主题：【原创】美国股市在搞什么鬼？国外投资人的陷阱？ -- 倥偬飞人

the element of surprise is missing. many investors are already in bear market or money market funds.

usually a crash should not happen without the majority being trapped at the top.

but maybe this time it's different. the US' trouble has been known for too long, by too many people. it's become increasingly tough to pull off another magic under so many watchful eyes and suspecting minds.

the risk. DOW just a little off its record highs. VIX, the measurement of complacency, at historical lows - that's not what people should be doing if they have become prudent. The markets are still at the top, but will get off there sooner than people expected. At the beginning of this year, 12 biggest investment firms unanimously predicted another record high year for 2007. Are the crowds already prepared for the crash? Not likely.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0216.html

not a crystal ball - this saying in this very article makes a lot of sense.

Money flow could work against you at any time. In January, money out-flow has exceeded in-flow by $11 billion. The US needs $70 billion net in-flow to finance their debt. Without fundamentals to support the stock markets, it will be just like a car trying to go forward without its wheels - crash will not be a surprise, but until then, who knows?

各国当权者都对金融问题采取了鸵鸟态度，而危机不会消失，将来我们回首今天，可能不无悔恨。

外链出处

外链出处

Durable goods orders: down 7.8%

Transportation orders fell by 18 percent, a figure affected heavily by a 60.3 percent drop in civilian aircraft orders. Boeing Co. reported orders of just 13 planes in January, after a strong tally 212 in December.

Defense aircraft and parts orders also fell 54.6 percent.

Automotive orders also fell 5.1 percent following a 5.3 percent rise in December.

Existing home sales went up 3%, but price down 3%!

美国现在衰退,两年可不可以走出来.老美这段时间看来要搞事了,估计要收拾新兴市场国家,东南亚,印度之流,日本也别好过.

中国会受多大影响,学老朱98年,好好搞我们的基础设施建设,新农村建设,应该能撑过去吧!