主题：【讨论】Tg外交决策的特点：利益优先，实事求是 -- wqnsihs
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家园 核污染到这个程度了？ 马上要回东京北部50公里的城市了，还求葡萄提供更多信息。
家园 国际原子能机构今天在40公里处的一个村庄测量到2倍于强制 撤离标准的辐射量
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12916688
家园 犯不着
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家园 南下么 北上应该不会，只能南下了
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家园 有葡大发贴就开心，献花 - 复 ...
家园 这就是说，关东地区基本完蛋？ 丢了关东，大概可以说丢了半个日本吧，如果属实，等于日本右臂折断，这对于日本和世界都是历史性的大事啊。由此引发的连锁反应那是刚刚的。要布局的趁早了。
这个要是成真，东电公司可以名垂青史了。
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家园 又见葡萄帖，太高兴了！！ - 复 ...
家园 那么说80年代买了东京房子的房奴们再也没有机会解套啦 惨，真惨呐
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家园 迁到阿特兰蒂斯算啦
家园 That makes sense, but what I mean is that there are 3 kinds of mistakes:
1. they intentionally mislead political leader as in "Pig Bay".
2. they make mistakes themselves.There are lots of such wrong forecast in the history. Intelligence are a part of the low-efficiency government.
3. they were forced to make mistakes like in 2nd Iraq war.
It is hard to say which is the major reason, I choose no.2.I don't believe there is any power can control everything, at most something important sometimes.
家园 friend, you are so nice I am sure you must be a very decent gentlemen.
BTW, I can never document academically solid evidence to convince you-- it does not exist. If it exists, anybody who knows it will be eliminated.
JFK has detected systematic misleading behavior among his subordinates. Before he could take any action to lower military action in Vietnam, he was "replaced" by Johnson.
It is commonly known secret that military-intelligence complex assassinated JFK.
Johnson listened to the so-called "wise men" and escalated Vietnam war. He even faked the attack by the North Vietnam in order to win authorization from the Congress--that's widely known fact by now. And it was documented by History Channel.
When the Vietnam war spilled into a war without end, the same group of "wise men" told the president Johnson that the Vietnam War could not be won from the beginning--again, watch the history channel on LBJ.
LBJ was tricked by those so-called "wise men".
Do you really think the military establishment are 人畜无害 小白兔? The same thing existed among Chinese PLA, Russian military-intelligence complex...
家园 Nice talk I am also a history fan and I noticed these facts.I can't agree more with your opinion,which is a group of wise men( in this case, they are military-intelligence)intentionally lead the leader and people they are supposed to serve to a wrong way for their own interest.This kind of things repeated in history in different time,culture and country.
My original post only meant I don't think the "wise men" are that literally wise, they made mistakes some time.To the issue happened in 1991,I tend to believe that the Chinese Communist Party members of the intelligence prefered the rebellion rather than Russian President叶利钦.This bias made them wrong.People are rarely aware of the bias in their deep mind.
But what you mean can also explain it well:military forces were in hard time and that enemy-state was their chance to survive.
Nice talk to you!
家园 "Mother", a real genius