主题：12/19/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Upside:

Play Date: 12/20/2008

ANN (Ann Taylor--$6.07; +0.19; optionable): Women's clothing stores

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ann.html

EARNINGS: Third week of February

STATUS: Trend reversal. ANN is back on the report as it has continued its lateral move to consolidated the early December, and high volume, move off of the 'low.' The 'low' was made after a particularly ugly September to late November 86% price decline. ANN based for 8 months ahead of that tumble. What does that mean? Not much other than it was trying to set up to move higher before the credit debacle hit. In any event it reversed the trend on strong volume, and for the past 8 sessions it has moved laterally, consolidating the reversal. Friday volume spiked. Rebalance, expiration, whatever. Money flow is indeed turning higher even as the price works laterally. Looking for a break higher on solid volume. May not want to marry this one, but it sure can give us a good run higher toward the 50 day EMA (9.09) as our initial target.

Volume: 4.062M Avg Volume: 2.214M

BUY POINT: $6.21 Volume=3M Target=$8.91 Stop=$5.57

POSITION: ANN CA - Mar. $5c (75 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ann.html

Play Date: 12/19/2008

BIDU (Baidu.com--$131.07; +0.38; optionable): Chinese internet search

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html

EARNINGS: Third week of January

STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. It has been awhile since we played BIDU during its massive 2007 run from 100 to 400 and the unreal money it made for us. Indeed, it has been over a year now, but after an extremely hard August to November selloff (350 down to 105), BIDU has double bottomed the past 5 weeks, gapping higher Tuesday to clear the 18 day EMA (128.26) and then working laterally the rest of the week to form the handle. Very low volume on the lateral move after great volume on the break higher. Just going to wait for BIDU to finish this lateral move and show us the break higher. That is when we move in and look for BIDU to move to the 50 day EMA (164) as our original target. Then we see what it has from there.

Volume: 2.072M Avg Volume: 4.177M

BUY POINT: $133.12 Volume=5.8M Target=$163.75 Stop=$124.98

POSITION: BDQ CG - Mar. $135c (49 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html

Play Date: 12/20/2008

BMC (BMC Software--$26.36; +1.35; optionable): Application software

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmc.html

EARNINGS: Late January

STATUS: Cup w/handle. BMC held up better than many of its brethren this year, setting up a nice base in Q1 and breaking out to a nice gain. That, however, lead to a peak and a selloff from June through late October. Up nicely, then was taken down ultimately. Over the past 7 weeks, however, BMC has formed a really nice base after hitting a low in late October. Big volume Friday, and we will have to see if that was just a product of expiration and rebalancing on the S&P. BMC is in that group of business service stocks that will lead out of a bottom, and BMC has set up a base at the bottom of the selloff to do just that.

Volume: 3.934M Avg Volume: 2.622M

BUY POINT: $26.55 Volume=3M Target=$30.89 Stop=$24.77

POSITION: BMC BE - Feb. $25c (70 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bmc.html

Play Date: 12/20/2008

EPIQ (Epiq Systems--$16.21; +0.11; optionable): Technology solutions for the legal profession

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epiq.html

EARNINGS: Late January 2009

STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. EPIQ made us some good money over the last few weeks. Then it started to test on some rising volume so we took all the gain off the table to see how it held and if it would give us a new buy. It is holding at near support at the 18 day EMA (16.16), and it has shown some increasing volume as it tests and holds this level. That can indicate that buyers are stepping up. We will simply let EPIQ show us if it is ready to continue its move by giving a bounce upside on strong volume. EPIQ is one of the small business service stocks that came off the October low with a vengeance and was an early leader. This test could give it the rest it needs to send it upside once more.

Volume: 505.577K Avg Volume: 360.605K

BUY POINT: $16.77 Volume=545K Target=$19.88 Stop=$15.84

POSITION: FQU DC - Apr. $15c (67 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/epiq.html

Play Date: 12/20/2008

VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$19.88; +0.28; optionable): Semiconductor equipment

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html

EARNINGS: Late January

STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. VSEA is an interesting stock for us. It made us some huge coin in 2007 when it had a pair of massive runs. That was the peak of its life cycle at the time, however, and it has spent the last 18 months in a nasty selloff. VSEA is also interesting because it was a stock that made us a sack full of money in October to December 2002 as it was one of the chip stocks that led the market off the October low in the initial run off the bear market bottom. Thus VSEA has some early cycle properties as do chip stocks in general (thus we find it interesting that they are suddenly outperforming other sectors even though they are still universally hated and despised by the analysts). Thus when we saw VSEA set up this current 10 week pattern, making a couple of higher lows and higher highs along the way, showing strong upside volume as well, our interest was piqued. VSEA broke over the 50 day EMA (19.75) Wednesday on strong, above average volume and then tested Thursday and Friday, showing a doji Friday. Like what we see so far, but needs to show us the volume once more as VSEA continues the move and perhaps is once again an indicator of the amrekt bottom.

Volume: 1.178M Avg Volume: 1.182M

BUY POINT: $20.74 Volume=1.4M Target=$24.91 Stop=$18.94

POSITION: UES BD - Feb. $20c (55 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html

New buy point on current position:

Play Date: 12/20/2008

BHP (BHP Billiton--$41.38; +0.33; optionable): Industrial metals

http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html

STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking to pick up some more of BHP on this test of the 50 day EMA (40.58). BHP broke higher for us early last week but then tumbled Thursday when much of the commodities and materials stocks sold post-Obama stimulus announcement Wednesday. Nice hold at the 50 day, showing a doji Friday. Money flow remains super. Looking for that volume to kick back up as BHP starts back up. That is when we put some more money to work on this stock that is in great position.

Volume: 4.311M Avg Volume: 6.903M

BUY POINT: $41.78 Volume=8.5M Target=$49.91 Stop=$39.44

POSITION: BHP BH - Feb. $40c (52 delta) &/or Stock

http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhp.html