主题：12/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Initial jobless claims (558K expected), Leading Economic Indicators (-0.5% expected), and the Philly Fed (-40.0) are all out Thursday, the last reports of the week. There will be the usual affairs no doubt, including earnings warnings and analyst opinions. The dollar, oil along with LIBOR and credit spreads are in the mix as well.

In short, the same issues facing the market each day. The rally has remained intact nonetheless and the price/volume action and leadership suggest it will remain that way barring some new and unexpected bad event.

That means we are looking for the Wednesday pullback to continue and lead into a new bounce where DJ30, SP400, SP600 and company attempt to take out the next resistance at the 50 day EMA. We are going to use the pullback to monitor stocks that surged and are testing back to near support, setting up for the next move. Leadership continues to set up and improve, and as good stocks break higher we will continue to move in and buy. This surge allowed us to take some nice profits, and the pullback will reload some positions so we can ride the next rebound to some more gains.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1579.31

Resistance:

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

The 50 day EMA at 1637

1644 from August 2003

1752 from 2004

1782 from August 2004

1786 is the November 2008 high

Support:

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1542 is the early October 2008 low

The 10 day EMA is 1539

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 18 day EMA at 1531

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1499.21 is the 2008 closing low

1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.

1428 is the November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1253 is the March 2003 low on the test of the rally off the 2002 bear market low

1108 is the 2002 low

S&P 500: Closed at 904.42

Resistance:

919 is the early December peak

The 50 day EMA at 931

965 is the 2003 consolidation low

995 from June 2003 consolidation peak

1008 is the November 2008 peak

1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.

Support:

899 is the early October closing low

896 is the late November 2008 peak

889 is an interim 2002 peak

The 10 day EMA at 886

The 18 day EMA at 882

866 is the second October 2008 low

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

839 is the early October 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the November 2008 low

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

741 is the November 2008 low

650 on the top and 625 on the bottom of a 7 month range in 1996

475 from 1994 where the market moved laterally for the entire year.

Dow: Closed at 8824.34

Resistance:

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

The 50 day EMA at 8983

9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation

9323 From June 2003 peak

9575 from September 2003, May 2001

9654 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day SMA at 8715 stopped the Dow all last week & we will see if it acts as support now

The 10 day EMA at 8691

The 18 day EMA at 8650

8626 from December 2002

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.

8141 is the early December low

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.

7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.

7702 is the July 2002 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 low

7282 is the October 2002 low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

December 15 - Monday

December NY Empire State Index (8:30): -25.8 actual versus -27.0 expected, -25.4 prior

Net Foreign Purchases, October (9:00): $1.5B actual versus $65.4B prior (revised from $66.2B)

Capacity Utilization, November (9:15): 75.4% actual versus 75.6% expected, 76.0% prior (revised from 76.4%)

Industrial Production, November (9:15): -0.6% actual versus -0.8% expected, 1.5% prior (revised from 1.3%)

December 16 - Tuesday

Core CPI, November (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, -0.1% prior

CPI, November (8:30): -1.7% actual versus -1.3% expected, -1.0% prior

Housing Starts, November (8:30): 625K actual versus 730K expected, 771K prior (revised from 791K)

November Building Permits (8:30): 616K actual versus 700K expected, 730K prior (revised from 708K)

December 17 - Wednesday

Crude oil inventories (10:30): 525K actual versus 600K expected, 400K prior

December 18 - Thursday

Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 558K expected, 537K prior

November Leading Economic Indicators (10:00): -0.5% expected, -0.8% prior

Philadelphia Fed, December (10:00): -40.0 expected, -39.3 prior