主题：局部暴风骤雨将来 -- 胡里糊涂

简介：洪洞县里无好人。如今帝国里充斥着各种坏人，都是损公肥私的家伙。懂王你上次就是被这些建制派耍了，这次一定要远离建制派啊。

评论：问题大家都知道，但是别说帝国末期了，就是初期，饶是朱元璋，毛泽东都斗不过还没织成密网的官僚，如今米国官商学一体，懂王还只有四年，能干成啥？

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Countering the National Security Establishment

对抗国家安全机构

You outraged the foreign policy swamp when you denounced endless wars, and they spent four years trying to remove you from office. The swamp bet the farm on endless war in Ukraine, and your refusal to play along makes you their irreconcilable enemy.

当你谴责无休止的战争时，你激怒了外交政策的沼泽，他们花了四年的时间试图将你赶下台。沼泽把农场押注在乌克兰无休无止的战争上，而你拒绝配合会让你成为他们不可调和的敌人。

Don’t underestimate how determined they are to stop you. You hired establishment types in your first administration and had cause to regret it every time. Now, there’s no room for compromise with the swamp.

不要低估他们阻止你的决心。你在第一届政府中聘用了建制派人士，但每次都有理由后悔。现在，沼泽已经没有妥协的余地了。

The Deep State entrapped your first National Security Adviser, General Mike Flynn, and his successors H R McMaster and John Bolton repaid your trust by turning on you. You can’t trust the failed, feckless foreign policy establishment.

深层政府诱捕了你们的第一位国家安全顾问迈克·弗林将军，而他的继任者 H·R·麦克马斯特和约翰·博尔顿则通过背叛你们来回报你们的信任。你不能相信失败、不负责任的外交政策机构。

It knows nothing but forever wars and meddling in other countries’ affairs. The problem is that the establishment has controlled promotion in government service and academia for three generations, so any candidate with a big resume got it the wrong way.

它只知道永远的战争和干涉别国的事务。问题在于，该机构已经控制了政府服务和学术界晋升达三代人事件，因此任何拥有丰富履历的候选人都不是好货。

Vance may not have a lot of foreign policy experience, but common sense is a better qualification than years of pushing incompetent policies. Ask Victor Davis Hanson to run foreign policy and national security recruitment for the transition team.

万斯可能没有很多外交政策经验，但常识比多年来推行不称职的政策更好。请维克多·戴维斯·汉森 (Victor Davis Hanson) 负责过渡团队的外交政策和国家安全招聘工作。

And continue to seek the advice of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, your strongest supporter overseas and the smartest politician in Europe. Vance’s plan to end the war in Ukraine—establishing a ceasefire, a buffer zone, and Ukrainian neutrality—will do the job.

并继续寻求匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班的建议，他是你在海外最强有力的支持者，也是欧洲最聪明的政治家。万斯结束乌克兰战争的计划——建立停火、缓冲区和乌克兰中立——将会实现这一目标。

David Friedman did a brilliant job crafting the Abraham Accords as Ambassador to Israel in your first term. Persuade him to return to the job. The Biden administration treats Saudi Arabia like a pariah and cozies up to Qatar, the host and paymaster to Hamas.

大卫·弗里德曼（David Friedman）在您的第一个任期内担任驻以色列大使，在起草《亚伯拉罕协议》方面表现出色。说服他重返工作岗位。拜登政府像对待贱民一样对待沙特阿拉伯，并巴结哈马斯的东道主和出钱人卡塔尔。

That’s an outrage, especially after the October 7, 2023 massacre. Reach out to the Saudis and the UAE. Otherwise, US influence in the region may dissolve in the face of China’s diplomatic initiatives.

这是一种愤怒，尤其是在 2023 年 10 月 7 日大屠杀之后。联系沙特和阿联酋。否则，面对中国的外交举措，美国在该地区的影响力可能会消失。

You rightly proposed a missile shield to protect the United States. Reviving Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative is the best defense policy anyone has put forward in years.

你正确地提出了导弹防御系统来保护美国。恢复里根的战略防御计划是多年来提出的最佳国防政策。

You will get bad advice from the uniforms. They wasted trillions building the wrong kind of military and will try to justify their previous blunders by demanding more of the same. We don’t need nearly a quarter million troops deployed overseas.

你会从穿制服的那里得到馊主意。他们浪费了数万亿美元来建设错误的军队，并将试图通过要求更多同样的军队来为他们之前的错误辩护。我们不需要在海外部署近25万军队。

The Navy’s expeditionary forces are obsolete. Surface ships are sitting ducks for anti-ship missiles—and China has thousands of them. Meanwhile, our depleted industrial base can barely build one submarine a year.

海军的远征军已经过时了。水面舰艇是反舰导弹的靶子——中国拥有数千艘水面舰艇。与此同时，我们枯竭的工业基础每年几乎无法建造一艘潜艇。

The Pentagon brass will feed you phony scenarios to justify more obsolete legacy systems. Hire experts who see through flummery like Air Force officer and Stanford Professor Oriana Skylar Mastro.

五角大楼的高层将向你提供虚假的场景，以证明更过时的遗留系统是合理的。聘请像空军军官和斯坦福大学教授奥丽安娜·斯凯拉·马斯特罗这样能看穿谎言的专家。

You can’t trust the US Intelligence Community. Fifty-one senior intelligence officials signed a statement in 2020 claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop story was a Russian hoax. That might have cost you the election. Their appointees hold all the senior jobs today.

你不能相信美国情报界。 2020 年，51 名高级情报官员签署了一份声明，声称亨特·拜登笔记本电脑的故事是俄罗斯的骗局。这可能会让你输掉选举。如今，他们任命的人担任所有高级职位。

Seventy percent of the US intel budget goes to private contractors, opening the system to cronyism and corruption. It will take years to clean up this mess. In the meantime, create a “Team B,” a small group of people you can trust at the National Security Council to keep you informed on world affairs and double-check the CIA’s daily briefing.

美国情报预算的 70% 流向了私人承包商，导致该系统容易出现任人唯亲和腐败现象。清理这个烂摊子需要数年时间。与此同时，建立一个“B 组”，即国家安全委员会中值得你信任的一小群人，让你随时了解世界事务，并仔细检查中央情报局的每日简报。

Don’t trust the “process people” at the White House. Your Deputy Chief of Staff Chris Liddell told a Republican luncheon not long ago that by picking the people who would attend meetings at the Oval Office and assigning their roles, he could predetermine your decisions 90% of the time. Bring in outsiders who work for you, not the swamp.

不要相信白宫的“流程人员”。你们的副参谋长克里斯·利德尔不久前在一次共和党午餐会上表示，通过挑选在椭圆形办公室参加会议的人员并分配他们的角色，他可以在 90% 的情况下预先决定你们的决定。引进为你工作的外人，而不是沼泽地。

We’re in a situation like 1973, when Soviet air defense ruled the skies. In less than ten years we invented smart warfare, turned the tables on Russia, and began winning the Cold War. We invented the Digital Age as a byproduct of our revolution in defense technology.

我们现在的处境就像 1973 年，当时苏联防空系统统治着天空。在不到十年的时间里，我们发明了智能战争，扭转了对俄罗斯的局面，并开始赢得冷战。我们发明了数字时代，作为国防技术革命的副产品

Don’t put a flag officer or defense contractor lobbyist in charge of the Pentagon. Appoint a defense secretary with deep knowledge of new military technologies, someone like Michael Griffin, your Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and the former head of NASA.

不要让军官或国防承包商说客负责五角大楼。任命一位对新军事技术有深入了解的国防部长，比如迈克尔·格里芬（Michael Griffin），负责研究和工程的国防部副部长和NASA前局长。

Under fiscal constraints, we can’t expand defense spending across the board. Focus on missile defense for the American homeland and American military assets. Cut legacy spending on forever wars, like the 230,000 US troops deployed overseas, and legacy systems like aircraft carriers.

在财政限制下，我们无法全面扩大国防开支。重点关注美国本土和美国军事资产的导弹防御。削减长期战争的遗留支出，例如部署在海外的 23 万美军，以及航空母舰等遗留系统。

Your first two defense secretaries came respectively from the Marines and the defense industry—and both of them tried to stop you from winning in 2024. You would be better served by a scientist who understands high tech in defense of the American homeland. Chips for defense and critical infrastructure should be produced at home under secure conditions.

你们的前两位国防部长分别来自海军陆战队和国防工业，他们都试图阻止你们在 2024 年获胜。一位了解保卫美国祖国的高科技的科学家会为你们提供更好的服务。用于国防和关键基础设施的芯片应在安全条件下在国内生产。

Biden’s CHIPS Act is a disaster. It gave $8.5 billion to Intel just before it laid off 10% of its workforce. Worst of all, it left out R&D for chips based on new technologies. We’ve played Whack-a-Mole with China’s chip industry for five years. The battle for semiconductor dominance will be won by chips using interaction at the molecular or atomic level, with speeds orders of magnitude faster than silicon.

拜登的《CHIPS 法案》是一场灾难。就在英特尔裁员 10% 之前，它向英特尔提供了 85 亿美元。最糟糕的是，它遗漏了基于新技术的芯片研发。我们和中国芯片行业玩打地鼠游戏已经五年了。利用分子或原子水平相互作用的芯片将赢得半导体主导地位的争夺战，其速度比硅快几个数量级。

Finally, the swamp bet the future of NATO on the Ukraine misadventure. That disaster will cripple, if not destroy, NATO in its present form.

最后，沼泽将北约的未来押在了乌克兰的不幸事件上。这场灾难即使不会摧毁现有的北约，也会削弱它。