主题：【原创】连续4天每天4、5%的涨跌后，是不是有了苗头 -- 铁手
家园 我是短期看涨，长期严重看空的悲观者 说明一下，标题里面的短期和长期，指代的时间跨度是比较长的，不是经常所说的一周或者一个月
1，欧洲都不准卖空银行股了，这是短期利好，长期利空，说明信心在崩溃。经历过08危机的同学们，想必都知道经济危机现金为王，刚刚经历过的痛很难忘记，将心比心一把，大多数人这样想的话，网络中股市就一定会跌，现实中因为看跌，能买能不买的东西就不买，然后各行各业库存和交易会锐减，最终引发通缩
2，拉高才可能出货，每天跌个5%，没有大资金能跑的出来，想要出来必须拉高，要拉高就需要新闻媒体的配合，什么失业率啊，消费啊，反正媒体狂吼世界经济一切欣欣向荣，涨个30%~40%，赚钱效应下，无数人冲进股市，然后大资金开始出货，走上一条跌的看不到底的路
综上，毫无根据的预测一下：8月涨跌互现，以跌为主；3~5个月内以涨为主，今年圣诞节到明年春节左右爆发大面积突发负面新闻，单边暴跌开始，明年6月左右媒体承认出现通缩苗头，然后就是世界性的大萧条。
家园 为什么大家这么悲观呢？ 不大赞同朋友的意见。
大金融机构拉高出货了后面又怎么样么？他们能把钱放哪里去？池子就这几个，钱出来就相当于他们歇业停工不干活了，一周一月可以，能把钱锁起来大家放半年假吗？
目前欧洲确实问题很多，但远远没有大家想象的这么严重。为什么英美唱衰欧洲的声音最近这么强呢？实际上他们的衰落的程度比欧洲大陆的核心国家法德等要严重得多。欧洲虽然高负债但是人家社会福利很好，老百姓实惠。相反美国欠一股债只是帮军火石油商赚钱而老百姓除了自我感觉很好外并无多少好处。这一次说不定还是一次帮助欧洲向‘准联邦’迈进的好机会呢。
美国对欧洲的攻击也是连打带吓。弄死欧洲自己也是半残废了，中俄得益最大。所以对美来说最好就是欧美一心砍倒中国血洗新兴国家。小心啊小心呵呵。
目前全球多极趋势越来越明显，英美失势后最获利的是欧洲大陆然后才是中国。
家园 美元和欧元是不兼容的 欧元如果取代美元成为世界结算货币，储备货币，美国的负债经济模式就只有退出历史舞台。美国经济出了问题，军力就只能收缩，美国军力收缩，很多美国支持或者制裁的国家就会内乱，甚至外战。然后世界就乱象一片。
我看空的理由之一，是花花革命的国家基本上都有很强的通货膨胀（大概20%），而08年经济危机，所有的国家都增发，使用积极的货币政策来刺激经济。比如中国的4万亿，记得当时网上是赞美声音一片，到了现在，仅仅是温和的通货膨胀，就已经是骂声一片。
再来一次经济危机的话，由于担忧未来的通货膨胀和未来维稳的考虑，相信大多数国家不会再一次执行积极的货币政策，或者只对特定领域进行保护，这样的结果，就容易引发通缩。
至于大资金，卖空一样是可以赚钱的啊，完全不会歇业。先拉高，然后做空头，一路跌下来一路赚，跌的妈妈都不认识，抄底的人全部套之后，再转头做多头，继续赚钱。
家园 对啊，散户也可以做空的。哈哈，下周估计就可以进场做空了。 反正这段时间上下震荡着，那就正反做几次吧。
家园 wrong focus 1. the whole US debt limit farce is a waste of media eyeballs. Market fall due to US political fight is actually limited. The main driver of this round of crisis is European sovereign bond.
2. Sovereign bond problems spreads into Italy. Panic depositors are shifting money from Italy/Spain into Switzerland, gold and other AAA bonds. Repo market for banks has frozen and it is going to hit banking system first, then the real economy (lots of firms).
Most fall comes from Europe first, then hitting Asia and America. Of course, US fundamentals are deteriorating, but European markets fell much more than the American market.
Canadian market outperforms almost all G7 peers with smaller decline this time. The safest nation among all G7 now.
3.Next stage of crisis will depend on the actions from European nations. Trivial events, such as an impasse after Germany-France meeting, or French credit rating downgrade or a bank run in Europe can easily spill into the 2nd stage crisis.
Stock short-ban could face-lift equity market price, but it could NOT rescue lost confidence in PIIGs gov. bonds, their bankings system, the ST lending market, the ST shadow banking market in Euroland...
Good luck to Europe for the next 2 weeks!
BTW, a deepening Eastern European banking crisis is just around the corner...
通宝推：李根,家园 事实上禁止做空只会带来更大的恐慌 家园 先看下周二法德会晤会有没有新的措施提出来。 家园 Canadian market outperformed her peer group due to stronger gold price and fiscal balance sheet. For counties with the least “stimulus plan” or money dilution, their currencies will outperform USD, Yen and Pond for the time period.
However, GDP growth of countries like Canada, Australia and Norway greatly depends on commodity price. With a sharp fall of all commodities in the near and intermediate term, the heavy health care and social welfare burden will eventually cause fiscal deficits and downgrade of their sovereign bond rating.
The magnitude of this market fall calls for an Exit plan
.- 复 Canadian
家园 fully agree. Canadian economy depends heavily on export. Actually, its biggest threat will be a fast-slowing Chinese economy and a global economic contraction.
In the long run, Canadian economy will not be immune from Euroland collapse. That's why I will pray for a slow death of Euroland, stretching out over 10 years, if possible.
The biggest threat to Canadian banking system is actually American banking system. Since American banks have passed the emergency aid stage, I am less concerned now for North America, at least for 12 months. Canada has conservative banks, stable gov., competent bank regulators and AAA gov. bonds.
Even if hell falls eventually, but at least we can now joke at France/Italy for a while...
家园 Hint from Mr. Fruit The gov decides to roll out the 2nd stimulus plan regardless for the sake of employment or special interest groups. They need an excuse for propaganda purpose. The debt crisis is a window of opportunity.
We'll see.
家园 China can not rescue the who whole world even with another emergency package. It will be lucky if it could manage through the following global crisis with out an internal social implosion.
Chinese elites are sitting on a volcano of anger and mistrust. 723 is just one leakout of this strong negative feeling. As I emphasized several times on this forum, sharing wealth and benefits from growth is the right way to achieve "harmony" in china.
Do not take Mr. Fruit too seriously. High-level top gov. aide will not have time writing all those long long posts and leak out sensitive info.
One needs to know when to give technical advice, when to shut up.
家园 The elite class would rather fool the people once, twice...until waking them up.
家园 教授，问个问题，为什么还有钱耗在Italy/Spain上 明眼人都知道，四个小猪在等死
除了Italy/Spain本国人，谁会把钱投到他们的市场上
投资人，不应该挺理性的吗？怎么跟着风向说动就动？
家园 ST speculators could be any where.
As to the EU gov: rescue of PIIGs is the SAME as the rescue of the Euroland key banks. French banks are sitting a huge pile of sh*t from Greece, Spain and Italy...
家园 【原创】全球经济恢复基本面来看 法国经济增长和上季度比为0增长,美国0.7% 德国没看.估计也继续放缓,中国今天7月M2增长为14.7%预期15.8%货币政策估计继续偏紧.日本不用看了.日圆涨那么多,我不信他经济能恢复起来.全球经济基本面都不好.美国估计不能QE3.QE3了也没啥用.股票按这个来看应该继续跌吧.只是猛跌的可能性不大,涨涨跌跌,总方向继续跌.A股估计还有探底.看看吧