better to be a good one, or it will likely make 认知盲点 things even worse.
4.
US actually has a 认知盲点 in its mind, among many, naturally.
they don't really understand Marxism (and therefore TG to some extent, that may be partially why US is now largely focusing on economic competition with china), but luckily for them, humanity's trial of Marxism is over for the foreseeable future.
that is kind of bad for TG, TG's advantage =(夜郎国主's post wrote very well about 中国主體文明) 中国主體文明 + 列宁建党建军 theory/model
中国主體文明 =largely shared as a common culture by Chinese people, formatted in 5k years;
TG's 列宁建党建军 theory/model= 千锤百炼 of about 100 years?
It is very difficult if not impossible to break any one of the above two, and now you have the two built together into one very resilient 中国特色 system organically by TG already, for "good" or for "bad", nobody knows until another 5 k years later?
5.
TG's 战略盲点
1)
an example of too many
from sina weibo
@_-冰翼-_
小学一年级的新书把我萌倒了！
(1375)| 转发(10733)| 收藏| 评论(4317)
@对冲基金-云岭渔樵: //@菜根坛主任: [飞机]//@平壤崔成浩:回复@她他牠的塔:怕被你们赶上，我笑不出来。 //@她他牠的塔: @平壤崔成浩 小崔，你该偷笑了 //@大鹏看天下:不走苏联路线了，改走朝鲜路线？ [弱]//新加坡路线
and I have to say, at least, in terms of physics and math education/research, china is not really catching up, and yes, china produces millions engineers every year.
2)
yes, things like this could vell be a tiny tactical move in TG's "大棋盘" , by TG in terms of tightening political/ideology control while pushing for even more capitalist economic reforms
still, Tg's 苏联路线 or even 朝鲜路线 (regardless of TG's 战略忽悠 or whatsoever) image/or political core of its basic model, or perception, is not going to help TG to figure out "金融市场的基本要求是自由并因此可预期" 金融 game for china, and human capital game, science and technology game etc behind 金融 game, in building a first class modern country of the world, and to be a leader, you need to be the first among many first class modern nations.
from sina weibo
【上千亿债务压顶 光伏”僵尸“重生渺茫】“国内前十大光伏制造企业的总负债已经高达上千亿，行业普遍负债率在70%以上。”中国可再生能源学会副理事长孟宪淦表示。部分地方政府已经爱莫能助，企业前路注定充满艰难险阻，也许在未来行业兼并重组大潮中仅能保留下一个招牌
6.
if you lose 金融 game, human capital game, science and technology game, what else do you really have left in this largely nuclear- equilibrium world?
you can't finance your military building up, and not only that, those expensive/cash eating military machine (of course including those "corrupt" and hungry generals or to be generals) will come back hunting you, asking for cashier checks from you, everyday, what are you going to do?
from weibo
习近平近日参加河北省委常委专题民主生活会。
省委常委、省军区司令员史鲁泽说，在自己的工作领域，有时存在宴席不高档是“不给面子”，场面不壮观是“没有重视”，开道没有警车是“不够隆重”等错误认识
small money for those 省军区司令员 folks.
7.
china 崩溃, very much like china's so acalled 北京共识 as world new leader, are all extremely small probability event: both of them are too simple and too naive
as I said before, TG/Chinese people=an odd couple of working marriage of human being's largest single household ever, 清官难断家务事, but this Chinese 家 will grow along, with GDP growth rate >6.5% at least? that is still amazing, despite of all kinds of debt/corruption problems, etc
the risk: 近亲繁殖, all most the opposite of US model, and which model has a competitive advantage in this increasingly globalized market place of financial capital and human talent?
8.
US, the beautiful coming back kid of global capitalism
fed recent release: 1) us household net worth all time high passing 2007, 2)Commercial and Industrial Loans at All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)trending up, consumers and businesses all steadily making a living like normal animals would do, despite of US gov cutting back, sequester, etc
9.
as smart as TG is, eventually I guess, a mainland version of 新加坡 model may be put on TG 政治局 table as the only "logical" and feasible option going forward for TG itself, and for china as well
以前看过一篇文章，说西南甚至越老柬等地的人民都相当推崇诸葛亮的，因为当年诸葛亮七擒孟获，以使当地民众开化，现在还有武侯祠在那儿供奉着呢。诸葛亮对当地人来说也是征服者吧，所以说不要因为人家供奉来福士，就说人家怎么怎么的，要看来福士在那儿做了什么才是正道。是恩是恨，只有当地人才清楚。
如果有可能，全城80%的人都会走光。为什么？97后的10年，让他们看到和体验了一个环境极度污染，政治相当腐败，假货毒食横行，没有道德底线的中国社会。有爱国愤青一定会高喊让他们走，留下地方即可。相对于无奈的广东人，香港人至少还能维持一点选择权，如果有足够的离乡背井的勇气，他们会选择逃走。香港是香港人的香港，他们世代在这三个小岛上生活繁衍，现在面对一个他们不愿归心的母国強权威胁:你们要选择站队！抱此言论的人不反省自身原因，一边忍受着上述恶劣中国社会现状的压迫，一边却让那些不愿忍受的人选择站队（言下之意是站己方队），不觉得精神分裂么？所谓"子不嫌母丑"，至少母亲都应该有点可爱之处才好吧。
中国的问题，外来挑战有国家实力支撑，并不构成大威胁，而积重难返的内部问题才是主要威胁。当下中国，并不具备凝聚整个中国社会进而影响世界的核心价值体系，却有着庞大的综合国力，就像一个梦游的人，手中居然挥舞着大棒球棍，的确让人望而生畏。疯子不可怕，球棍也不可怕，但疯子加球棍则会让人无语，只有恐惧的份儿。
周公吐哺，天下归心。向周公学习，先正己，后正人吧。
大陆穷的时候，港人热忠于到大陆包二奶，看不出有啥道德底线。
说穿了，就是港人感觉和洋人近，比大陆人高等，一旦大陆让利少了，就作势闹。
它才不关心呢
什么叫如果有可能80%的人都会走光，有人拿铁链锁住他们吗?你以为他们没有跑过?香港人那时候怕97就象怕世界末日一样，能跑的早就跑了.后来回归之后,发现天没有踏下来,马照跑舞照跳,反而是自己在外面坐吃山空,只好又跑回来.什么97之后的10年见识了XXXX的中国社会，你妹的,香港在火星上吗?深港一河之隔,97之前就没有少联系,之后的联系就更密切了，香港人已经到了拿个钱包抬腿就上大陆的地步,连行李都不用拿,还不知道大陆这边是什么情况?你想黑大陆可以，可不可以不要胡扯?
毕竟香港是我们的香港，TG不会不关注，只是不再宠爱。
香港是港人治港，所以需要自身的努力。
港人需要认识到生活质量与回归大陆的关系不大，与受到TG宠爱的关系很大。而宠爱是不是一个稳定的正常的现象，意识到了失宠，调整好心态才是正事。中了彩票大奖，过了一段花天酒地的生活，现在钱花光了，再中彩票大奖几乎不可能，恢复过正常人的生活才是正事。
以前，由于有tg的宠爱，港人普通人也较富裕，虽然少数人更富裕，但是大家觉得算了。现在，不再有宠爱，港人需要修改税收体系，对富人也应该征重税了。当然，这需要港人自己决定。
什么“核心价值体系”？“美国梦”的核心价值体系是什么？就是“个人通过奋斗就能够成功”嘛！之前中国经济起飞一个很重要的原因不就是如此吗？当然了，改开30多年后“个人通过奋斗就能够成功”的豪情壮志要打个疑问号了。
莫非兄台对普通民众的各种体验有异议？
总算还可以自由表达下他们的意愿吧。你去大陆街上散散步试试？
这种心态放到中国大陆这种主体文明的所在的，其实就是汉奸心态，无论统治者是谁，他们是没有底线的。
中央政权要真的敢不顾及影响的对他们挥动屠刀杀服他们，他们也会接受，只不过吃相比较难看罢了。当年清帝国打入中原的时候，不是很多东林党人投敌当汉奸了吗？
其实大陆内部有很多人和香港人的心态是一样的，但是，他们在大陆被称为“汉奸”。
为什么说是好事也是坏事？好事的原因是，如果你足够强，你就可以用正义的名义征服他们。中国要成了超级大国，乱七八糟的声音会少很多。
坏事是，这种文化并没有被消灭，包容这种文化会助长汉奸文化。一旦大陆主体文明衰弱，这些人真的会称为汉奸，形成内部混乱的来源。
我的意见是这种文化必须被淘汰，自然选择的角度，是从种群的角度来的，一个种群里如果都是只顾自己，不顾种群的话，这个种群即使再庞大，也是被捕食者
1. 房地产发达，底层人民蜗居
2. 房价高企，地租成本使实业不堪承受，成为世界上最不适宜投资实业的地区之一，只能搞投机倒把业
3. 物价高，一群住在山上湖边的寄生虫利用高物价盘剥香港平民
4. 文化次。接触过的欧美人（大陆人）和香港人（新加坡）比起来，后者明显缺乏自信，属于奴才心态太久养成的公民性格
5. 汉奸多，这不怪他们，这种大国斗争的夹缝地带的人，都是这样的。
不是牺牲他们就是牺牲别人，如果真要想改变，就请拿出点自己下地狱或把别人送进地狱的勇气来吧。
民主是什么，不光是享受权力，也要承担义务。
一国两制，“两制”是权力，“一国”就是义务。
你不承担义务，也就不配享受权力。
还有：HK必须没落，不是因为我讨厌它，而是一群不想承担义务，只想享受权力的刁民，给整个世人带来的影响太坏。HK的没落，将明明白白地告诉世人：民主，既是享受权力，也要承担义务。不想承担义务者，不配享受权力，也不配被他人认可。
愿后来者以HK为戒！