主题：【原创】上海自由贸易区---赌博的市场化？ -- 思想的行者

1.

固定汇率围墙 twisted exchange rate/capital market, among all other 官办经济 problems, for example:

不要低估的中国国内的热钱的数量 [ 乱武 ] 于:2013-09-02 05:29:52 复:3912165

中国国内的热钱，很可能是超出很多人想象的。除了短期的投资资金之外，还有大量的通过虚假贸易和虚假直接投资到中国套利的资金。据媒体报道，很多地方官员为了招商政绩，出钱请外资到中国注册虚假公司，这些资金不是投资在实业里的，情况一有变化就逃跑了。

外资出逃，并不只是因为美元升值或者是因为看空中国经济。有相当一部分资金会因为套利成本上升而出逃，在美国流动性宽松的情况下（2012年底，美国10年期国债利率仅1.55%），对冲基金低息借入美元，然后到中国赚取高息。在高杠杆的情况下，这种收益是客观的。但美国收紧流动性，利率上升时，这样的操作的获利空间就会越来越小，甚至可能亏损，这部分资金就会疯狂出逃。

中国只有通过持续的高利率和高汇率，才可以留住外资，如果留不住，楼市泡沫和地方债泡沫都将破灭。可是，高利率和高汇率，都是扼杀实体经济的，接下来的几年里，中国经济危险得很。想象一下，当美国国债利率上升到4%时，中国的利率要多少，才能留得住外资？

外汇储备其实并不属于政府，中国之所以有这么多外汇，是因为中国特有的结售汇制度。外资进入中国之后，央行受走外汇，印对应数量的人民币给境外投资者。如果境外投资者都决定把手里的人民币都换成美元的话，央行手里的外汇很快会消耗得很快的。

2.

the worst part of 官办经济: it has totally twisted financial market's gauging functionality for the economy, for china itself, and even for world as well to some extent

US white's financial gauging system: "有恒产者有恒心", 中产阶级 +capitalists leveraging /risk taking with their own 玩命 money, widely distributed across the entire economic system, to cheat/套利 those 中产阶级 +capitalists systematically and over long term is basically impossible under such a system, with its 信息流 (financial market) and 能量流(gdp growth, profit, etc) tend to converge over time and @ macroscopic level, kind of like 经典热力学(or some kind of 量子理想气体) 配分函数 near equilibrium, and overtime, it is basically a 正则 system, or the global capitalist system as we know would have collapsed already (yes, a couple of earthquake happened, a barely working system in a way).

as such, white financial gauging system is approximately 正则 distributed with 中产阶级 +capitalists with their own blood/sweat money, collecting and analyzing economic information across all sectors, real time and global, and overall system kind of works=配分函数/financial market gauging functionality works, humanity lives and progresses overall under the present capitalism, this is basically the physics side of efficient market theory. there is no alternative gauging system besides this current one, not even in theory.

obviously, white's financial gauging system has gone through years of evolution to adapt to the global capitalist economy.

3.

TG's 官办经济 basically came out 30 years ago.

well, whatever works, the famous trick of TG, the problem: does global capital market like china 官办经济? it used to.

domestically, whether you are a 官 capitalist or private capitalist, you are twisted by this Chinese 官办经济 system with your blood sucked out by it all the time, how long you can hang on there still operating your business profitably ?

presently, how those TG local 军区军分区 pay their bills? still relying on leveraging 房地产兵团?

extremely speaking.

4.

TG 命根子: military 围墙

传家宝="《国家与革命》是列宁在十月革命前夕撰写的一部关于马克思主义国家学说的经典著作，全书共六章，系统地阐述了马克思主义的国家学说，特别是无产阶级专政的学说"

it obviously costs TG huge amount of money to build it up.

the worst part as we all (or some) know: it is the corruption within 解放军, and it seems no one can control it, why? again, 中国特色

military 围墙 (military corruption (no one including Mao can control, cultural revolution) feeding into system), together with exchange rate围墙 cost TG big money, 两个围墙剥削压迫實體經濟, GDP 潜在增长率 pressured.

5.

TG: a lonely political superman as of now

as I have been writing, TG is basically on its own"斜路 (vs "standard" or normalized white "正则 system), in terms of TG's totally rejecting global capitalism mechanism politically and fundamentally, and spending huge money to propaganda and maintaining such a system of 中国特色.

in terms of physics, is such a 中国特色 system "正则"? if not, it is not going to be stable, it is not going to work, long term;

the burden to prove that TG/china is "正则": that is TG top's job to prove to global capital market first, then to TG's followers, etc

again, it is all about expectation of future risk of investing with TG/China Inc., and obviously both TG inside share holders, and outside international investors are all super smart folks, no one can really force them to hang on with TG, TG has to be able to make good "investment return" for them to stay with TG.

in a twisted way, nobody really cares anymore about TG=whose 代表/whose money? or ideology, or environment or future "stuff": TG in a way has transformed "strangely & over night" into a real capitalist company: TG writes check every day to its inside stake holders, all kinds of them, retiree, urban unemployed, etc, small guys, and big guys like 解放军 folks, and eventually or indirectly, those international investors through Chinese economy system.

ideology used to be TG's 兵不厌诈 super weapon for 党套利群众, not anymore. and again in a twisted way, and in many areas ideology has come around the other way: for example, ideology has now become 5 cents folks群众 trick to 套利党 to make a living. physics "正则" theory.

ideology could be very colorful @ all kinds 大脑激发态, cash is only in one form: hard & cold, and in USD only, 能量 tends to hang on @基态稳定态.

6.

as long as TG can somehow make money and pay bills, everybody is happy, no questions asked, what about what if scenario?

nobody knows=risk, and because of that, we need a global capital market, so we can all analyze and hedge the risk with each other and collectively, so we can all move on economically, together and by ourselves, there is really no god.