主题：【原创】连续4天每天4、5%的涨跌后，是不是有了苗头 -- 铁手
家园 受教了，花。可是T-NOTE对我不现实。 你说的有道理。可是我的401K里，non-equity fund只有stable value 和 TIPS index两种，没有中长期T-Note，但好像5年的TIPS yield已经是负数，所以我最近也将TIPS比例调低。
你的想法与我不谋而合，我是宁可错过，不可做错，不求大涨，但求尽量避开大跌。近期看来只好采取观望策略。
我自认没有本事预测市场，所以不浪费时间去猜测底在哪里，因为真正的底部到了，市场不会在那里停留太久，肯定快速反弹，绝大多数人是抓不住的。
宏观上，我觉得市场里的钱最终无处可去，大部分还是只能回到股市。个人中长期比较看好emerging market和REITS,看来我还是慢慢小口吃进，只是要更加放慢脚步。
家园 who will benefit from it? If EUR collapses, it will benefit USD and GOLD, my guess.
家园 I suppose you are much riche richer in the last one month since you have bought up gold.
As to who benefits, I guess you are already one of them ^v^.
Relax and do not rush to be a "Da Qi Pi" or conspiracy-speculator. The most important thing in the world is to protect YOURSELF AND YOUR family in times of crisis.
As to the big framework, there are highly-paid politicians and big bank CEOs who are paid to take care of the system. Do not listen to their bullshit, because they are already in a big mess and they will lie to the general public at any moment.
家园 yeah, I had learned how to tell the real intention of these propaganda. It is a turbulent river right now, without protections and cautions, I saw many being drown in a second. As you mentioned, "protection ourselves" is the most important thing,
另外, 因为最近一段时间自己的结论很多是against大多数人的思路的，所以是有压力的，怀疑自己研究有没有思考周全啦。现在我是希望能够谨慎再谨慎的,而河里能够进行这方面有益探讨的，算上老兄，不超过3个人而已。
and I will take your advice to relax，when the gold market proves that I am right for the rest of the year :)
还有"Da Qi Pi"什么意思，汉语拼音拼了半天， = 大棋皮？
家园 大棋派 they are very active on this forum. You should know that. You will be amazed how much time they have spent by putting various long and long speculative pieces about "China's final victory" on this forum.
家园 现在看来，不确定大概会持续一段时间 黄金继续上涨，美国国债也继续上涨。30年期有点象08年的走势。恐惧心理还是很明显。
家园 only the beginning.
家园 地球村之中，没谁能独善其身 现在欧盟，美国，中国不是比较谁经济更好，是在比谁更烂，比谁更能撑
比民众忍耐力的话，我还是很看好中国的
家园 you are asking an empirical question and nobody has crystal ball to answer it.
比民众忍耐力的话，我还是很看好中国的
--hahaha. Thumbs up. I know you might have no access to some news about local social unrest back in China since news is well-controlled.
I am 100% sure Europe is the first domino to fall. No matter what happens, the most important thing in investment world: hedge your portfolio. DO NOT BE OVERCONFIDENT.
家园 在经济上100%sure的事情你觉得靠谱吗？ 地中海和美元是直接交锋，什么IMF性丑闻都和这个交锋有关系。
欧盟和美元是相互揭短的，我承认现在欧盟看起来差的多，但美国也没好到哪里去，相互揭重量级的短，就看哪方各方面准备充分了之后先出手了。欧盟先被爆料先烂掉是大比例事件，但你不能说100% sure 美元就不能倒在欧元前面。
至于国内的新闻封锁，大概你好久没回过国了。
绝大部分新闻会及时报导，没报道的，网络上也找的到。
我不是对中国的经济有信心，而是三家比烂的前提下，对中国国家背书的官办经济更有信心，对国人能承受的忍耐强度更有信心。
家园 这可说不好 欧洲最烂大概是没问题的，但是中美很难说谁更好。
美国胜在有经验，有主动权，有砝码。
中国也就忍耐力大概好些。银行坏账啥的，由于不透明，真不敢说好过人家多少。只能说这轮不死已经是胜利了。
家园 you are too emotional I am talking about technical issues facing the banking system in Europe. If you read my posts carefully on "wrong focus". I have pointed out all the key issues in today's Europe.
America has recapitalized its key banks, therefore, it will only suffer some collateral damage from this forthcoming hit in Europe.
Let's avoid each other.
家园 欧洲的问题是被釜底抽薪了 所有的欧洲银行都处于破产边缘，而它们的政府也没有能力去挽救这些银行。
美国银行实际上很健康（至少按照我们现在健康的标准）。你去比较一下美国银行和欧洲银行的资本充足率，那一个是在天上，一个在地下。
家园 国有化，或者欧盟化的好时机啊 这么干，老美又白忙活了。
德国人两年前就做好立法准备了。法国人也不是没经验。