主题：局部暴风骤雨将来 -- 胡里糊涂

懂王正在组建自己的班子，这一看，全是妖魔鬼怪。

他也反思，他反思上次执政就是因为班子不听话，因此这次他决定都用“有德之人”，也就是绝对听话的，至少得是和他心意一致的，如此才能如臂使指，指哪打哪。这是老板思维。

他这真就是孙猴子要大闹天宫了。米国经济大萧条指日可待，经济不行接着就是社会动荡，画面太美。

现在为止，党国构建自己的体系算是中成吧。米国暴风骤雨起来，当然对世界有大影响，不过党国应该算是能抗住，也就是米国感冒，党国打喷嚏。也正好借势把自己的体系建筑得更庞大，更牢固吧。

不论如何，大家还是得在经济上谨慎些，对小草，小飞虫来说，一颗雨滴也是不小的。

卢比奥上了，大家就不必见面，不必商谈了。

要打仗吗？好啊，铁木真怎么说的，你要战，便来战。问题是米军不想战，而日韩台没一个是傻逼，都想着米国出战呢。菲律宾？它也不敢。

如果狂风骤雨，那也是下在台湾。

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懂王此次内部问题为重，他和卢比奥也不亲，任用这个建制派的小丑，我看是先要对付“盟友”，等把“盟友”都薅光了，再把他换了。

对华事务，懂王会亲自掌舵的。

亚太特朗普还能拉来啥？真擦枪走火，他敢动用帝国全部兵力梭哈东亚？东亚这边一旦枪响，就是米帝霸权图穷匕见之时，不应就坐实绥靖，米帝成空气，TG从此横着走；要应的话，怎么应？太平洋舰队司令下令开火都换来下属越级上报抗命，懂王要是真敢干，估计马上挨枪子。

当压力来临的时候，最先崩溃的往往是一贯不受压的部分，米帝太平洋舰队早在霓虹和夏威夷的和风里泡软了，川普就算脑袋被夹也不敢相信他们。因此东亚基本就是明棋，只有一笔交割的价值，而没有加价梭哈的价值。8年来极限施压已经疲软，卢来了也就炒点冷饭，真宣布呆湾独立又能咋样？太平洋舰队第一时间跑路，留一堆蛙守孟良崮？哪只蛙有当张灵甫的觉悟？而呆湾一旦梧桐，日韩要么万岁冲锋，要么改旗易帜，于是东亚一波全送，米帝还混不混了？

其实床破的路，已经非常明显，要想米帝中兴，几乎只有华山一条道：那就是苏拉之路。外部钱不好讹了，投入产出比不划算，而且内部一堆饕鬄，就算讹来一座金山，内部一顿吃干抹尽，连渣都不会给懂王留多少。因此“攘外必先安内”，外部“清妖”再凶狠，也有太平洋隔着，罗马当年外部高卢、努比底亚、迦太基都是土鸡瓦狗，只要帝国内部理顺，分分钟碾压。而按罗马的传统，内部问题，向来要杀得尸山血海，利益面前无法妥协。

现在就台湾问题的一切动作，只能沦为向中国喊话的象征性操作。

真要对中国现实利益有动作，就绝不能在中国家门口动。

看到大卫戈德曼最近发了一篇给懂王的公开信。他算是现实主义者吧，起码我认为比米尔斯海默要现实，他算是认识到现今米国的困境，也提出了自己的路线。但是，老实说，现在属于无力回天的地步。

Dear President Trump:

Congratulations on your November election victory. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have left you with a strategic disaster and a fragile economy, but you have put forward a program to keep the peace and restore economic growth. Here are some ideas that may help in your efforts, followed by more specific proposals:

祝贺您在 11 月选举中获胜。总统乔·拜登和副总统卡马拉·哈里斯给你们留下了战略灾难和脆弱的经济，但你们却提出了维持和平和恢复经济增长的计划。以下是一些可能对您的努力有所帮助的想法，然后是更具体的建议：

Inflation is closer to 8% than the official “3%” after figuring in higher interest costs to consumers. Biden started this inflation by running record budget deficits and the Federal Reserve made it worse by increasing the interest burden on consumers. You must educate the American public on this reality and get the right people in place to fix it.

考虑到消费者更高的利息成本后，通货膨胀率比官方的“3%”更接近 8%。拜登通过创纪录的预算赤字引发了通货膨胀，而美联储则通过增加消费者的利息负担使情况变得更糟。你必须让美国公众了解这一现实，并安排合适的人来解决这个问题。

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点评：印钱是懂王上一任期开始的，和疫情有关，这疫情就是米国特务机关搞的。懂王自己先挑起反华游戏，大家都不敢对华说一句软话，那会被说卖国，因此懂规拜随，关税也不敢降，通胀活该。

The federal budget deficit is 6.4% of GDP, “larger than any deficit in records going back to 1930 except the years around World War II, the 2008 financial crisis, and the pandemic,” according to the Tax Foundation. Federal interest costs have doubled and now cost as much as defense. Get people on the Fed board who understand your economic agenda.

根据税收基金会的数据，联邦预算赤字占 GDP 的 6.4%，“比 1930 年以来有记录的任何赤字都要大，除了二战前后、2008 年金融危机和新冠疫情期间之外”。联邦利息成本增加了一倍，现在与国防成本一样高。让美联储董事会成员了解你的经济议程。

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点评：联储当然知道危机，鲍威尔刚才降息25点，就是给懂王意思一下，懂王要是不够意思，联储就不好意思了。

Our woke education system is a disaster and has betrayed working-class kids. We can’t fill skilled jobs in manufacturing because high school graduates lack basic math skills. In the short term, state community college systems and work-study apprenticeship programs can help. Create a federal-state initiative for public-private partnerships in manufacturing skills, and ask Governor Ron DeSantis to head it.

我们觉醒的教育体系是一场灾难，背叛了工人阶级的孩子。我们无法填补制造业的技术岗位，因为高中毕业生缺乏基本的数学技能。在短期内，州立社区大学系统和勤工俭学学徒计划可以提供帮助。制定一项联邦州倡议，促进制造技能领域的公私合作伙伴关系，并请州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯 (Ron DeSantis) 领导该倡议。

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点评：因果是这样的，先是米国经济去工业化，然后教育跟着市场走，没有工程师职位学啥数理化，那么费脑子的。实在需要还有外国学生顶上。没见硅谷阿三化了嘛。

Vice President-elect J D Vance offered a workable peace plan in September to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Give him a big role in handling the Ukraine problem. Leftovers from the foreign policy establishment in your first administration did nothing but sandbag you. Don’t listen to them and put a smart outsider in charge instead.

当选副总统万斯 (J D Vance) 于 9 月提出了一项可行的和平计划，以结束俄乌战争。让他在处理乌克兰问题上发挥重要作用。第一届政府外交政策机构的残余除了耍你之外什么也没做。不要听他们的，而是让一个聪明的局外人来负责。

The US military-industrial complex is a hopeless morass of corruption and incompetence that can’t make enough artillery shells to supply Ukraine, let alone enough submarines. Bypass the Pentagon brass and the defense contractors and choose a secretary of defense who understands new defense technologies.

美国军工联合体是一个腐败和无能的绝望泥沼，无法制造足够的炮弹来供应乌克兰，更不用说足够的潜艇了。绕过五角大楼的高层和国防承包商，选择一位了解新国防技术的国防部长。

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点评：人家是一个复合体，个人怎么对抗组织？

Your proposal to put high tariffs on Chinese EV imports but allow Chinese companies to build plants in the US is brilliant—and very much like Ronald Reagan’s response to Japanese auto imports in the 1980s.

您对中国电动汽车进口征收高关税但允许中国企业在美国建厂的提议非常出色，这与 20 世纪 80 年代罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 对日本汽车进口的反应非常相似。

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点评：时代不同了，不搞死金融业，怎么可能重建制造业？

An America First Economic Policy

Biden and Harris left you with record debts and deficits, and a dangerous household debt burden. Their reckless spending on handouts to their favored constituencies caused this inflation, not monetary policy, as David Malpass observed.

拜登和哈里斯给你留下了创纪录的债务和赤字，以及危险的家庭债务负担。正如戴维·马尔帕斯（David Malpass）所观察到的那样，他们不计后果地向自己喜欢的选民发放救济品，导致了通货膨胀，而不是货币政策。

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点评：懂王先发钱的。

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long and then raised them too much. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers showed that the real inflation rate is double the official number after including higher interest rates. Ask him to help the Bureau of Labor Statistics publish the real inflation rate.

美联储将利率维持在过低水平太长时间，然后又大幅提高利率。前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯表示，考虑到更高的利率后，实际通胀率是官方数字的两倍。请他帮助劳工统计局公布实际通胀率。

You need a stable monetary policy instead of the Fed’s boom-and-bust whipsaw. Put people on the Federal Reserve Board who understand how monetary policy actually works instead of the ideologues who run the Fed today.

你需要稳定的货币政策，而不是美联储的繁荣与萧条的锯齿状政策。让那些了解货币政策实际运作方式的人进入美联储，而不是让当今管理美联储的理论家进入美联储。

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点评：想去金融化？懂王任期就四年，考虑不了那么多。联储给你个好看，然后中期选举就完蛋。

The biggest obstacle to industrial revival is the lack of skilled labor, thanks to the liberals who control US education. Summon the CEOs of our biggest manufacturing companies, and they’ll tell you the same thing: less than a quarter of US high school students are proficient in math. That puts high-end jobs in computer-controlled manufacturing out of their reach.

工业复兴的最大障碍是缺乏熟练劳动力，这要归功于控制美国教育的自由派。召集我们最大的制造公司的首席执行官，他们会告诉你同样的事情：不到四分之一的美国高中生精通数学。这使得计算机控制制造业的高端工作超出了他们的能力范围。

We can fix the problem by enlisting state community college systems in partnership with corporations. Florida already has the ball rolling. Ask Governor Ron DeSantis to head an emergency effort to train skilled workers.

我们可以通过让州立社区大学系统与企业合作来解决这个问题。佛罗里达州已经开始行动了。要求州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯领导一项紧急工作，培训技术工人。

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点评：远水不解近渴，懂王就四年，先报仇，然后安排继承人，没了。

For the first time in American history, America imports more capital goods than we produce for domestic consumption. The downside of tariffs is that they will increase costs for manufacturers who rely on foreign inputs, and domestic substitutes will take time and money to provide. You might propose a tariff rebate for American manufacturers who buy Chinese capital goods to expand production in the US.

美国历史上第一次进口的资本货物（机器，设备，工具等）多于我们为国内消费生产的资本货物。关税的缺点是，它们会增加依赖外国投入的制造商的成本，而国内替代品需要时间和金钱来提供。您可能会建议为购买中国资本货物以扩大在美国生产的美国制造商提供关税退税。

The tax system is rigged against capital-intensive investment, raising the after-tax cost of capital for manufacturing. America’s stock of manufacturing equipment hasn’t risen in 20 years according to the Federal Reserve.

税收制度针对资本密集型投资进行了操纵，从而提高了制造业的税后资本成本。根据美联储的数据，美国的制造设备存量已经 20 年来没有增加。

To return to a long-term growth trend, we need about $1 trillion in capital spending. GOP leaders in Congress should propose emergency legislation to allow immediate tax write-offs of capital equipment.

为了恢复长期增长趋势，我们需要大约1万亿美元的资本支出。国会共和党领导人应提出紧急立法，允许立即冲销资本设备的税收。

The 2017 corporate tax cut, which increased the number of years required to expense capital equipment, should be revised to allow immediate expensing of capital equipment. That may be a bigger stimulus for domestic manufacturing than tariffs.

2017 年的企业减税增加了资本设备支出所需的年数，应进行修订，以允许立即支出资本设备。这对国内制造业的刺激可能比关税更大。

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点评：减税，减税，都减税，那么国家运行的钱从哪来呢？关税就算增加100%，也不过千亿规模吧，还不是得大印钱？这和前面要少印钱又矛盾了。

大起大落的锯齿状政策本身就容易给经济带来大震荡。

马斯克的效率部要对联邦雇员开刀。

米国本身就是个联邦，想集权集不好，结果现在要对联邦雇员开刀，据说要裁撤75%，这是要弱干强枝吗？如果真实行，那好了，分裂进行中了。

懂王现在任命人员，那真就是众正盈朝。前面拜登搞了建制派的众正盈朝，现在懂王搞了极端派众正盈朝。好得很。

另外，懂王要追究米利，就是军队那个。反攻倒算第一案？

米国这出戏，真得多准备点瓜子花生茶水，慢慢看，慢慢品。

对中国，估计就是从各方面脱钩，但也不去管你。

有人点评他提名的官员，是一路路将军，向深层政府，包括国防和情报部门全面开战。还有人建议他特赦斯洛登，让他回来做污点证人。

如果他不死的话，会有好戏看的。

中最大的问题一样在内部。郑开骑行和珠海撞人表现出来严重社会问题的征兆，如果不能及时化解，中会被迫走上中特帝道路，像一二战欧洲列强，以武力获取市场。

简介：洪洞县里无好人。如今帝国里充斥着各种坏人，都是损公肥私的家伙。懂王你上次就是被这些建制派耍了，这次一定要远离建制派啊。

评论：问题大家都知道，但是别说帝国末期了，就是初期，饶是朱元璋，毛泽东都斗不过还没织成密网的官僚，如今米国官商学一体，懂王还只有四年，能干成啥？

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Countering the National Security Establishment

对抗国家安全机构

You outraged the foreign policy swamp when you denounced endless wars, and they spent four years trying to remove you from office. The swamp bet the farm on endless war in Ukraine, and your refusal to play along makes you their irreconcilable enemy.

当你谴责无休止的战争时，你激怒了外交政策的沼泽，他们花了四年的时间试图将你赶下台。沼泽把农场押注在乌克兰无休无止的战争上，而你拒绝配合会让你成为他们不可调和的敌人。

Don’t underestimate how determined they are to stop you. You hired establishment types in your first administration and had cause to regret it every time. Now, there’s no room for compromise with the swamp.

不要低估他们阻止你的决心。你在第一届政府中聘用了建制派人士，但每次都有理由后悔。现在，沼泽已经没有妥协的余地了。

The Deep State entrapped your first National Security Adviser, General Mike Flynn, and his successors H R McMaster and John Bolton repaid your trust by turning on you. You can’t trust the failed, feckless foreign policy establishment.

深层政府诱捕了你们的第一位国家安全顾问迈克·弗林将军，而他的继任者 H·R·麦克马斯特和约翰·博尔顿则通过背叛你们来回报你们的信任。你不能相信失败、不负责任的外交政策机构。

It knows nothing but forever wars and meddling in other countries’ affairs. The problem is that the establishment has controlled promotion in government service and academia for three generations, so any candidate with a big resume got it the wrong way.

它只知道永远的战争和干涉别国的事务。问题在于，该机构已经控制了政府服务和学术界晋升达三代人事件，因此任何拥有丰富履历的候选人都不是好货。

Vance may not have a lot of foreign policy experience, but common sense is a better qualification than years of pushing incompetent policies. Ask Victor Davis Hanson to run foreign policy and national security recruitment for the transition team.

万斯可能没有很多外交政策经验，但常识比多年来推行不称职的政策更好。请维克多·戴维斯·汉森 (Victor Davis Hanson) 负责过渡团队的外交政策和国家安全招聘工作。

And continue to seek the advice of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, your strongest supporter overseas and the smartest politician in Europe. Vance’s plan to end the war in Ukraine—establishing a ceasefire, a buffer zone, and Ukrainian neutrality—will do the job.

并继续寻求匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班的建议，他是你在海外最强有力的支持者，也是欧洲最聪明的政治家。万斯结束乌克兰战争的计划——建立停火、缓冲区和乌克兰中立——将会实现这一目标。

David Friedman did a brilliant job crafting the Abraham Accords as Ambassador to Israel in your first term. Persuade him to return to the job. The Biden administration treats Saudi Arabia like a pariah and cozies up to Qatar, the host and paymaster to Hamas.

大卫·弗里德曼（David Friedman）在您的第一个任期内担任驻以色列大使，在起草《亚伯拉罕协议》方面表现出色。说服他重返工作岗位。拜登政府像对待贱民一样对待沙特阿拉伯，并巴结哈马斯的东道主和出钱人卡塔尔。

That’s an outrage, especially after the October 7, 2023 massacre. Reach out to the Saudis and the UAE. Otherwise, US influence in the region may dissolve in the face of China’s diplomatic initiatives.

这是一种愤怒，尤其是在 2023 年 10 月 7 日大屠杀之后。联系沙特和阿联酋。否则，面对中国的外交举措，美国在该地区的影响力可能会消失。

You rightly proposed a missile shield to protect the United States. Reviving Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative is the best defense policy anyone has put forward in years.

你正确地提出了导弹防御系统来保护美国。恢复里根的战略防御计划是多年来提出的最佳国防政策。

You will get bad advice from the uniforms. They wasted trillions building the wrong kind of military and will try to justify their previous blunders by demanding more of the same. We don’t need nearly a quarter million troops deployed overseas.

你会从穿制服的那里得到馊主意。他们浪费了数万亿美元来建设错误的军队，并将试图通过要求更多同样的军队来为他们之前的错误辩护。我们不需要在海外部署近25万军队。

The Navy’s expeditionary forces are obsolete. Surface ships are sitting ducks for anti-ship missiles—and China has thousands of them. Meanwhile, our depleted industrial base can barely build one submarine a year.

海军的远征军已经过时了。水面舰艇是反舰导弹的靶子——中国拥有数千艘水面舰艇。与此同时，我们枯竭的工业基础每年几乎无法建造一艘潜艇。

The Pentagon brass will feed you phony scenarios to justify more obsolete legacy systems. Hire experts who see through flummery like Air Force officer and Stanford Professor Oriana Skylar Mastro.

五角大楼的高层将向你提供虚假的场景，以证明更过时的遗留系统是合理的。聘请像空军军官和斯坦福大学教授奥丽安娜·斯凯拉·马斯特罗这样能看穿谎言的专家。

You can’t trust the US Intelligence Community. Fifty-one senior intelligence officials signed a statement in 2020 claiming that the Hunter Biden laptop story was a Russian hoax. That might have cost you the election. Their appointees hold all the senior jobs today.

你不能相信美国情报界。 2020 年，51 名高级情报官员签署了一份声明，声称亨特·拜登笔记本电脑的故事是俄罗斯的骗局。这可能会让你输掉选举。如今，他们任命的人担任所有高级职位。

Seventy percent of the US intel budget goes to private contractors, opening the system to cronyism and corruption. It will take years to clean up this mess. In the meantime, create a “Team B,” a small group of people you can trust at the National Security Council to keep you informed on world affairs and double-check the CIA’s daily briefing.

美国情报预算的 70% 流向了私人承包商，导致该系统容易出现任人唯亲和腐败现象。清理这个烂摊子需要数年时间。与此同时，建立一个“B 组”，即国家安全委员会中值得你信任的一小群人，让你随时了解世界事务，并仔细检查中央情报局的每日简报。

Don’t trust the “process people” at the White House. Your Deputy Chief of Staff Chris Liddell told a Republican luncheon not long ago that by picking the people who would attend meetings at the Oval Office and assigning their roles, he could predetermine your decisions 90% of the time. Bring in outsiders who work for you, not the swamp.

不要相信白宫的“流程人员”。你们的副参谋长克里斯·利德尔不久前在一次共和党午餐会上表示，通过挑选在椭圆形办公室参加会议的人员并分配他们的角色，他可以在 90% 的情况下预先决定你们的决定。引进为你工作的外人，而不是沼泽地。

We’re in a situation like 1973, when Soviet air defense ruled the skies. In less than ten years we invented smart warfare, turned the tables on Russia, and began winning the Cold War. We invented the Digital Age as a byproduct of our revolution in defense technology.

我们现在的处境就像 1973 年，当时苏联防空系统统治着天空。在不到十年的时间里，我们发明了智能战争，扭转了对俄罗斯的局面，并开始赢得冷战。我们发明了数字时代，作为国防技术革命的副产品

Don’t put a flag officer or defense contractor lobbyist in charge of the Pentagon. Appoint a defense secretary with deep knowledge of new military technologies, someone like Michael Griffin, your Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering and the former head of NASA.

不要让军官或国防承包商说客负责五角大楼。任命一位对新军事技术有深入了解的国防部长，比如迈克尔·格里芬（Michael Griffin），负责研究和工程的国防部副部长和NASA前局长。

Under fiscal constraints, we can’t expand defense spending across the board. Focus on missile defense for the American homeland and American military assets. Cut legacy spending on forever wars, like the 230,000 US troops deployed overseas, and legacy systems like aircraft carriers.

在财政限制下，我们无法全面扩大国防开支。重点关注美国本土和美国军事资产的导弹防御。削减长期战争的遗留支出，例如部署在海外的 23 万美军，以及航空母舰等遗留系统。

Your first two defense secretaries came respectively from the Marines and the defense industry—and both of them tried to stop you from winning in 2024. You would be better served by a scientist who understands high tech in defense of the American homeland. Chips for defense and critical infrastructure should be produced at home under secure conditions.

你们的前两位国防部长分别来自海军陆战队和国防工业，他们都试图阻止你们在 2024 年获胜。一位了解保卫美国祖国的高科技的科学家会为你们提供更好的服务。用于国防和关键基础设施的芯片应在安全条件下在国内生产。

Biden’s CHIPS Act is a disaster. It gave $8.5 billion to Intel just before it laid off 10% of its workforce. Worst of all, it left out R&D for chips based on new technologies. We’ve played Whack-a-Mole with China’s chip industry for five years. The battle for semiconductor dominance will be won by chips using interaction at the molecular or atomic level, with speeds orders of magnitude faster than silicon.

拜登的《CHIPS 法案》是一场灾难。就在英特尔裁员 10% 之前，它向英特尔提供了 85 亿美元。最糟糕的是，它遗漏了基于新技术的芯片研发。我们和中国芯片行业玩打地鼠游戏已经五年了。利用分子或原子水平相互作用的芯片将赢得半导体主导地位的争夺战，其速度比硅快几个数量级。

Finally, the swamp bet the future of NATO on the Ukraine misadventure. That disaster will cripple, if not destroy, NATO in its present form.

最后，沼泽将北约的未来押在了乌克兰的不幸事件上。这场灾难即使不会摧毁现有的北约，也会削弱它。

How to Deal with China

如何对付中国

We’ve spent $7 trillion on forever wars. China spent $1 trillion on its Belt and Road Initiative. We lost influence and power, whereas China gained both. China’s exports to the US, Europe, and Japan are stagnating, but its exports to the Global South have doubled since you left office. China now exports more to the Global South than to all developed markets combined.

我们已经在永远的战争上花费了 7 万亿美元。中国在“一带一路”倡议上花费了1万亿美元。我们失去了影响力和权力，而中国却获得了两者。中国对美国、欧洲和日本的出口停滞不前，但自您卸任以来，中国对南半球的出口翻了一番。目前，中国对南半球国家的出口量超过了对所有发达市场的出口量总和。

A lot of Chinese exports to the Global South are indirect exports to the US: China builds, plans, and ships components to Vietnam, India, and Mexico, and they export in turn to the US. This translates into a jump in Chinese influence in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, and more US dependence on Chinese supply chains.

中国对南半球的许多出口都是间接出口到美国：中国建造、计划并向越南、印度和墨西哥运送零部件，然后这些零部件又出口到美国。这意味着中国在亚洲、欧洲、中东和拉丁美洲的影响力大幅提升，以及美国对中国供应链的依赖程度加大。

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点评：拉美说是米国后院，如果米国还有制造业，那么起码拉美作为原料产地和商品市场，两者还有一定合作，形成经济圈。现在米国不搞制造了，那和拉美的关系就成了纯粹的掠夺和被掠夺的关系，

China is gaining on us. At best, sanctions on exports of US technology to China buy time. At worst, they will backfire: Instead of keeping China dependent on our products, we have handed Chinese companies a captive domestic market for legacy chips and chip-making equipment.

中国正在追赶我们。充其量，对美国向中国出口技术的制裁可以争取时间。最坏的情况是，它们会适得其反：我们没有让中国继续依赖我们的产品，而是让中国公司拥有了传统芯片和芯片制造设备的国内市场。

We beat Russia in the Cold War by inventing the Digital Age, using NASA and the defense budget to drive breakthroughs in new technologies. We can innovate better than China. But federal support for R&D under Reagan was double its present level as a percent of GDP.

我们在冷战中通过发明数字时代击败了俄罗斯，利用美国宇航局和国防预算来推动新技术的突破。我们可以比中国更好地创新。但里根领导下的联邦对研发的支持占GDP的百分比是目前水平的两倍。

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点评：懂王，马斯克们正准备联邦大裁员呢。一个公司前景不佳都是先裁研发，国家没啥不同，裁掉教育部，nih之类的，我看是懂王要干的。

That’s why it’s critical to shift the defense budget to support new technology. To take only one example: We can’t out-produce China in missiles. The best response to China’s huge force of anti-ship missiles is directed-energy weapons (for example, lasers). But the Pentagon R&D budget for these new weapons is less than $800 million a year, or the cost of ten fighter planes.

这就是为什么转变国防预算以支持新技术至关重要。举一个例子：我们无法在导弹产量上超过中国。针对中国庞大反舰导弹力量的最佳回应是定向能武器（例如激光）。但五角大楼这些新武器的研发预算每年还不到8亿美元，相当于10架战斗机的成本。

We want to maintain the status quo over Taiwan. China won’t risk using force as long as Taiwan doesn’t move toward independence. With thousands of anti-ship missiles and hundreds of 5th-generation aircraft, China already outguns us in the South China Sea. To keep the balance of power, we need new anti-missile technology—not more sitting ducks in the form of surface ships.

我们希望维持台湾的现状。只要台湾不走向独立，中国就不会冒险使用武力。凭借数千枚反舰导弹和数百架五代机，中国在南海的火力已经超过了我们。为了保持力量平衡，我们需要新的反导弹技术，而不是更多水面舰艇形式的坐以待毙的技术。

Act at once on your proposal to combine steep tariffs on Chinese EV imports with an invitation to Chinese companies to build plants in the US. As Elon Musk well knows, China has a big lead in industrial automation, including AI applications and 5G communications.

立即就您的提议采取行动，将对中国电动汽车进口征收高额关税，同时邀请中国企业在美国建厂。埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）深知，中国在工业自动化方面拥有巨大领先优势，包括人工智能应用和 5G 通信

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点评：懂王现在吊民伐罪。懂王的民是南方红脖和北方山炮。他们需要开煤矿，采石油，他们要夺回被剥削权，绝不让机器取代人力。象港口自动化就被工会反对。他们怎么会允许搞电动车，搞自动化生产呢？

Xiaomi just opened a fully automated plant that can turn out 1,000 cars a day. No US company can make an EV with a sticker price under $10,000 like BYD’s Seagull. It’s like the 1980s when Japanese automakers had better technology than Detroit. Forcing the Japanese to build plants here helped the U.S. auto industry get up to speed.

小米刚刚开设了一家全自动工厂，每天可以生产 1000 辆汽车。没有一家美国公司能够像比亚迪的海鸥那样生产标价低于 10,000 美元的电动汽车。就像 20 世纪 80 年代一样，当时日本汽车制造商的技术比底特律更好。迫使日本人在这里建厂帮助美国汽车工业加快了步伐。

Just as we did during the Cold War, we need to harness America’s unique capacity for innovation to renew our industrial base. And if you can guide us there, Mr. President, your second administration will be remembered as a turning point in American history.

正如我们在冷战期间所做的那样，我们需要利用美国独特的创新能力来更新我们的工业基础。总统先生，如果你能引导我们到达那里，你的第二届政府将作为美国历史的转折点被人们铭记。

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点评：想得好，但是难以做到。很多东西都是相关的，数理化不过关，所谓创造就是瞎想。米国的ppt只有中国工程师能实现。而缺乏制造业，教育就不会重视数理化，培养工程师。金融能赚钱，为啥要搞苦哈哈的制造业？河里干工厂的也有吧，真想子女继续进工厂吗？

把自己的绝对竞争对手先干掉，然后自己占据那个生态位

干掉了这个，空叉应该也可以大幅提价了，毕竟恶龙已经被干掉了，勇士慢慢变恶龙，这事有谱

SLS是波音仅剩的太空业务了，除了Starline

这里面有 一堆老旧承包商，都在这里混口饭吃

这事儿做成了，哪怕马斯克其他啥也不干了直接抽身出来，那也是功成身退呀。空叉原来是给星链打工，左手倒右手，那时候可直接是NASA独苗了

就看波音老钱的手腕了，那些敢告波音的小碎催能自杀，马斯克这可是大BOSS了，吃瓜看戏！

新，是褒义，美国需要的。

毛主席曾说过，寄希望于美国人民。美国官员大概属于人民一类。

难道中美之间这段时间不是战？诸多种“战”够凶恶了。

西方战略家的高明是继承了不（热）战而屈人之兵，细化得令人恐怖，够中国学的。

中国早分析出美国搞不战而屈人之兵，皆胜，只是时间上拖得久；而热战，胜负参半，只是美国基本也回过梦，硬要热战得选对象，拉集团，利益最大化，风险须分担。

选的新高官，明白无误地来个先声夺人，造势，心理施压，窃以为讲究。

天机还是莫要多露