主题：【原创】经济学的客观预测与社会的主观预期 -- MRandson
家园 but he is right Any person who understand global finance should be pessimistic, because the current system is Windows XP1--with too many fatal bugs. Those bugs make the system internally vulnerable and unstable. What we saw between 1971-2008 are all temporary fixes and the total system collapse will come at a future date.
Any nation whose currency is used as global reserve currency will suffer from disguised curse--industry hollow out, conflict between financial and industry policies and final collapse.
Britain collapsed fast due to two world wars, the American empire is slowly eaten away by this dilemma. Several Fed Reserve board members complain about the constraint on domestic policy due to the USD reserve currency status. All top smart people know it is a time bomb.
As Alan Greenspan said: enjoy it as long as it lasts.
In the movie Matrix, one guy asked Oracle: how long will peace last. Oracle said: as long as it can last (=as long as the current Windows XP can last...)
家园 本来也没有完美的制度。 所谓的繁荣，所谓的发展，说到底，都是某种因素在某个时段发挥主要影响造成的，未来必定会为此付出对价，差别在于，有的个体只享受成果，有的个体，仅支付对价。有生有死，有成有坏。
家园 报告分两种，内部与外部 据我所知，有人知道，而且很早就知道，只是不愿意公开。
那意味着获利机会的丧失。
家园 你是聪明 ren The list of professors who warned against the real estate bubble is quite long. People who did not stay in States or did not read the English professional media of course are totally clueless. EIU first warned about the GLOBAL (American bubble is smaller than those in UK and Eastern Europe and China) housing bubble in March 2006.
Treasury Secretary Paulson warned Bush Jr. about the risk of credit derivatives when they first met in 2006 (exposed in media in 2008); Tim Geithner, the then-Fed-NY president and current treasury secretary, wanted to control the explosive growth of over the counter derivative market in 2004 and was pushed aside by more powerful tycoons.
Wall Street knew the risk, but they were blinded by their greed. Regulators knew the problems, but there were no enough political will/consensus to change it. Only crisis can move America.
Chinese elites way underestimated the strength/info advantage/smartness of their American counterparties.
While, Europeans are the same-- I remember in August 2008, German/French finance ministers still celebrated the forthcoming collapse of the American dollar empire and strong growth in Euroland, the collapse of Lehman ended that party abruptly and almost crushed the whole Euro-dollar market (NOT exchange market, it is the overseas dollar market in Europe) and then the European financial system.
The pretty and smart French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, is right: Lehman collapse is totally unnecessary or possibly a conspiracy. While, it is necessary because it is the best way to bring Europe and Asia together into recession and expose the sovereign fiscal problems of Euroland.
Now let's wait and see who has the last breath, Dollarland or Euroland. Asians should step aside and wait to prey on the weaker loser. Actually, by holding majority of reserves in dollar, Asians do pick side alread in this life-and-death fight.
China and Japan have stronger financial system now to withstand financial hit, because the former does not allow free capital flow and the latter learned a hard lesson in the last 20 years.
家园 美元的地位绝不是靠主观情绪支撑的 主观情绪也是一种客观存在。不过，在短期内对市场有有效的影响，长期看是无效的。信心比金子重要，没有金子不会有信心。短期模型中，应该有情绪这个参数，没有就是不客观。长期模型中，不应该有情绪这个参数，有了也是不客观。
此外，现在许多人小看了美元，如同当年日本人小看美元一样。
家园 但美元地位主要的支撑也不再是客观的物质基础 信心本身是一个intersubjective的东西
家园 恭喜：你意外获得【通宝】一枚 恭喜：你意外获得【通宝】一枚
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家园 当然了，美元主要是靠强权政治来维持的 没有美国全球军事投射能力强制国际金融规则，美元是无法维持一个年代的双赤字的。
预测模型难以准确的原因之一，就是国际经济运行是被强权政治扭曲的经济运行，模型没有考虑这些因素，就会被“突发”事件推翻。而这些“突发”事件，是在美国军事能力控制下发生的。
而舆论误导是与美国军事力量相配合的“巧实力”构成资源之一。低估美元的人往往从纯经济观点来考虑，没有考虑美国使用军队发动战争的意愿与实力。
家园 del del
家园 dang在地产这事处理的太失败了，造就了一大堆的房奴和剩 男剩女，负面影响是深远的。
这么容易就被开发商绑架了吗？背后又有地方财政的问题。
地方融资平台，中国式的次贷。。。。
房价只能涨不能跌，经济也只能往前不能停下来，否则，真不敢想了。。。。