主题：实体经济的困局,是缺钱吗? -- cgangcm
家园 房子的价格跟房子周围的配套设施很有关系。 举几个例子，学区房，地铁房，政府房等等。他们之所以能有高溢价，都是得益于附近的教育资源，交通资源和政治资源。
把这个原理放大到城市也是类似的，一线大城市正是因为富集了太多的资源而催生了远高于周边地区的房价孤岛。比如燕郊这样地区的房价，就是因为不属于北京市区，所以尽管他离北京只有几百米远，房价依然发生断崖式的下跌。
稀缺的不是土地，而是依附于土地上的各种资源——从人口密度来讲，中国比日本要低很多，所以目前阶段，中国还不会面临土地稀缺的困境——新型城镇化与其说是盖房子，不如说是补齐房子的短板，比如学校，医院，超市，地铁等等。鬼城之所以变成鬼城，除了当地经济萧条之外，还有一个因素就是房子建太快，配套跟不上，生活不方便，居民入住的意愿比较低。
前几年的限购政策已经被证明对降低房价是无效的，本届政府也不再提限购政策，而是开始从增加房产的供给和健全房产的配置入手，我感觉是比较可行的道路。
家园 "毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞活经济確實有餘地 I know my language is wield and sorry for that, it is a "china model":
"毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞活经济確實有餘地, how to translate it into English? it is not a language issue, it is a 模型 issue; and this kind of "china model" is a challenge to everybody's brain.
now, "毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞汽车业经济和房产业经济
gpp 7% for how many years already?
despite of all kinds of capital waste and political corruption of 物理学奇迹 level;
but again, for whatever reasons, "majority" of Chinese people support TG's "毛林共识"政治模型下, 搞经济; 那咱继续搞(:), again, how to understand and translate in english this kind of 脑残 social science of "china model"?
this is why I keep saying, have your children study physics, English, yesterday, and you 搞 money under "china model", get it?
now, x&l wants to play the same game, and wants to play it better, do things such like "政府现在要做的就是培育汽车业和房产业的小米"
again, this is 林毅夫's copycat model, it will work to some extent, for industries such as 汽车业和房产业.
咱继续搞: 不搞冠军搞亚军
as I said, this "毛林共识"政治模型搞经济 underwritten by 林毅夫's copycat model will work to those low-to-mid tier industries, how far It can go? we don't know, but it looks like 搞活汽车业和房产业 which is basically 城镇化, another 10 years is a piece of cake.
then what is problem? the problem is likely 政治问题, I don't really know, just guessing.
fundamentally, TG top is forward looking, in terms of TGtop=information processing system for china, kind of like US capital market is a forward information processing system for the white world.
information processing is by its nature a fundamentally forward looking model.
TG top is looking beyond 搞活汽车业和房产业, or in trader's language, that part is already priced in.
what they are forward looking about? I don't know.
forward looking translated in Chinese:
今天搞王体超,爽啊, 明天搞李游泳?
家园 "这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"?! 1.
"集庆彪" raised this question, kind of indirectly.
now, logically speaking, I think TG top will not "把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"
again, "will"=we don't care about the past, we care about tomorrow.
then it is all about "毛林共识"政治模型
a challenge for TG top, fundamentally a change for Chinese nation.
kind of why "集庆彪" raised this question.
"这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上"?!
that may be a worldwide question.
get it, TG top?
2.
now, Chinese 人民 would not care that much, having been brain washed by "毛林共识" for how many years, now with its new version of china dream BS?
TG top would worry about whom?
TG top worry about the global capital market.
if TG top continues to play "毛林共识", then TG top has to pay a huge risk premium to capital, in terms of preventing capital out flow etc;
and in terms of 私有化, 用孩子喂狼;
now, capital market doesn't really care which way TG top is going, but they care what kind of options TG top has, and market will price them accordingly.
for TG top:
you either give me the damned 孩子, and I will take it;
or you guys as politicians get your ass out of my way: 宪政化, 军队国家化;
which way to go?
for now, X is testing out 用孩子喂狼.
3.
if not 用孩子喂狼, then let look at 宪政化, 军队国家化 option.
basically, in white's model, government as 守夜人, government will not get paid much, and you have to kiss capital market's ass just to get elected into office for limited terms, and not many 游泳 girl of national team for you to fxxk at your will...
as of today. it is almost impossible for TG top, or those next TG top to even think that way.
then, "集庆彪" may be right, and sing with me, "china dream".
家园 "政府守夜人"模型: 按信息分配, 不是按资本分配 to be brief
1.
more about "政府守夜人"模型
even TG top admits that in today's information sensitive and possibly quasi-quantum physics based global capitalist (or the name should be changed to information-capitalist) economy, 政府让市场 to manage 产业升级 etc, because fundamentally, even for superman TG top, it has everything, but no information, no models, to understand or manage business such as 产业升级;
therefore, a 理想环境 "政府守夜人"模型: government does not contribute much information at all for the system, therefore government should be paid only as a 守夜人.
and we know, everyday, even in mainland china, you have those information contributor becomes 资本家 overnight, with money saved from government, system can rewards those information contributor even more, often at high premium, and discounting any information lacking BS, whatever or whomever it may be. period.
2.
"毛林共识"政治模型
yes, uncle sam 亡我之心不死 (more of 政权更替 game than anything else, and even 政权更替 game is almost impossible for uncle sam to play it out, yes, never say never).
then, why Mao as a head trader shorted US and longed Soviet, and "all in", with his ass totally unhedged?
well, that was Mao's first international trade, understandable;
then, around year 2000, 中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡 opportunity, what 386 was doing then, fxxking that army hooker? understandable again?
with that "中华邦联 of tw and 新加坡", TG could build a huge Long China position 盘子 across almost entire Asian-pacific area, potentially a global game changer.
that is why I keep saying that Chinese nation as a whole lacks ALGO power, lacks a overall system to generate and grow ALGO power, in all the aspects of Chinese society.
"摸着石头过河" under "毛林共识"政治模型 is not an ALGO ("毛林共识"政治模型 is naked ass, still unhedged), it is not a modern system, it is a farmer's business model back in ancient china when Chinese farmers 靠天吃饭.
now, TG has "successfully" (?) modernized Chinese nation with Marxism and white technology, but china is still operating "毛林共识"政治模型, which is huge tax to the whole Chinese society, in terms of financial and all kind of 资源.
and most importantly perhaps, "毛林共识"政治模型 and with its all kinds of new "social science"derivatives of every day has been basically 脑残 Chinese nation.
overall, mainland china today=半封建, 半殖民地(Marxism and western technology), a global military power (global reach?) and economic power(global reach), and regional/ domestic political power?
kind of why Chinese elite send their money and kids mostly to US?
why? did we say TG top has been very smart? yes,
but TG is basically 内战内行 外战外行, and in today's globalized capital market, Tgchina's risk is at system level, and much higher compared to other major countries such as USA, as long as TG top is running "毛林共识"政治模型.
they have to.
those smart guys are not going to risk ass under "毛林共识"政治模型, naked ass, still unhedged and fundamentally a high risky model running the whole chines nation, "all in" again.
Unless, TG top can become a global market maker, have "毛林共识"政治模型 fxxled into white ass, all over the earth.
well, that may be a risk white has to hedge heavily, if 386 was not fxxking that army hooker and forgot to go to work the second day (:)
for now, it is a china dream, a domestic version inside GFW.
3.
why not "看准了, naked ass, all in"?
"witten1" did some posts on 测不准原理 and other qm posts;
basically, social system (a forward looking and a dissipative system) is even worse, even you manage to find a 边界 for the system, how about the degree of freedoms, and how about the coupling and interaction among those degree of freedoms?
I posted a little about how difficult it has been to build a qm model at 分子 (such as DNA) level: basically too many degree of freedoms, and coupling among them.
if you cannot really model a 分子 system, then how to model a human system full of TG and uncle sam and their troops(:)?
so the risk is inherent, and is hard to hedge, so what to do? never "all in", and go slow;
often Chinese people laugh at US system: how come you guys are so slow, if our uncle TG is here, he will get it done over night;
well, yes, you all in overnight, and when market opens the next morning, all those white wolves are staring at you with bloody eyes, with you in the center and totally naked.
is this where tgchina is now? kind of?
with Europe is zero growth, etc, tgchina's situation is not that bad at all, but never say never, and largely to hedge that nightmare scenario, X is likely continue to tighten up "毛林共识"政治模型.
""Information stays and moves around in a GR world, with "blackhole" included, 能量(信息)守恒, 霍金辐射=出来混总是要还的"
for now, 用孩子喂狼.
家园 "毛林共识"政治模型根本缺陷: 信息模型缺陷 1.
"信息处理本质上是一个物理过程"
孙昌璞 信息处理本质上是一个物理过程( ↑0 ↓0. 1 ... ustc website, 段路明郭光灿量子信息讲座.
http://www.cchere.com/article/3844744
"在时空中 度量结构（距离）的定义 是个物理问题"
changshou: 几何直观地介绍广义相对论的时空以及大爆炸模型
http://www.ccthere.com/alist/3659016
2.
does everybody have to understand 物理? of course not, but you have to have top universities with top physicists;
and that top 物理 (世界观 level) information has to find its way into other social science areas of society.
I have talked about hedging as a 物理世界观;
and another "物理世界观": as a modern society, you have to have multiple information processing systems, for them to compete and sometimes to discuss with each other, to fight the dark war of the next day, when market opens in the morning.
and those multiple information processing systems are embedded into different social political and economic organizations independent of each other, not "coupled", so each of them could contribute valuable information to the system, and independent of each other, reducing 相关 risk, etc.
in that sense, white's 普氏 system of economics and politics, is just as important in terms of risk hedging, and it is a "物理世界观" concept, which is very hard for Chinese nation to comprehend, a nation with a 文科世界观 of 5k years, now that with that 文科世界观 having been updated on to Marxism level, by TG, and it almost sounds like a science.
hedging, balancing and "go slow"(if you cannot quantify the risk, how to hedge?)=社会物理学公理 #1.
how much Chinese nation has been paying for Mao's 1 person trades of international macros since 1949?
and the tricky part: Marxism does offer a very insightful view of social economic system, with its many pieces really look like a science, even a beauty, to some extent.
汉密尔顿ABC,陈王奋起挥黄钺, hullo, they all offered some good views of Marxism as a model.
but, like anything, Marxism has to be hedged.
Marxism propaganda as a 宇宙真理 embodied in 伟光正?
did I say china is still a 半封建 society?
3.
Marxism as a model still commands power, and most white never get it, and TG in a way did get it.
what is even more tricky is Marxism as a model could work from now on as a headfake to TG: faking TG top into a over self confidence trap, etc, accumulating more cost and less benefit of Marxism modelling, and they don't know it.
when a position starts eating into you, you either close it out, cutting loss, or putting some hedge. you have to do something, you can not just sit over your fat ass doing 惯性运动.
in a social system, a small and local risk could get out of control and snowball into a global risk, eating anybody on its way, bloody.
again, that is a "物理世界观", and TG top is basically a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians.
specifically, that is quite bit of risk there for chairman X, he had very limited education, and full of Marxism 文科世界观, like many of his red gen II buddies.
so, you basically have a bounce of 文科世界观 politicians all "coupled" together running a 文科世界观 nation without any other real independent information processing system whatsoever?
omg(:).
this is why I keep saying that start your children in physics and English, yesterday.
Chinese social science is full of "risks"(:)
4.
TGchina is a "all in one" top heavy information processing system, and at TG top level only.
I would think that uncle sam's all kinds of teams have been running all kinds of models, with one goal:
how to break this damned top heavy uncle Tg with his pocket full of money, sitting atop of mountain of full of risks, and almost at the edge of falling apart?
if he falls from top, everybody gets a share of his money, sounds good?(:)
feeling his ass a little 痒痒 or pain, chairman X tells his troops: run the damned "毛林共识" ALGO, shoot anybody who dares stand up on our way, whomever he might be.
omg, watch out, baby(:)
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http://www.ccthere.com/alist/4048038
日本的情况， [ 集庆彪 ]
我只能从媒体中获知。这个国家对我来说是个迷。希望以后有机会去生活一段时间。
目前我在美国工作生活。就我在美国了解的情况来说，我还真没发觉这场危机对平民百姓的生活造成多大的影响。这应该归功于社会制度的完善合理。现在美国的经济复苏很快。回头看，2008年的美债危机很有点阴谋论的味道。有人说是美国主动刺破泡沫。在我看来，即便不是主动刺破，也绝没有刻意维护泡沫。
美国在2008年之所以放任泡沫破灭，从美国国内经济来说是为了调整结构，以迎接新一轮的科技产业革命。从这点上来看，美国的政治精英对国家的掌控是值得敬佩的。当我们中国人不屑地说美国是财团或资本控制的时候，请再思考一下（现在有很多人对事物的认识模式化，既浅薄又庸俗）。这一点有很多可以展开说的，但水平有限，时间也有限，还是留给牛人去评论吧。
从国际上来讲，我认为美国的决策层应该对危机的路线图有较清晰的掌控。现实的结果是，美国率先从危机中走出。日本已经、正在，欧洲马上要实行QE。而中国则陷入了巨大的资产泡沫，国民经济和社会政治被泡沫绑架。中国目前不得不小心地维护不让泡沫破灭（4万亿后，实际上中国已经打光了QE这张牌）。结合中国人口结构的改变，我很担心中国可能就此错过了产业升级的历史机遇。这个机遇是过去170几年中国无数的苦难和奋斗争取来的。我对这一认识并没有把握。历史会给出答案。
日本的利益，我感觉是和美国的利益在现阶段不谋而合的。日元大幅度贬值宽松其实和欧元区是一个道理。美国也希望这两个经济体能在现有的产业结构中挣扎生存，不要在新技术产业对美国造成太大的压力，而同时压制中国的产业升级。因为中国产业升级过程中主要的竞争对手是日本，韩国和德国。
可以说美日目前在经济竞争中处于非常有利的位置。而中国却要面对自己内部严重的政治和经济危机。中国现有的资产泡沫和虚高的人民币汇率给国内的权贵阶层以最大化的利益。而这一阶层目前掌控国家的经济金融政策。我的观察是这一阶层把自身的利益凌驾在民族和国家利益之上（这一点极其无耻，但同时又是中国的政治结构所决定的）。因此，在今后几年中中国有可能出现较大的经济危机。至于是什么时候，这要看全中国的资源还有多少可用于博弈的。中国政府无疑是目前世界上掌控资源最多的政府。但就像我在另外的一个帖子说的，别的国家赌钱，中国是在赌命。
基于这些考虑，以及习李上台后的种种措施，我以为我们需要警惕中国民族主义的威胁。说到美国的民族主义，我的体会是美国主流的思想是爱国，敬佩为国服务的军人。（插一小例：有一次下飞机时，机长说机上有几名现役军人，希望其他乘客让这些军人先下机。当这几个军人起立走向机舱口时，全体乘客和机务人员为他们鼓掌。）至于对政府，广大人民一贯持批评态度。
美国广大的受教育民众从小被教育要独立思考，珍惜自由和尊重生命。很难想像这样的国家会有失去理智的民族主义。更何况，现今的美国是世界民族的熔炉。各民族还在不断地融合过程中，很难产生高度统一的民族思想。这不同于二战前的美国，日本，德国，也有别于现今的中国。很遗憾地说，目前很大一部分中国人对人类文明的认识，对科学和民主的理解可能没有比54运动时有多大的提高。产生义和团和红卫兵的土壤并没有发生多大的变化。因此，我很悲观。另，我们现在的最高领导人的世界观是在文化大革命中形成的。这一点兄台有无察觉？
很高兴有机会和您交流。班门弄斧，见笑！
家园 TG top 为什麽要坚持"毛林共识"政治模型? this is speculative, and the Russian piece I don't know much.
and to be brief, out of my limited reading and memory
1.
Russia's "lesson"
since soviet falling apart, and for a while, Russian's 普京 actually supported Uncle Sam in 阿富汗, etc, trying kissing the ass of Uncle Sam, and what Uncle Sam has been doing in return? NATO has almost expanded all the way to Russian's border.
when commenting on Russian's recent invasion of Ukraine, many America commentators acknowledged that "we over fxxked 普京".
yes, Russian still got some kind of 核潛艇 advantages over Uncle Sam, and may not want to give it up, 裁军不合作, etc.
2.
now, china.
Assume one day TG decides to give up on "毛林共识"政治模型, and go "white" and go "普世" politically, what would uncle sam do?
headfake first: we all welcome china to join the world of peace and prosperity, etc;
and privately, by the way, you china guys don't need to have an unfriendly and oversized military power, impacting regional military equilibrium etc..
then, and if you china 裁军不合作 etc, we will figure out a way to squeeze you, just like what we did to Russia.
and a friend just visited Russia: terrible inflation, and everybody was asking everybody: how about your immigration visa?
Russian has been slowly bleeding and fading away?
3.
and if I remember correctly, Russian/soviet union have never had a direct war with Uncle Sam.
and of course, with Soviet help and for whatever reasons, Maochina had a bloody Korean war with Uncle Sam.
and yes, Mao shorted Uncle Sam, longed Soviet right after 1949 victory, and all in, zero hedge, long before Korean war.
May be Mao was thinking when starting Korean war: well, I already fxxked you uncle sam in 1949, orally, now I am going to do it real (:).
and yes, Maochina indirectly fought against Uncle Sam in Vietnam for how many years?
老美记仇, who does not?
particularly, as a market maker, 记仇 is your job, and you have to make the other side pay you back zillion times more, so he remembers, and market remembers.
otherwise, you are not a market maker.
4.
as said, Uncle Sam will keep playing headfake to trick Uncle Tg, and Uncle Tg will never give up hope of buying out Uncle Sam by 用孩子喂狼, while 坚持"毛林共识"政治模型 algo running all the time, 24/7, they got money, and human troops of all kinds, just do it, at whatever cost.
and Uncle Sam will take Uncle Tg's 孩子, so Uncle Tg will get weaker and weaker, then one day when market opens in the morning, all the white and yellow wolves are right there, again staring at Uncle Tg with its ass naked at center, all with red eyes:
血债要用血来还, N年不晚.
never say never.
now, does TG top have a model for that N年 moment?
or 摸石头过河 again?
more likely than not: once a farmer, a farmer forever.
TG top started as a group of super smart farmers, and they 自学 Soviet 党校 textbooks and played their trades very smartly during world war II, and took over mainland china in 1949.
now their children, red gen II are running the show.
and it seems that majority of Chinese people of all social ranks respect their TG top very well.
习大大?
why not? a society's elite is always the elite of that society.
相对论方程一阶性.
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家园 我觉得城镇化是关键点 房子现在是核心需求，有些人需要新购，有些人需要改善。但是，北京的房子大家买不起，鄂尔多斯的大量积压没人买。
城镇化的模式非常重要。现在北京这种摊大饼式的发展，人口越来越多，大家都往里面挤，城里头土地资源有限，城外交通压力又受不了，到外地机会少，结果大家都熬着，生活质量不高，消费需求也出不来。
家园 中国现在的钢铁产能每年达到7亿多吨 14日举行的2014第三届中国钢铁技术经济高端论坛上，第十届全国政协副主席、中国工程院原院士、中国金属学会理事长徐匡迪表示，在亏损和低利的情况下，企业应该通过组织结构与工艺创新，降本增效,从追求产量和设备利用系数，转向低成本生产和经营。受市场制约，全球钢铁业产能过剩已成定局。徐匡迪说，中国钢铁工业在十年内，新增产能7亿多吨，即使内需市场尚存，但因为投资债务导致财务成本过高，成为产能过剩诸多行业中，经济效益最差的行业。
中钢协数据显示，今年上半年，列入协会财务指标统计的88家企业集团，实现利润74.80亿元，同比增加42.76亿元。但钢铁主营业务仍亏损6.6亿元，已连亏11个季度。此外，88家企业中，有25家亏损企业，亏损额超过76个亿。
今年以来，在国家严控新增钢铁产能下，钢铁投资出现同比下降，但投资额度仍较大，这必将陆续形成新的产能。“企业只有保持产量，才能保证企业‘流动性’支付，包括还贷、人力、成本等，而现行银行借贷是看企业现金收入的多少，在此前提下就可以‘借新还旧’。”徐匡迪说。
他认为，中国钢铁产能出现过剩，既有经济增长过度依靠投资拉动等外部原因的影响，也存在多重内部原因。
也就是说人均每年要增加半吨，即使能保持10年，那10年过后怎么办？
如果按你的算法，世界上有一大半人消费还低于中国，那样是不是表明中国的钢铁产业永远有消费对象？你也知道这是不可能的。
家园 您提的问题其实美国和日本也遇到了， 解决的方法还是要落在技术进步的身上。
美国进入新世纪之后，互联网泡沫破碎，产业发展似乎找不到方向了，那些游离资金就开始炒房地产，最终引发了次贷危机。不过在这个沉闷的时期，乔布斯率领苹果异军突起，借助全新的技术手段，包括电容触控屏和ios智能系统，还有强大的硬件配置重新定义了手机，成功在全球掀起了一股换机风潮，引领了手机行业的又一个春天，这是淘汰落后产能和创造新需求的经典案例。
十年之后，当中国的电力和钢铁消费都趋于饱和时，增量消费的时代宣告落幕，但是取而代之的将是替代消费的时代。就如同手机行业的智能革命一样，汽车将要经历电动车和无人车革命，家电要经历物联网革命，房产要经历智能家居革命。
可以说，智能化和大数据的翅膀在手机领域引起的小小振动，借由移动互联网逐渐兴起之势，将会演变成席卷生活各个角落的巨大风暴，并带动一大波的汽车和房产更新换代需求，这就是第二个十年降临时，中国制造业可以大展拳脚的机遇空间。
如果再把目光投向第三个十年呢？这已经超出了我的技术视野范围，不过我也有一些模糊的技术猜想，比如现在仍然处于概念研究和技术探索阶段的体感控制，裸眼3D，现实增强（AR）等等，一旦实用化，则虚拟现实会达到以假乱真的地步，黑客帝国的世界也不再遥远，那将会对现阶段的人类娱乐方式和感官体验带来革命性的颠覆与重塑，这一阵换代浪潮又可以管十年。
这后面的想象有些天马行空，不过手机，汽车，家电和住宅通过巨大物联网连成一体的愿景应该是可行的，互联互通的生活近在咫尺，想想就让人不由自主地感到战栗。所以我常常庆幸自己能生于这个伟大的变革时代，亲眼目睹和亲身参与这个气势恢宏的社会进化历程。