主题：【原创】美国50年来最大的房市泡沫对经济的影响 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 不知道中国的房市有没有这么一天 看现在这架势，挺难。
家园 二月份耐用消费品订单略涨，扣除运输工具类，实际订单下降 [URL=http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=20023b9a-fcc1-4da6-ad1c-6701c9062961&k=38480
]"This is very weak," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi-UFJ in New York. "This is what it looks like when we are going into a recession. I'll be surprised if we don't."[/URL]
Economists polled ahead of the report were expecting overall durable goods orders to advance by 3.5 percent and by 1.6 percent, excluding transportation.
The Commerce Department revised down its figures for January, reporting a 9.3 percent decline in overall durable orders in January, first recorded as a 7.8 percent decrease.
The sharp drop in January durable goods orders reported a month ago helped spark a big sell-off in U.S. equities and raised concerns at the Federal Reserve that business spending might prove weaker than they had expected.
家园 前段时间美国政府修改数据粉饰太平的尾巴 The Commerce Department revised down its figures for January, reporting a 9.3 percent decline in overall durable orders in January, first recorded as a 7.8 percent decrease.先修好，再报告坏消息，一贯伎俩，q4的GDP从3.5%修正到2.2%.
可惜不明就里的小投资人，要给他们害死！
家园 美国政府为什么催生房市泡沫？转贴一个不错的解释 Our current era will be talked about for generations to come. Many will call what is happening to our elderly and poor a crime but few of the Bubble Heads and Marie Antoinettes today even notice. I guess if you travel by darkened windowed big black SUVs/limos or helicopters it is easy to miss all the beggars on the street corners and the homeless sleeping on the streets of our cities and towns. Maybe they are swept from the streets of Washington DC and New York where most of the movers and shakers (the Marie Antoinettes) reside and collaborate.This is America the land of the free and home of the brave. More likely, a bunch of frogs in a kettle over a fire hooked on junk they don’t even have the time to use and enjoy but swimming around in circles all thinking that if they just swim faster they can get away from the heat. They all must think that Nirvana is just around the next corner and they swim faster eating junk food and buying more junk for a second of sweet rush.
It is said that when a crime has been committed it is often about passion or money. This one was about both. The passion for money and the money it takes to fund wars. Interspersed with hyper cronyism and ignorance of economics and we have an era that will go down in history as extremely notable.
Congress and the Administration needed economic growth to support wars (don’t ask which war because there are so many). Tax increases were out of the question (tax cuts had been promised and then delivered to the Faithful as part of the current contract). Bush encouraged people to shop and Greenspan encouraged people to get junk loans all while our manufacturing base was being off shored and our personal rights diminished. In their opinion it was in the best interests of the US. It was really their best interests and to hell with the middle class, the elderly and the poor. The Faithful believe they are blessed and of course that means the middle class and the poor aren’t. I believe history will not treat the Faithful kindly.
The Fed, Japan and China all went along with the necessary low interest rates to get everything cranking by supplying more than adequate liquidity. Each for their own self interest. Again, where was Congress or the President on any of this? Cheerleading us into a hole while funding the most egregious cronyism seen in my life time. All justified by some vague terror supported by marginal elections and a winner take all idealistic form of capitalism or maybe even fascisms. What a great era for the Faithful.
Bank regulators were either asleep at the wheel or told not to look. Only time will tell but more likely the latter. The how and why may never be known.
Because all these junk bonds needed a home and many institutional buyers (especially pension funds) could only buy top rated bonds, rating agencies rated much of this junk AAA. Who was/is there to keep the rating agencies honest? Answer = No One! Oh yea, the market! Haha! Funny!
The government didn’t care as long as the increased tax revenues came rolling in.
The loan packagers with no regulation in most cases were able to sell the loans to a big Wall Street firm with virtually no consequences for the quality. Certainly never a thought to the ramifications or consequences. Besides everyone was doing it and no one seemed concerned about the eventual down side. Maybe tomorrow would never come. The fed will keep the downside risk of affecting the Faithful anyway. So who cares?
The appraisers had to work for the packagers who only wanted quantity. The appraisers fault was not walking away because if they didn’t come up with the justifiable figures their careers were over. The packagers would only use ones that justified and everyone wanted the deals to go thru. At that point it was Nirvana and every body was on a junk high.
The real estate brokers loved the money. Of course they were caught between new buyers who had never before had been able to qualify for a loan (wasn’t that something, walk and chew gum and qualify for a loan. Whoopee! Kids in a candy store with no adults and a pocket full of money!!! ), speculators who for the first time could access easy money for purely speculative ventures and sellers who were hungry for bigger and better houses, to pay off other debts, buy that SUV or to just move. Sure blame the real estate agents. Why not? Some agents even fell for the idea that real estate only goes up and the good times would never end and bought up themselves. Some are now in the same boat with the other Alt-A borrowers with much less income than in 2005.
So the media’s consensus is that it is the poor devils who borrowed all that money to fund a dream sold to them by the highest levels and best psychoanalysts in our great nation are the ones to blame. Or maybe it was the real estate agent or the appraiser… Come on, this pyramid ponzi scheme came from the highest levels of our socio-economic-political system. Instead the media and some of you are loading up on those poor souls who were offered their own home. No more landlords hassling or complaining. People were coned by the highest level of enablers in the mortgage business who also were just doing a job, encouraged by the President and his Fed cronies and Madison Avenue and Wall Street.
None of this was possible before easy money with no oversight.
A lot of people profited.
Now we are into the consequences. You have to repay what you borrow, repudiate it or have it inflated away. For the federal government the only choice is inflation but what I think the Bubble Heads and Marie Antoinettes have forgotten is that 80% of our people are really not doing all that well and inflation is already killing them. It has been for a while now. That is why they are getting poorer in relationship to the wealthy. That is partly why they are starting to default along with other factors including resets and mistakes and accidents. And it will get worse with higher prices for gas, food and medicine. It is just simple math. Not hybrid derivatives or algorithms. Just simple household balance sheet math. Costs go up and wages stay stagnant or down and you go in the hole. Some can figure out how to reduce their overhead but most won’t be able to. There is a point when it all just crashes and for some people we have reached that point. Others are sure to follow. In our current state of affairs, inflation will destroy families and our economy. Will the real compassionate conservatives please stand up! No! It will cost them to much money? Oh! So much for morals and integrity! And should I say Christian Values!
Written by DougS on 2007-03-27 15:16:41
家园 新年后湾区的房子又涨了，不知道什么时候会跌下来 引文中提到工资不涨，这是为什么？既然通货膨胀，工资应该涨上去才对。不太明白。
家园 湾区好区不会怎么跌，其他区跌起来没底 两极分化的结果就是有钱人都集中在某些地区，就跟纽约一样，全世界最富裕的群体都在某些enclave，gated communities，拥有最充裕的当地警察，好学校，优美环境等等，这些地方都不会跌的。
这些地方以外的，跌起来就没底了。如果你要等湾区Portola Valley跌价，可能这辈子都等不到，起码我知道在那里买房的都是现钞买，而且用发财后设立的家族基金买，打算世代相传。要是等East Palo Alto, 一早已经跌了。要是等San Jose大部分地方，两年差不多。要是等Mountain View, Sunnyvale这些地方，那就要等多几年。
本来国内的有钱人在美国买房都集中在南加，现在有点上来湾区的趋势。认识一个老中经纪，说市场上听了好几单国内资金来买房，一个在Los Altos Hills, 另一个在Atherton,都是四、五百万左右的交易，全现金。
家园 怎磨没人来赚这个钱？ east bay城里空地很多,山上就更不用说了，交通还算方便，学校也行，治安不错，就没有开发商敢买地盖condo或者townhouse,便宜点卖.买得起的多着去了.
家园 山上是州政府的永久natural reserve 那个需要更改法例，基本上不可能动。condo更改居住密度，也要原居民投票，好区的居民也是一定投反对票，因为没有一个好区希望有高密度建筑。还不说祖传钉子户，加州prop 13, 祖传的钉子户们，就算市价土地值几千万，地税每年1000元以下的很多，说不挪就不挪，反正他的地税耗得起。
所以你看到的好区土地看着不少，其实一块都不能动，因为钉子户太多，或者居民投票支持低密度不让发展。越是好区越是如此，看着土地好宽裕，其实就是这种宽裕才形成了好区，居民业主们很明白自己的利益所在，就算有宽裕的土地也全部动不了。所以好区的绿化、容积率多年不变，不怎么好的区只能越来越下降，前者正因为多年不变，房子的价格越来越高，后者就会越来越便宜，更加两极化。
家园 把这些人扔到德州去. "加州prop 13, 祖传的钉子户们，就算市价土地值几千万，地税每年1000元以下的很多，说不挪就不挪，反正他的地税耗得起。"
把这些人扔到德州去.一下子就完.赫赫.
"越是好区越是如此，看着土地好宽裕，其实就是这种宽裕才形成了好区，居民业主们很明白自己的利益所在，就算有宽裕的土地也全部动不了。"
这个投票够狠的.这些好区里的地也是私人拥有的吧?也就这样耗着？如果是开发商拥有0.5sqmile的地，先拿出一块0.2sqmile开发，房子都卖完了后，再想开发剩下的0。3sqmile，这些买房的可以投票反对？还是没开发商会这样做。
家园 好区基本上都是老区，老区的土地可以说都一早瓜分了 好区里面准许的容积率很低，所以你就算拿到了土地，也要遵守本来zoning的容积率。不仅如此，某些城市，比如说Palo Alto,拆了老房重盖非常困难，因为城市计划苛刻，重盖就算符合容积率也不能随便加面积，因为要遵守历史风格云云，于是在Palo Alto净土地的价格比上面有个老房子的卖得更贵，因为后者的重盖约束比前者多多了。Steve Jobs在Portola Valley有一栋老房，也不是很老了，拿去中国远远不算历史文物，拆了都没人心疼那种，他想拆了重盖，市政府不准，偏偏说那破房子是历史文物，一定要他保留。
开发商开发的话，都是一整个大片拿准许证，谁都不会一期期那么申请给自己找不自在。而且好区里面一大块相连的土地很难找，都是零星的，所以你看到里面的新房都是很小型的开发商一栋栋起的，那些开发商本身通常就是那块土地的拥有人，肥水不流外人田。
家园 ”老区的土地可以说都一早瓜分了“ 被谁给分了？本地土著？还是斯坦福的教授们？