主题：【原创】 又一个卖空对象 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 【原创】 又一个卖空对象 Motley Fool发来的免费东东提到两个公司可以卖空，一个就是以前提到的百度，可惜它的put最远只有到明年三月份的，虽然在那以前下跌的可能性可大，但是有没有95%的confidence interval，那可就难说了。另外一个却比百度还要疯涨，put有到08年1月才到期的，市盈率目前到了247！即使到下一个财年，P/E预计也要差不多95! 而市值接近净资产的20倍, 是销售额的11倍多！从这些数据来看，这个简直就是互联网泡沫的翻版。这个公司就是CRM(交易代码），salesforce.com，搞软件的，领域就是custom relationship management，这个行业没有垄断的一说，估计竞争少不了，有没有那位是这个行业的专家，可以来个insider分析？
俺估计现在股市已经有高处不胜寒的苗头，欲涨乏力，一旦股市牛气(傻气）散尽，大熊开始肆掠的时候，这种股票will get slaughtered，有可能从目前近40元跌到两年前的低点：15元以下，即使如此，Forward P/E仍然有35! 所以跌到更低价位也是有可能的。
Yahoo中的相关数据如下：
Market Cap (intraday): 4.48B
Enterprise Value (11-Oct-06)3: 4.23B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 247.64
Forward P/E (fye 31-Jan-08) 1: 94.93
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.90
Price/Sales (ttm): 11.33
Price/Book (mrq): 19.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 10.66
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 120.356
欢迎讨论，最好有点理由地说。
家园 bot some jan 08 35 put today @4.7, try my luck. :)
家园 Interesting IV approaching 60%. I'm tempted.
One thing we want to watch out though is any potential buyout - or even just some speculation around it.
家园 In this case you can try straddle, i.e. buy call and put at the same time. You put more money in, but it's safer.
不懂，瞎说的。
家园 can be too expensive With such a high IV, a straddle might be too expensive. I had other ideas on some potential spread plays, but need to think it through.
家园 Actually a great idea All techniques eventually are used to solve one problem: the trade-off between potential profit and risk. Often that comes to solving the problem of timing.
When you are sure of the long term but not the near-term direction of a stock with a high beta, straddle probably will help you a lot. Of course, it will take more money to play as you have to buy a little insurance
In CRM's case, I'd rather simply buy long term puts. If it is up for acquisition, those insiders would not sell so many so fast. Why would they not make more $$ when they know they can?
家园 good point! I am kind of wondering if there is any value for someone else to buy it out. This kind of play is not like Youtube for sure.
What do you mean by IV?
家园 Implied Volatility Well they're certainly more concrete than youtube - they have a solid business model that's actually making money. Of course the stock is far overvalued by now, but the concept and the model can definitely be strategically appealing.
It's still an interest stock to follow (and thanks for bringing up the idea by the way). I'm just suggesting that there is probably no hurry to get in, since it's apparently still in the momentum as of this morning.
家园 Youtube is a leader in its kind, that's probably why Google is willing to pay a high price.
CRM has been around since 1999 - 7 years is a long tme for them to prove. Yeah it is making money, just not enough to justify the price. It appears to me they are in a very competitive market where profitability will deteriorate as economy is slowing down. Maximizer seems losing money in the recent quarter.
Sell into the strength and buy into the weakness - seems to me it is good time to bet when it is going stronger. Of course, accumulating along the way will reduce the risk.
家园 08年1月的put could be expensive at some point you might just as well short it.
家园 But it'll give u a sure win The problem with directly shorting one stock is the huge risk coming from a short-term squeeze - meaning momentum traders could take advantage of you by pushing the stock price 30% higher in one day and you will be forced to buy the stocks back. Hence the risk is higher.
A long term put gives you a lot of room to play, as long as you know the high flying stock price cannot sustain over such a period. And more importantly, it takes less money to play options than the underlying stock, and often much higher return, e.g. 100% to 500% for a period of one year or so.
Take CRM as an example: if you short the stock today, the potential risk is when the stock price goes up 30% (about $12 dollars), you will lose $12/share from forced buying back. And that could happen anytime, e.g. in weeks or a couple of months as now the market is in the so-called suckers' rally mood. I will not feel comfortable with the probability of winning versus losing. But if you buy the long term puts expiring in Jan 2008, you will have 15 months to see if the stock price go down, the lower the more profits you will get. For strike price of $35, you pay only $5.10, and your maximum risk is to lose $5.10 per share, less than the potential $12 loss from direct shorting. If the stock price drops below $15 at any point, you will make 300%+ profit (not counting the time value). Bear in mind: the probability of this stock to go down in the next 15 months (a long term) will be very high based upon observations of the fundamentals of this stock as well as of the stock market, and relatively higher than a short term like 3 months.
So to play puts, you will have less cost, high probability of winning and likely higher profits, what will be your choice?
家园 set a stop then if you are worried about margin call. Then short again when the squeeze is over. Not like these option values don't change during the squeeze.
One thing about option is that it can expire worthless. I think most do. I now only write options to protect my stock gain. I bought options long before hoping to hit the jackpot but lost pretty miserably. But again, I was treating trading as gambling at the time. Do anybody know how many people got rick buying Enron puts?
BTW, I didn't check the price, but 01/08 $35 put for $5.10 is pretty cheap at the current stock price of close to $40. Where is the time value?
家园 可不可以解释一下stop 怎么操作？先谢拉。