主题：【原创】浅谈这次铜价回落的性质 -- 在跋涉

To figure out his strategy, he studies not only price charts, but also the balance sheets and cost structures of the individual industries. The goal: to figure out what price levels might force the industry to take major steps that change the supply-and-demand dynamics, such as adding extra production capacity if prices soar or shutting down some of the current capacity if prices fall.

It is a complex mix of old-fashioned number crunching, probability theory and a measure of luck. To see how it works, consider copper, demand for which is tied closely to the world economic cycle. On average, copper costs about 80 cents a pound to produce; if prices fall below that, production isn't profitable. However, mines won't cease production if the price falls only to, say, 77 cents a pound, because shutdowns entail costs too. It takes a drop to about 72 cents before it makes economic sense to start cutting back.

In late 2001, copper plunged to 60 cents a pound after the Sept. 11 attacks. That gave producers every incentive to cut production. But would they?

"At those price levels, the industry was bleeding. You could expect to see massive closures," Mr. Anderson says. But "nobody wants to be the first to shut down and let others benefit from the reduced supply,"

At that point, Mr. Anderson took a bet and began accumulating a big position in copper on the London Metals Exchange, betting that the prices and the profit margins of major copper producers would bounce back -- and held his breath.

Mr. Anderson kept his eye on the high-cost producers, such as Phelps Dodge Corp., of the U.S. Phelps Dodge was the first to crack, announcing a temporary cutback in production. Then BHP Billiton did the same.

By January 2002, copper bounced to more than 75 cents. Mr. Anderson maintained his position, because he knew the price hadn't yet risen high enough to give producers an incentive to reopen capacity.

Now, though, he is less certain what his next move should be. Mr. Anderson takes out a chart mapping copper prices from 1988, the year he began to be interested in commodities trading. "I have never seen these levels of copper prices in my career," he says. "Everyone is making money at these levels. Everyone wants to reopen old mines and finance new mines. At some point, there will be a surplus and the price will inevitably drop 40% or 50%."

To back up that statement, he compares this decade with the 1950s, the most comparable period he could find, as Japan and Europe rebuilt after World War II. He assumes a rate of growth in the price of copper of 5.1% a year, far more generous than the 2.8% average of the 1990s, to reflect the emergence of India and China on the world economic stage. And he concludes that copper will still shift to surplus sometime in the next two years.

"I can see (a) where we are now, and I can see (c) where we are going," he says. "I just can't be sure of (b) when we get there -- and with how much volatility."