主题：【原创】中国巴西经济小议兼及印度 -- 葡萄

China's government recently reported that its GDP grew at a 10-percent clip in the first quarter of 2006, and India's economy is expected to expand almost 9 percent this year. Nearly all of the E-7 countries - and many more in the emerging world - have projected 2006 growth rates surpassing that of the United States and the rest of the G-7.

That growth can be seen in ambitious construction projects in these nations.

China plans to build 14 express highways, six railways and a dozen new seaport facilities before 2010. India invests 3.5 percent of its GDP on power plants, roads and other infrastructure and the government there is financing "industrial townships" to promote more manufacturing. Even Bangladesh, one of the world's poorest countries, is building hundreds of miles of highways, as well as schools, water systems and the like.

China's energy consumption is expected to be 69 percent higher in 2010 than in 2002, according to the Federal Energy Information Administration. That growth rate is five times higher than the estimate for the United States and more than 15 times higher than Europe.

China, in the midst of a massive infrastructure build-out, used half of the world's cement and 40 percent of the world's steel last year, according to government statistics.

But because of years of low commodity prices and other factors, exploration and development of these now-coveted resources have not kept pace with global population and GDP growth. That has created an Economics 101 scenario - demand is greater than supply, so prices climb.

Not only are populations growing quickly in many developing and emerging nations, so are their incomes and their desires for the types of consumer goods that Westerners have long taken for granted. In the past two decades, China's per-capita GDP has gone up more than tenfold.

According to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), more than 40 percent of the world's economic GDP growth over the next decade is expected to come in China, India, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America.

By 2010, these "rapidly developing economies" are also expected to account for a third of sales for multinational corporations, according to BCG.

And as those economies expand, there will be greater demand for oil, gold, minerals and other natural resources.

The benchmark CRB Commodity Index has consistently been in record territory in recent months. It is up roughly double in less than five years. Gold, silver and platinum prices have risen 100+ percent since early 2001, while zinc, lead and copper are each up more than 200 percent. For crude oil and natural gas, the price hike is greater than 300 percent. Despite these impressive run-ups, we believe that we are still early in the secular bull market for these and other commodities.

To get some perspective on this enduring rally, you can look at the "Kuznets Cycle," a cycle of economic activity that drives commodities demand.

Economist Simon Kuznets, who came up with the concept of GDP, won the 1971 Nobel Prize for his work to explain infrastructure investment. That work is relevant to what we're seeing today in emerging nations. Kuznets noticed that roads and highways, seaports, airports and other infrastructure are built over a 15- to 20-year period. It is a period of strong jobs creation, and once these pieces are built, the economy is growing and robust.

A good example of this is when the U.S. built interstate highways in the 1950s. This construction work absorbed more than half of the world's commodities. This is very significant as we look at those emerging economies that have policies for infrastructure construction and growing demand for commodities.

Asia's rapid growth is driving this secular bull market. Asia's 3 billion people now consume about 20 million barrels of oil daily, while 300 million Americans consume 22 million barrels per day. The difference is that Asia has been growing at 6 percent per year, twice the U.S. rate. Since 2000, there have not been enough new discoveries of oil, gas and precious metals to meet Asia's demand as they have built infrastructure. This is the most important reason why we are living with ever-higher energy prices.

Emerging economies are also heavy consumers of copper, whose price has been at record levels this spring. Copper inventories hit a 30-year low this past summer, and there have been a host of issues - refining bottlenecks, various labor issues and rising capital costs - that have kept the market tight.

Toyota's Prius hybrid automobile uses five times more copper than a standard gasoline-powered car. With the strong demand growth for hybrids, we will continue to see strong copper demand for products such as the Prius.

In the short term, the biggest domestic risk we see for copper prices is the housing market. The average house contains some 400 pounds of copper in the form of wiring, water pipes and appliances, so if home construction were to slow down dramatically, that could hurt copper prices in the short term. Long-term, there is still much demand around the world without much increase in supply. China has been negotiating energy and minerals deals with South American and African countries as a way to ensure supplies to feed its economy.

When it comes to China, our investment team has a simple philosophy: whatever China needs, get long, and whatever they have as surplus, get it out of the way, because China will just dump it. That happened with both steel and aluminum.

It's very important to be able to track those supply and demand factors. Copper prices took off when China stopped selling copper. Zinc prices were 45 cents a pound last year when China was a net seller, and they're nearly four times higher since the country became a net buyer. China is also no longer exporting silver, whose price is at a 25-year high.

复比较随笔3:高技术\外汇储备\就业\基础设施\农村还有老龄化

家园

一点更正

1，中国的基本国情是农村人口大于城市人口,目前大致是2:1.

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按第5次人口普查，城镇的人口占总人口的43%；居住在乡村的人口占

总人口的57%，不是2：！。农村7亿多人，不是通常朗朗上口的9亿农民。

也不是有5亿农民要转移。除去老人小孩，农村20-45岁之间可以转移的

人，实际在3亿左右，已经在外打工有1.5亿。

2，农村的计划生育情况实际与城市不一样,老年化趋势在中国是有,但是这必须在城市化而且是在高度城市化地区才有这个趋势.

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不管怎么样不一样，90年到2005的回归计算，每妇女生育率是1.59。2000年后总体的

生育率就只有1.4左右，在经济与社会可持续发展的警戒生育率1.5以下。现在，农

村的年轻人并不象大家想象的愿意生。越来越多的人只生一个孩子。

按照2006年教育部公告，三年时间减少小学生1300万，主要就是农村的，农村小学

关闭了9万所。

http://hxsj319.com/dispbbs.asp?BoardID=29&replyID=16288&id=2307&skin=1

3，老年化趋势在中国是有,但是这必须在城市化而且是在高度城市化地区才有这个趋势.

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老龄化农村的趋势更严重，在城市，在在高度城市化地区反而不明显，因为年轻人都

到城市去了，比如上海人口生育率长期低于1，要靠他自己早衰退了，就是靠外地人

撑者。所以靠上海，广州，北京这些地方来估老化情况和影响是不对的。要迷惑决策

者，造成重大误判。

党国英就指出过农村的“空心化”影响了新农村建设

　　张：前两天我去了河北的一个村，他们村里面十七八岁到30多岁的年轻人全部在城里打工，留下来的大多是老人、妇女、儿童，造成了农村的“空心化”。那么这个村如果还想搞产业化的话，是不是它反而变成一个劳动力紧缺的地方了，那这个矛盾怎么解决？

　　党：你说的这个问题在现在的农村是非常普遍的。从世界经济的发展经验看，劳动力的转移应该是差劳动力流向城市。为什么呢？因为土地规模经营达到一定程度，它必然对农业经营者的水准有一定要求，差劳动力是搞不了的。我们现在是逆向，好劳动力转移到城市了。造成我们目前这种现状的原因就是，现在每家的地太少了，老人或妇女基本就可以种，导致我们农业效率的损害。

　　所以说要促进劳动力转移，靠经济结构调整来推动中央所说的适度规模经营，土地制度要跟上。每户几亩地，靠经济结构调整提高农民收入是有价值的，但它不可能造就新一代的富裕农民。

　　张：如果说将来大量的农业人口转移到城市，城市的工业、服务业能不能大量地吸纳这么多人？

　　党：近几年农村转移劳动力非常迅速，随着我国GDP的高速增长，就业人数显然在增加。我国东部地区前两年已经出现劳动力局部短缺，现在已经影响到中部地区。城市第三产业容纳劳动力的能力很强，可以吸纳这些劳动力。但如果农村都剩下老人、妇女、儿童，这对新农村建设肯定有影响，其意义也要打折扣。

复一点更正

家园

多谢指教

del

复多谢指教

家园

要有提前量要打！

如果只从就业观点也要考虑到提前量问题。

人口有2，30年的生产时滞。