五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:棉花总产量下降的稻草。 -- njyd

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  • 家园 棉花总产量下降的稻草。

    某些人为了反转基因,什么稻草都能捞。比如有一个帖子,说中国棉花总产量连年下降是因为种了转基因棉的原因。

      从产量上看连年下降,看起来说的不错,但实际原因呢?

      找到这么个报道:中国棉花告急

      里面有这么一段:

      业内研究人士表示,1984年前后,全国棉花种植面积一度达到1.2亿亩,这几年棉花种植面积逐年减少,现在减至7500万亩左右。国家统计局数据显示,2007年全国全年棉花产量760万吨,2008年全年棉花产量减至750万吨,2009年进一步减至640万吨;从棉花种植面积来看,根据中国棉花协会的数据,2007~2009年,全国棉花种植面积依次为8889.15万亩、8631.15万亩、7425万亩,2009年棉花种植面积与2007年相比,减少1400万亩以上。研究人士表示,棉花种植面积在8000万亩以上才算是处于安全区范围以内。

      棉花总产量下降是不错,但看看种植面积:09年全国棉花种植面积7425万亩,是07年的84%,棉花总产量640万吨是07年的84%,面积比是四舍五入得来的,实际是83.5%,这个比值比产量还低一些。

      算一下平均单产:07年是85.5公斤,09年是86.2公斤,还稍有上升。

      崩盘了吗?

     

    通宝推:黑岛人,Climb,★★★,

    本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)
    • 家园 再顶起来,看看有的人脸皮能有多厚

      转基因棉花的十字路口 2011-05-21 01:44:04

      1996年开始引进的转基因棉花技术,是比较成功的转基因作物。2007年达到巅峰状态。到2011年15年过去了。但是问题越来越严重。

      ……

      棉花领域问题是什么?

      棉花领域的问题,表现为中国的常量连续下降。

      ……

      被主贴揭发其实国内棉花总产下降的真实原因是棉花种植面积下降。

      于是马上改口声称是因为转基因棉忽视了次要虫害的应对,导致国内棉花业目前遇到的新困难。

      转基因棉的确可能成为最后一根稻草 2011-05-23 02:10:10

      http://www.here4news.com/article/3435180

      【原创】转派在转基因棉上的一误再误2011-05-24 14:11:07

      http://www.here4news.com/article/3436982

      其实到了这步,已经非常简单的逻辑问题了。既然这些(贴主和跟着后面迎合的)反转派们坚持认为是转基因棉导致了所有问题,甚至不用问当年的棉铃虫害应该怎么解决。就说现在的蝽蟓虫害,非转基因棉种又不是已经消失殆尽了,为啥农民们不改种非转基因棉呢?

      原因也很简单:因为非转基因棉一样怕蝽蟓。结果这位反转派给转基因科学家和推广者定下的新罪名居然是:国内技术界还没有搞出能同时应对棉铃虫和蝽蟓的新转基因棉!

      最后要说明一下现有的转基因棉品种是不是真如他们所说的那样“劣种化”了、“没落”了。

      2010年,美国转基因棉是扩大面积最多的转基因作物,种植面积增加了25%,约1000万英亩,在全国棉花种植面积中的比例,从2009年的88%提高到了93%

    • 家园 这段话怎么没一块引过来?

      基因抗虫棉刚普及时,每亩最多能收360公斤棉花,现在一般亩产在250~300公斤。吕砚虎说,种小麦、玉米还省心,不需要频繁打农药,转基因棉花一开始需要打农药的次数也比较少,但现在害虫对转基因棉花逐渐适应产生抗性,虽然转基因抗虫棉抑制了棉铃虫,但另一种害虫盲蝽象对棉花的危害越来越大。河南省农业科学院植保专家封洪强介绍,在盲蝽象危害比较严重的地方,农民现在一年也要打上十几次农药才能防得住,棉农的农药投入越来越大。不过,封洪强也表示,目前盲蝽象仍然处于可控制状态,农民希望新的转基因棉花在原来抗棉铃虫基础上也能够抗盲蝽象等害虫。

      在加一个链接《转基因棉悲喜剧:中国棉花财富恐重蹈大豆覆辙 》外链出处

      转基因是否会导致农药用量加大?产生抗药性极强的虫子,破坏生态?

      • 家园 看完引文,合理的结论就是转基因棉要大干快上嘛

        种传统棉花,遇到的虫害是棉铃虫,而且原来对付棉铃虫的除虫菊类农药由于滥用,效果已经很差了;

        于是被迫种二代转基因棉,就是能防棉铃虫的棉花,但是这种棉花对付不了棉椿象,还要打防椿象的农药;

        然后,蒙山都就搞出了三代转基因棉,连椿象都一起收拾了。

        这不正好说明棉农要靠转基因才有出路么,不转基因,就要大把的花钱打农药,,结果反而成本更高。

        中国自己不搞转基因棉的话,重蹈转基因大豆的覆辙是一定的。转基因大豆就是产量高,出油率高,你说榨油企业不买转基因大豆,难道还买价格高、出油率低的传统大豆不成?不转基因就没有这些先进的生物性状;连转基因大豆都不种的话,最后只有把市场给让出来。

        转基因是人类在生物方面改造自然能力的一次飞跃,50年之内,去除全部可能遗传疾病的超级婴儿就会诞生了,这不是光抱残守缺就能改变的大趋势了。

        • 家园 转基因婴儿不会出现

          制造转基因婴儿意味着克隆人,同时意味着产生大量死婴。我不认为哪个科学家的神经强大到这种地步。

        • 家园 年复一年的新种子,新抗虫基因,真以为人类这么强大?

          有一天出来个哪种抗虫基因都不鸟的虫子呢?

          • 家园 人类社会不变得更加强大就只有迅速灭亡

            真以为人类这么强大?
            1

          • 家园 年复一年的新农药,新杀虫剂,真以为人类这么强大?

            可以继续往下排比

            • 家园 人类犯了很多错误,有嘛不好承认的?

              滥用杀虫剂、滥用抗生素,希望以后不要滥用转基因,但很可能的,人类还是会滥用转基因。

              • 家园 我们就是在错误中前进,那又如何?

                如果什么错误都不犯的话人类就应该回到猩猩社会。

                工业化带来的杀虫剂、化肥大幅度提高了粮食产量但是污染环境,你如果觉得这是人类的错误的话人类人口规模首先应该倒退到19世纪(不到20亿)

                农业本身破坏森林和草原,导致物种单一,加速土地沙化。这是人类的错误,人类应该停止农耕畜牧,返回到渔猎时代。

                人类生火取暖可能造成森林火灾,这也是人类的错误,人类应该从原始社会退回到猩猩的程度。

                • 家园 关键词:DDT,另外走极端不是河里应有的水平,

                  无事烧纸:人又不是死的,不然不会去搞环境保护,老这么极端干嘛?

                  • 家园 不要拿河里水平什么的大帽子来吓唬人

                    关于转基因的论战的存在本身就显示了这个论坛成员的知识水平有限。你觉得我的观点不对就说我极端,那么好吧,我说的哪点不符合事实?反倒是DDT的使用作为人类的一个错误的说法本身是可疑的,禁止DDT的使用本身可能是一个走极端的错误。

                    Criticism of restrictions on DDT use

                    Critics claim that restricting DDT in vector control have caused unnecessary deaths due to malaria. Estimates range from hundreds of thousands,[111] to millions. Robert Gwadz of the National Institutes of Health said in 2007, "The ban on DDT may have killed 20 million children."[112] These arguments have been dismissed as "outrageous" by former WHO scientist Socrates Litsios. May Berenbaum, University of Illinois entomologist, says, "to blame environmentalists who oppose DDT for more deaths than Hitler is worse than irresponsible."[83] Investigative journalist Adam Sarvana and others characterize this notion as a "myth" promoted principally by Roger Bate of the pro-DDT advocacy group Africa Fighting Malaria (AFM).[113][114]

                    Criticisms of a DDT "ban" often specifically reference the 1972 US ban (with the erroneous implication that this constituted a worldwide ban and prohibited use of DDT in vector control). Reference is often made to Rachel Carson's Silent Spring even though she never pushed for a ban on DDT. John Quiggin and Tim Lambert wrote, "the most striking feature of the claim against Carson is the ease with which it can be refuted."[115] Carson actually devoted a page of her book to considering the relationship between DDT and malaria, warning of the evolution of DDT resistance in mosquitoes and concluding:

                    It is more sensible in some cases to take a small amount of damage in preference to having none for a time but paying for it in the long run by losing the very means of fighting [is the advice given in Holland by Dr Briejer in his capacity as director of the Plant Protection Service]. Practical advice should be "Spray as little as you possibly can" rather than "Spray to the limit of your capacity."

                    It has also been alleged that donor governments and agencies have refused to fund DDT spraying, or made aid contingent upon not using DDT. According to a report in the British Medical Journal, use of DDT in Mozambique "was stopped several decades ago, because 80% of the country's health budget came from donor funds, and donors refused to allow the use of DDT."[116] Roger Bate asserts, "many countries have been coming under pressure from international health and environment agencies to give up DDT or face losing aid grants: Belize and Bolivia are on record admitting they gave in to pressure on this issue from [USAID]."[117]

                    The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been the focus of much criticism. While the agency is currently funding the use of DDT in some African countries,[118] in the past it did not. When John Stossel accused USAID of not funding DDT because it wasn't "politically correct," Anne Peterson, the agency's assistant administrator for global health, replied that "I believe that the strategies we are using are as effective as spraying with DDT ... So, politically correct or not, I am very confident that what we are doing is the right strategy."[119] USAID's Kent R. Hill states that the agency has been misrepresented: "USAID strongly supports spraying as a preventative measure for malaria and will support the use of DDT when it is scientifically sound and warranted."[120] The Agency's website states that "USAID has never had a 'policy' as such either 'for' or 'against' DDT for IRS. The real change in the past two years [2006/07] has been a new interest and emphasis on the use of IRS in general—with DDT or any other insecticide—as an effective malaria prevention strategy in tropical Africa."[118] The website further explains that in many cases alternative malaria control measures were judged to be more cost-effective that DDT spraying, and so were funded instead.[121]

              • 家园 人类科技进步,本来就是如此,照您这样说,大家都回到原始社

                会好了,你愿意么?

                汽车,石化,火车,飞机,化工,电子技术的生产,哪个完全有利无害的?求一个,一个就行

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