主题:【文摘】一道有趣的概率题 -- 天下第一银杏树
This can be better understood by drawing a Venn diagram.
In your interpretation, the case might as well be presented as follows: The hostess first pick a door randomly, which happens to reveal a goat. Conditioned on this, would you have any preference as to which of the remaining two doors to pick? Of course not, since each door would have the probability of 1/2 of hiding a car!
- 相关回复 上下关系8
I actually did manually list all cases. May I see your code pls? 林小筑 字0 2005-08-05 21:49:45
my annotated MATLAB code. How about ur manual list? 1 衲子 字1144 2005-08-05 23:17:31
清楚了 1 林小筑 字2003 2005-08-06 00:22:50
I see. It all boils down to the question what is Omega?
应重新选择, 概率变大 1/3 -> 2/3, Monte Carlo verified 1 衲子 字321 2005-08-05 14:58:49
😜del landlord 字0 2005-08-05 15:17:59
概率变大了(1/3-》1/2),但事件仍然是等概率的,信息量为0。 1 寓幻 字22 2005-08-05 12:16:06
😁没这么简单,这道题很有意思的。 1 林小筑 字254 2005-08-05 13:19:19