主题：12/23/2009 Market View -- 宁子

SUMMARY:

- Another soggy day as stocks cannot find any traction and no late rebound.

- More of the same puts market close to the point it needs to show a rebound.

- Many malign this market action, but it is still positive, and that in itself makes a couple of positives.

Investors still buying at the mall but not at the market.

Once more the market started positive yet again it gave up the gains. An early attempt to sell the gains was rebuffed as weak home sales data (-2.9% new homes, hitting a 17 year low, and -8.6% existing homes) was trumped by Michigan sentiment bubbling up to 60.1 versus the 59.1 in November and the 58.5 expected. That staved off the sellers, but they were back in a half hour, and they had help. Stocks tumbled into lunch. Another midday lateral move, another failed midday lateral consolidation. Stocks fell to new session lows by mid-afternoon. There was another last hour rally, but it was a piker compared to Monday. The indices recovered half to all of the mid-afternoon slump by the close, but that kept them well off the highs. Losses were modest yet again, but they are piling up to the downside. The indices did not violate the lows of the recent ranges, and after 5 down days on DJ30 and 4 of 5 on NASDAQ and SP500 the indices are a bit oversold. Thus far, however, there is no inkling of a bounce as investors seem to be at the stores this week buying versus the stock market.

TECHNICAL. Intraday the market gave away an early gain once more. Started higher, tested the 10 and 18 day EMA, faded back down. Not even a very good rebound late. Another lackluster day where the market could muster no traction.

INTERNALS. Breadth was passable, volume was insanely light. There is nothing nefarious about the action, just a lack of interest, something of a buyers strike or more appropriately, a buyers absence.

CHARTS. The indices continue sagging toward the bottom of the range, but they still have not violated it or the line from the October lows. After a week of downside still holding the range is not bad. Price/volume action remains solid with the low trade on the downside and rather modest price moves lower. There are simply no buyers interested this past week. Stocks are holding the recent range indeed, but they are at the point they need to step up and star the upside on this rally once more. Either this week or next it needs to occur as there is not a whole lot more downside room to give.

LEADERSHIP. Many solid stocks are still holding support eve with the Tuesday continued slouch, but there are also many showing the strain. Most are far from breaking down, but they are not showing the same nice, orderly testing to near support. Business services, metals, chips and retail remain in good pullbacks, but they are at points where they need to put in their moves. In short, there are still solid stocks in solid position, but they are approaching the point they need to make a new move.