主题：欧洲将死,G-2当立! 立此存照 -- parishg
- 复 没那么简单
家园 嗯，还要看事情的后续发展。 继续观察吧。
欧洲是当今棋盘上面的四个棋手之一。倒掉一家，对世界格局冲击过大，中、俄不会袖手旁观。——这是外界的因素。需要考虑进去。
所以局势到底如何发展，还要观察。
而当年的东南亚没有这个地位，只是棋子而已。
- 复 没那么简单
家园 in terms of public administration, today's Greece is just a third-world country. It is a democratic parliamentary nation--people will not swallow the harsh fiscal policy easily. If they swallow, the current gov. will not be stable too.
Same problem in Spain and Portugal.
By pushing up national bonds yields of both Portugal and Greeks, Anglo-American vulture funds are slowly destablizing these countries' credit market as well as social order.
Germans are fighting back now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=ajfpD1.Sa8GM
I read the Economist article before. Let time decides whether my predictions are right or not. When it comes to war and financial warfare, Germans are no match to their Anglo-Saxon brothers.
This fight will last for a while.
家园 中国的机会在哪里？ 或者中国该怎么预案？ 不吝赐教，多谢。
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times; it ws the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness; it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity; it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness; it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair; we had everything before us, we had nothing before us; we were all going directly to Heaven, we were all going the other way.
----Charles Dickens
家园 Wait 1.Control or reduce the percentage of reserve assets in Euro--Euro is not a stable reserve of purchasing power. USD is not much better, but at least USA is an integrated nation.
In the long run, China should increase the percentage of reserve assets in physical gold or store commodities for future use. USD is 100% sure to depreciate against all commodities in the future. It is possible that USD-based global financial system will have a more serious shock in the next 5-7 years.
2.Whenever possible, push Euroland to choose the option of breaking-up, including providing financial incentives. Encourage their internal disagreements and fight.
3.Treat different European nations discriminately--favor certain nations over their exports and help them to create more jobs--so that they will sponsor favorable policies towards China inside EU.
Since major policy change need 100% support inside EU, your purpose is not to ensure that you can really get best result for china--you just want to ensure that EU INSTITUTIONs can not function NORMALLY at all.
4.Use propaganda machine to depict some European nations in bright ways and some others in bad ways. Damage certain nations' financial reputation.
5.Establish bilateral trade agreements and ask for more market opening in certain nations in exchange for the purchase of their government bonds--also ask those nations to grant VISA-FREE TREATMENT TO CHINESE businessmen and tourists. The Chinese passport has been really travel-unfriendly due to those national restrictions. Given that Greeks are not much richer than chinese at all, it is time to DEMAND FOR BETTER TREATMENT FOR CHINESE NOW IN THOSE NATIONS.
In sum: gov. bonds for real and visible benefits.
In the long run, a more consolidated EU is never in China's or America's best interests. EU made the trade policy a federal level decision in 1970s, which dramatically increased EU's leverage against America/China in WTO negotiation. Now all major American M&As must be approved by EU at the same time--unbelievable in 1950s/1960s when America only needed to deal with 15 different nations.
US gov. only wanted a diplomatically unified EU in the past: one voice from its geopolitical allies in Europe. Economic integration and market barriers against Americans are never its targets.
A divided EU will reduce each nation's economic leverage against China. EU nations still have not pooled their voting rights in IMF and World Bank. If they achieve that, that will be US and China's nightmare.
Currently, PIGs(Ireland excluded) nations are creating more divisions within EU. UK is stabbing EU in the back at any moment. Euroland, even passing this current crisis, could not stick together under another Lehman-scale crisis.
Just wait for opportunities to strike the coup d'grace--mostly through the financial market. All PIGs have chronical fiscal problems (Greece/Italy both faked fiscal data to cheat into Euro) and their strong unions ensure that nothing can be done through reform--no politician dares to reform too. Their national debt/GDP ratio will jump quickly in the next 3 years--faster than that in America. If they still hold the same currency as Germany does, their national economies will be in constant stagflation for the next 10 years.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eeef5996-0532-11df-a85e-00144feabdc0.html
strongly recommended
When Europe fell into fiscal crisis, you can start to buy their technology/talents at cheaper price---exactly what China did against Russia/Ukraine after 1990.
家园 大胖子沙发