主题：12/17/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 12/17/2008

ACET (Aceto--$10.37; +0.04; no options): Drugs

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acet.html

EARNINGS: Early February

STATUS: Test breakout. ACET broke higher in early December, moving out of a 10 week ascending base. We rode it higher but it quickly dumped on us only to catch itself at the 50 day EMA and hold. That rebounded ACET. Strong move Tuesday, then a test lower Wednesday that rebounded to flat. Very strong earnings growth rates. Good volume on the recovery Wednesday. Looking for volume to stay solid as ACET continues the break higher.

Volume: 236.957K Avg Volume: 164.615K

BUY POINT: $10.52 Volume=225K Target=$12.75 Stop=$9.78

POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acet.html

Play Date: 12/17/2008

KSU (Kansas City Southern--$20.20; +3.36; optionable): Railroads

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html

EARNINGS: 2-3-08

STATUS: Double bottom. The rails held out the longest before succumbing to the selling, but when it came the selling was sharp. KSU made us money earlier in the year on the run, then it tumbled in October and again in November. It bounced and then sold and bottomed again just this week. Strong volume Wednesday as KSU bounced as part of the infrastructure, re-flation trade. Looking to ride a rally up toward the 50 day EMA at 25.36

Volume: 4.361M Avg Volume: 1.851M

BUY POINT: $20.55 Volume=2.3M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.11

POSITION: KSU CD - Mar. $20c (55 delta, low OI) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html

Play Date: 12/17/2008

STP (Suntech Power Holdings--$10.81; +0.91; optionable): Sun power

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stp.html

EARNINGS: Third week of February

STATUS: Trend reversal. Crushed in the 2008 selloff that started with the start of the year. From big winner to about 10% of its prior value. After another particularly ugly selloff in October and November, STP has worked laterally, and on Wednesday broke over a 7 day tight, lateral trading range on a shot of volume. May be waking from its slumber. It can ride on up to the 50 day EMA (14.85) and give us a very nice gain.

Volume: 5.648M Avg Volume: 5.938M

BUY POINT: $11.04 Volume=7M Target=$14.88 Stop=$10.11

POSITION: STP CY - Mar. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stp.html

Play Date: 12/17/2008

XIDE (Exide Tech--$5.08; +0.28; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xide.html

EARNINGS: Early February

STATUS: Saucer. XIDE made us some very nice gain in the first half of 2008 as it rallied with the industrials. It peaked in June and sold off more than 75% of its value. Over the past 11 weeks it has formed a nice rounded bottom, a shallow cup often called a saucer. Volume started moving to above average levels on the upside moves the past four weeks. Wednesday XIDE rallied up to the 50 day EMA (5.04) on very strong trade. Money flow has turned up ahead of price and XIDE looks to be in very good shape to give us a strong breakout.

Volume: 1.51M Avg Volume: 1.127M

BUY POINT: $5.21 Volume=1.2M Target=$6.85 Stop=$4.77

POSITION: FRU CA - Mar. $5c (75 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xide.html

Play Date: 12/17/2008

XTO (XTO Energy--$38.15; +0.49; optionable): Independent oil and gas

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xto.html

EARNINGS: Early February

STATUS: Ascending base. After a sharp selloff in two legs starting in June and ending in October, XTO has formed the current 10 week ascending base. It is making a series of higher lows below a constant top near 40ish. If volume spikes higher we are ready to move right in as opposed to waiting for it to clear the 90 day SMA at 40.14. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and that is one reason we are looking for XTO to pop on through with a strong surge.

Volume: 10.319M Avg Volume: 12.62M

BUY POINT: $38.64 Volume=16M Target=$44.88 Stop=$36.32

POSITION: XTO BG - Feb. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xto.html