主题：【原创】美元末日理论：高度投机的经济 -- 子玉

危机之后欧美出现的剧烈收缩首先是源自信用货币去杠杆化的结果。伯南克以及美国政府为什么朝美国银行注入巨额无担保货币，实际也是缓冲去杠杆化后的市场货币供应的紧缩。

--M3/M0 ratio normally stays at 9 in States. After Lehman's collapse, this ratio fell to 6.8 to 6.9. Bernanke hiked the M0 from 800b to almost 2.3t (peak time, now falls to 2t). I remember that M2 data stayed flat even after the Sep crisis last year, due to B's efforts.

Bernanke believed that asset price is the key to maintain corporate/consumer confidence and then stimulate real activity back to normal.

But we often overlook the 5t Euro-dollar market. The Lehman collapse result in temporary USD withdrawal from this market and LIBOR Overnight rate (I watched it closely in Sep) hiked to more than 5% immediately. Several European banks were killed due to their USD exposure. Then USD appreciation triggered the run on Eastern European currencies and then hit back on Western European banks (not including UK).

I have to say Paulson-Bernanke axis of evil are really smart.

简短的说，美国的银行在危机后段段半年里，银行的高倍杠杆率从63倍下跌到与日本接近的35倍，

--are you sure about your data?? First, you are talking about investment banks, not commercial banks. Commercial banks could never have such high assets/equity ratio(normally should be around 10).

Second, even US investment banks' non-risk-adjusted assets/equity ratios were not that high.

For example, Lehman B/S 2008/1, Assets/Eq = 30.8, a simple leverage measure.

Goldman, Q2/09: 14, Q1/09:13.6, Q4/08:12.7, Q3/08:22.7, even Nov/07 this ratio is 26.

而中国只有12倍。

--you compare apple with orange. 12 refers to commercial banks? or securities firms? or investment trust firms?

If that's the ratio from Big 4 commercial banks, then you are comparing US Investment banks to Chinese commercial banks.

If this 12 is based on all the securities firms, then your argument makes sense.

同时，美国政府通过有史以来最庞大的财政赤字用债券平衡了货币公式的两端。

既在公式填平的两端，一边加重无担保货币的注资帮助银行去杠杆化，

--? no, just maintain reasonable leverage level and gradually improve. Big loss is the reason for leverage increase. 700B is not enough to dramatically improve American banks' balance sheet (B/S)

一边用巨额国债平衡无担保货币带来的通胀风险。

--that's a bit confusing.

现在美国危机逐渐在触底（起码目前如此），是应该从天平两边同时给筹码减磅的时候了。

--withdraw M0, since multiplier returns back to normal (say 8 or 9), then M2/M3 could be maintained.