主题：花47刀买的每月ETF投资建议，这是最新一期 -- 一直在混

　　TRADE ALERT 2: THE “NEW NORMAL” FOR

　　AMERICAN CONSUMERS (PART II)

　　I first wrote about the “new normal” for American consumers last month. I recommended VIS, an industrials ETF, as a play on this trend. Wouldn’t you know, it’s up over 10% already.

　　This month we’re going to stay in the same vein but take it in another direction. I’m talking about a play on the recovery in consumer spending.

　　Retail stocks have been on fire this year. In fact, they’re up a whopping 62%. In large part, the gains have been driven by expectations of better economic times ahead.

　　But some companies are truly thriving in this environment. They’re using the economic downturn to “turn the screws” on cash strapped competition. They’re growing their market share and positioning themselves to make a lot of money as the economy improves.

　　When we finally come out of the recession, the good companies are going to be rewarded handsomely.

　　Macro/Economic Trend: Save Now, Buy Later

　　There’s always two sides to every argument. And the debate over how much consumers will spend post-credit bubble is no different.

　　The argument against a strong economic recovery is the same old story. Consumers can’t, or won’t, spend enough to be the growth engine they’ve been for decades.

　　Some experts point to high levels of household debt. They contend it will take years to bring the debt levels down to a manageable number.

　　But I disagree. I think the consumer will adjust to the new rules quickly. We’re already seeing the consumer shift from a “buy now, pay later” mentality to a “save now, buy later” mindset.

　　And it’s happening much faster than anyone thought. American consumers shed a record $21.6 billion in debt last month. That blew away economists estimates of $4 billion.

　　I think the consumer is going to come out of this crisis much better off. It’s basically force-feeding a shift away from credit card dependency. It will hurt sales in the short run. But in the long run, consumers will have more money to spend on stuff.

　　Here’s why.

　　The monkey on the consumers back is interest payments on credit card balances. But once consumers have paid down debt and put away some savings, they aren’t going to continue to save, save, save.

　　They’ll use their savings to buy stuff. And they’ll be able to do it without a credit card tacking on 20% interest.

　　Big picture this is a very good thing for retailers and consumers. The ETF I like best in this industry is the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).

　　Fundamentals: A closer look at XRT

　　XRT holds 61 retail stocks. They include small, medium, and large cap stocks. This ETF is very evenly weighted with most stocks getting between 1% and 2% weighting.

　　Its expense ratio is relatively small at 0.35%.

　　The top five holdings and percentage weights for XRT are –

　　Company Name

　　Ticker

　　% Weight

　　Office Max

　　OMX

　　2.4%

　　Nordstrom

　　JWN

　　2.0%

　　Whole Foods Market

　　WFMI

　　2.0%

　　Priceline

　　PCLN

　　2.0%

　　Tiffany

　　TIF

　　2.0%

　　XRT also holds a number of smaller retailers who are shining bright. They’re posting their best earnings even as the rest of the economy struggles. These companies have a lock on innovation, style, and price. The three main catalysts for retail growth. Now as the economy improves, it should boost earnings across the board.

　　Technicals: The charts lead the way

　　Take a look at the chart of XRT. You’ll see it’s in a long term uptrend dating back to the March low.

　　In fact, the 20-day moving average has supported the price on any small pullback.

　　The strong price action over the last few weeks has XRT racking up gains much faster than the S&P 500. This relative strength is a good sign institutional investors are putting money to work in this sector.

　　All in all, it’s a great technical setup.

　　Trade Alert

　　Buy: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) up to $34.75

　　Recent Price: $33.00

　　Price Target: $41.00

　　Stop Loss: $28.00

　　Remember: XRT is in a strong uptrend. It’s being pushed higher by some of the smaller companies who are thriving in the economic downturn. A good Q3 earnings period should push XRT higher. But if Q3 numbers disappoint… We could finally see a pullback.