五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:奇人刘军洛 -- 倥偬飞人

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  • 家园 奇人刘军洛

    前段时间有人提到了刘军洛,出于好奇,在下还搜罗过他的言论和新闻。

    现在他也有了自己的博客。令人佩服的是,早在2000年他就预告了美中之间的经济形势发展趋势。他今天的观点也非常有参考的价值。

    外链出处

    尤其心有戚戚焉的是这句:

    现在小布什准备实施美国最大规模扩充石油储备,况且,这两年美国财政部又把几千亿美元送给了中国央行,你不准备投资黄金,那干什么?

    呵呵,俺倒是投资到位了。

    他提出的次级金本位,和在下鼓吹的实物货币也是相近的概念。

    外链出处

    刘军洛与众不同的一点,就是他对政治经济学的把握,这个在冷战之后被很多人包括一些中国人遗忘了。云云众口之中,寻章摘句的书虫见了不少,居然还有大言不惭黄金过时论的,完全觉察不到美国人乾坤挪移的用心,这种人搞经济投资,顶多是个财富摧毁机器。

    希望中国走出美国人画好的怪圈,不要重蹈日本的覆辙。也希望刘军洛的声音,能够引起当局者的重视。

    至于我等股民嘛,刘军洛的博客,也是股海里一盏明亮的航标灯!

    • 家园 花谢. 早就听说过刘先生的事迹,在这里看到博克地址, 收获不少
    • 家园 黄金的诱惑:stay the course

      点看全图

      外链图片需谨慎,可能会被源头改

      这个走势图是一只加拿大矿业股票,大量的铜、金等储量,八个月5倍的涨幅,原始股也不过如此甚至不如。俺没说的东东,不表示俺没有做,呵呵

      推荐这只股票的news letter主要推荐黄金类矿产股,最新一期的内容透露如下:

      Stay the Course

      “Why is this happening?” is the question I always get as we go through

      one of these slow summer periods.

      When I look at the fundamental picture for gold and silver, I have absolutely

      no worries about the longer term picture and where prices are

      headed. They are going higher; way higher than where gold and silver

      currently trade.

      The accelerating evidence for this is so obvious to me that I wonder

      how other intelligent people cannot understand where this will all lead.

      Just a few of the many glaring warning signs that stick out to me lately

      are the following:

      • The national debt of the U.S. as of June, 2007 is $8.85 trillion

      and growing at an alarming rate of $1.38 billion a day

      • The number of homes entering foreclosure in the U.S. will easily

      top one million in 2007 and continue to rise in 2008

      • The U.S. real estate market is headed for trouble

      • Consumer confidence is clearly falling

      • The U.S.Dollar is falling against other currencies despite the

      continued attempts to prop it up. The latest currency to rise

      against the dollar is the yen

      That being said the shorter term scenarios are much more difficult to

      predict and often cause considerable anxiety for investors when gold,

      silver, and the mining shares have a sell-off as we are currently experiencing

      in the market.

      Regardless of what you hear from the talking heads in Washington and elsewhere, I believe we are fast

      approaching the point where gold is going to breakout. The powers that be, who understand this, are in my

      opinion clearly trying to keep gold under the $700 an ounce level. Central banks who are desperately trying

      to keep the whole fiat currency game together simply cannot allow gold to cross that benchmark because

      of the attention it will draw from a much larger audience of investors not just in the U.S. but worldwide. The

      exodus from the dollar is looming. This is the reason why we are seeing the massive amount of gold that

      has recently been dumped on the market by central banks. The inflexion point when dollars start to really

      fly towards gold for protection is soon at hand in my opinion. Don’t be shaken out by any of this. Yes, we

      could see further downside, but my mantra remains “STAY THE COURSE! DO NOT BE SWINDLED OUT

      OF YOUR METALS POSITIONS BY THE SWINE THAT DESIRE YOUR DEMISE”

      Look at this time as the moment when you should be adding to positions, not selling. Be patient and let the

      rising trend work its magic. All you need to do is play the waiting game. Don’t let this bull shake you off. It

      desires your submission but the big gains will go to those who hold their positions and stay the course.

      这里给大家一个对黄金市场近况的分析,俺就不必费力气了。

      --- 具体的个股,俺就略去不提了,别砸砖,俺躲!

    • 家园 葡萄兄来发表发表看法?

      按刘军洛的说法,似乎把葡萄说的点明白了一点儿,但还是说的不够明白。不过葡萄认为我们是在积极准备这场金融战争的,但刘却认为当朝被主流经济学家观点所把握,对金融战争非常的不乐观。不过有一点可以推测出来的是,刘现在没有得到重视。

      • 家园 说几句不是看法的观点:

        del

        • 家园 续(完)

          del

          • 家园 前提不成立或者已经变化?

            中国随着美圆扩张所汲取的利益远远超过我们的支付的代价

            如果说过去30年来,总体上讲中国获得了更多的利益,也许说的过去。

            但是时移势易,如今有必要审视和仔细考虑是否真的还是这样。近几年实际上是美元储备扩张,购买力不增加甚至下降,而国内消费仍然止步于高速通货膨胀,教育、住房和医疗就是明证,更不用提为了给美国消费者提供廉价产品,对中国环境造成了多大的污染,消耗了多少不可再生资源???对大多数中国人而言,生活质量是在提高,还是在下降?

            仅仅用黄金作为货币基石当然是不够的,但是加入其它资源类商品则是非常合理的,称之为次级金本位也好,实物货币也好,都是这个概念。美国人滥印货币是脱离了经济学的good faith,为什么要跟着他们走到黑?连日本人都不想跟了,中国就更没有必要当这个冤大头。

            • 家园 问题是这样

              del


              本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
              • 家园 葡萄兄才华横溢,下笔千言

                俺回头慢慢看,需要小心对付,呵呵

              • 家园 不明白老美为什么也需要开发非洲

                就是美国出钱出技术中国出动人力资源和物资援助.曾经和人计算过,全面在非洲铺开基础设施建设的话算上通涨因素,到商业回报阶段需要至少2万亿美圆.

                不明白老美为什么也需要开发非洲,扩大美圆的容量?非洲那么落后,再发展得快也吸纳不了多少美圆呀!

                为了控制非洲?那更不能放中国进来呀。为了资源?我看美国不着急,着急的是中国。

                中国在非洲重点开发与援助的国家基本都是英国前殖民地国家,唯一一个不是英国前殖民地国家的莫桑比克也是英联邦里唯一一个不是前英国殖民地的成员.英国前首相那句自诩:我永远改变了英国.

                难道我们开发在前,英国牟利在后?英国靠什么牟利呢?

              • 家园 上花!

                欧洲的悲哀是象希拉克这样的政治家看到了,但是做不到,因为欧洲人民是山羊,而美国人民是绵羊。前一阵子西班牙还有法国不是要修建地中海隧道嘛,怎么最近没动静了?

          • 家园 麻木了--

            最近双宝得的真多~~

            恭喜:意外获得【西西河通宝】一枚

            谢谢:作者意外获得【西西河通宝】一枚

            鲜花已经成功送出。

            此次送花为【有效送花赞扬,涨乐善、声望】

        • 家园 花 等 葡萄兄认为黄金延期交易怎么样? 好像7月就要全面开放了
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