主题：12/23/2009 Market View -- 宁子

Just a half session Wednesday, and there is just not a whole lot you can do with a half session. There are a few stocks we are looking at if they do make a move off of this test, but outside of that you simply don't want to get too active. What we want to see is the indices hold the line and start a long awaited Christmas bounce that takes it on into the end of the year.

What stocks? Looking to see if RMBS can provide a buy off of its test of the 18 day EMA following a solid surge off the November low. NUE is also a stock showing a very good testing progress. BBY is making a great test in a solid pattern. ITRI is set up beautifully. If they move we will move in.

This market right now has a lot of detractors. Cramer is on this week saying everyone is love with this market but that he hates it, ready for it to go lower. I don't know who he is talking to. Everyone I know hates the market or is, more importantly, just apathetic about it. They are so tired and beaten up they just don't have an opinion on it other than the old toss the hands in the air as a sign of, well, capitulation. Cramer was all buy after the TARP announcement only to see the market get crushed even more. Now he is negative on the market even as the market shows some strength and leadership it has not had since the start of the selling over a year ago.

It is somewhat reminiscent of the early 2003 market where 99.9% of the pundits said we had a bear market rally that was failing. What we saw, however, was a market working back and then laterally on very good price/volume action and solid stocks building solid bases. We kept saying through the weeks that the action was positive and at the least you did not want to short it. Right now the action is positive with low trade on the selling and overall positive price/volume action. The indices are holding their range. Leadership continues to hold up well on the lateral move. Sure it is just a microcosm of the 2002 surge and early 2003 test; we are still looking for the 2002 like rally to emerge out of this rally start. That does not change the theme, however, i.e. a good move off the lows, a good consolidation showing the right kind of technical action, and good leadership from small business services, some chips, some tech, some retail, some small industrial.

Thus while the frustration builds and others look for the dam to break we are being patient and looking for opportunity if it turns up. Sure the market could still go right on down. The best traders admit they are wrong as much as they are right, but they are ready to take advantage of opportunity when it shows up, snap it up, and move on. This market is just taking its time with a leisurely lateral stroll. It is still showing positive attributes so we are still going to look for a positive resolution. Indeed, the fact that many are negative on it is a positive in itself.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1521.54

Resistance:

The 18 day EMA at 1535

1536 is the late November 2008 peak

The 10 day EMA is 1539

1542 is the early October 2008 low

1565 is the second low in October 2008

1579 is the 50 day SMA that stalled NASDAQ last week

1603 is the December peak

1620 from the early 2001 low

The 50 day EMA at 1622

1644 from August 2003

1752 from 2004

1782 from August 2004

1786 is the November 2008 high

The 90 day SMA at 1835

Support:

1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low

1499.21 is the 2008 closing low

1493 is the October 2008 low. Key low.

1428 is the November 2008 low

1398 is the early December 2008 low

1387 is the 2001 low

1295 is the November 2008 low

1253 is the March 2003 low on the test of the rally off the 2002 bear market low

1108 is the 2002 low

S&P 500: Closed at 863.16

Resistance:

866 is the second October 2008 low

The 18 day EMA at 880

The 10 day EMA at 880

889 is an interim 2002 peak

896 is the late November 2008 peak

899 is the early October closing low

919 is the early December peak

The 50 day EMA at 923

965 is the 2003 consolidation low

995 from June 2003 consolidation peak

1008 is the November 2008 peak

1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.

Support:

853 is the July 2002 low

848 is the October 2008 closing low

839 is the early October 2008 low

815 is the early December 2008 low

818 is the November 2008 low

800 is the March 2003 post bottom low

768 is the 2002 bear market low

741 is the November 2008 low

650 on the top and 625 on the bottom of a 7 month range in 1996

475 from 1994 where the market moved laterally for the entire year.

Dow: Closed at 8419.49

Resistance:

8451 is the early October closing low. Key level to watch.

8521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 low

The 10 day EMA at 8594

The 18 day EMA at 8604

8626 from December 2002

The 50 day SMA at 8684 stopped the Dow on the prior bounce

8829 is the late November 2008 peak

The 50 day EMA at 8916

8934 is the December closing high

8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidation

9200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation

9323 From June 2003 peak

9575 from September 2003, May 2001

9654 is the November 2008 peak

Support:

8141 is the early December low

8197 was the second October 2008 low

8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.

7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.

7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.

7702 is the July 2002 low

7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low

7449 is the November 2008 low

7282 is the October 2002 low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

December 23 - Tuesday

Q3 Chain Deflator-Final (8:30): 3.9% actual versus 4.2% expected, 4.2% prior

GDP-Final, Q3 (8:30): -0.5% actual versus -0.5% expected, -0.5% prior

Existing Home Sales, November (10:00): 4.49M actual versus 4.93 expected, 4.91 prior (revised from 4.98M)

Mich Sentiment-Revised, December (10:00): 60.1 actual versus 58.6 expected, 59.1 prior

New Home Sales, November (10:00): 407K actual versus 420K expected, 419K prior (revised from 433K)

December 24 - Wednesday

Initial Jobless claims (8:30): 558K expected versus 554K

November Durable Orders (8:30): -3.1% expected, -6.2% prior

Person Income, November (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior

Personal Spending, November (8:30): -0.8% expected, -1.0% prior

Crude oil inventories (10:30): 525K prior