主题:【文摘】一道有趣的概率题 -- 天下第一银杏树
共:💬28 🌺15
i. 不重新选:
猜对汽车概率 1/3
ii. 重新选:
1/3概率: originally you have picked the car, after switching, you loose the car.
2/3概率: originally you have picked the goat, after switching, you gain the car.
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Conclusion: you SHOULD switch!
You can write a simple Monte Carlo program to verify it.
- 相关回复 上下关系8
my annotated MATLAB code. How about ur manual list? 1 衲子 字1144 2005-08-05 23:17:31
清楚了 1 林小筑 字2003 2005-08-06 00:22:50
I see. It all boils down to the question what is Omega? 衲子 字388 2005-08-06 01:16:06
应重新选择, 概率变大 1/3 -> 2/3, Monte Carlo verified
😜del landlord 字0 2005-08-05 15:17:59
概率变大了(1/3-》1/2),但事件仍然是等概率的,信息量为0。 1 寓幻 字22 2005-08-05 12:16:06
😁没这么简单,这道题很有意思的。 1 林小筑 字254 2005-08-05 13:19:19
这个问题我见过,在91年的少年科学杂志上有。 大风 字60 2005-08-05 11:26:34