主题：加拿大信托基金：黎明前的曙光 -- 倥偬飞人
家园 加拿大信托基金：黎明前的曙光 去年10月31日，加拿大保守党政府在没有任何咨商的情况下，违背竞选承诺，宣布要对income trust 征税，直接造成了这个板块市值大幅缩水数百亿加币，给投资人造成了巨大损失，对加拿大经济和政府收入都构成了负面影响。
最近，自由党和魁人政团宣布将对保守党决策过程展开聆讯，他们的立场是将征税时间延后十年，对石油天然气类royalty trust免征税。由于这两个党派目前是第二、三大政党，而且保守党是少数党政府，这项新政策可能无法通过立法；今年也很可能重新大选，自由党则可能重新执政，翻盘的希望还是不小的。如果你持有加拿大的信托基金，可以助一臂之力，免费加入Canadian Association of Income Trust Investors，发出你的声音，给保守党一个教训！如果成功翻盘，在目前每月派发红利的基础上，基金价格本身有可能翻倍，回报更加理想！具体消息可以参考下面的连接：
At the current price level, the dividends from income trusts are amazingly good. If nothing changes, I believe we will still have very good return in the next four years and beyond. However, we may enjoy a strong tail wind if the income trust tax can be averted, and the chance of winning is great - we have liberals and the quebec party on our side, plus a coalition of strong powers from energy, financial industry and more:
[URL=]http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070115.wtrustttt0115/BNStory/Business/home [/URL]
We will have a greater chance to win if everyone of us to raise our voice. Be a winner and join Canadian Association of Income Trust Investors here: [URL=]https://www.caiti.info/index.html [/URL]
If we win (that's for sure :-)), our income trust portfolio will easily double from current levels, and yes, in addition to the fat dividends being paid out every month!
Best of luck to all!
本帖一共被 1 帖 引用 (帖内工具实现)家园 这个时候还能不能买 刚才看了一下thunder的网站，股票跌到了5.21，红利跌到了0.09，这个时候还能不能买。
家园 今天我恰恰买了 因为在这之前已经在高价位卖掉了，派息除权之后再买回来，这个价差比红利还高。放心吧，过不了几天肯定又升回去了，到时候再倒腾不迟。本来不想做swing，但是这种价格浮动已经成了规律，不赚白不赚，相当于派发红利翻倍都不止
至于派息下调的问题，实际上由于天然气价格下调，减少派发红利做对公司保留现金作运营用途有好处，而且对基金价格影响不大，为什么？是因为价格已近净资产值，没有多少下跌的空间。如果你观察了day.un, aav, vng.un等等，减少派息之后，价位都变化不大。
家园 如果3月份大选，信托基金命运如何？ 大选对信托基金的upside影响可能非常大。众所周知，自由党和魁人政团都是主张给信托基金新税松绑的，而保守党和新民主党则相反，支持新税案。大选的结果如果是前者执政，新税案不会通过，或者要做大幅修改才可以通过，这个修改应该是有利于信托基金的；如果是后者执政，那就是新税案可能会通过并实施。
李嘉诚说过，作投资99%的时间要考虑风险，剩下的1%考虑回报。所以让我们先看看风险所在：现在市场早已经消化了新税案这个负面消息，大多跌到净资产（注意不含油气资源储藏量的价值）附近的水平，派息也在油价和天然气价格稳定的情况下可以维持相对的稳定性。即使大选有利于保守党，新税案获得通过，那也没有什么大不了的，现在的价格水平也跌不到哪儿去，每个月收红利就是了。
保守党目前的支持率已经落后于自由党，但是都不到40%，而新民主党和魁人政团差距不大，整体上客观地来讲还没有那一边都没有很清楚的优势，这种情况下大选，可能还是产生一个少数党政府。如果自由党票数领先，那有可能和新民主党或者魁人达成合作，掌握政权。从整体的政治目标来看，保守党和其他三个党的差距是最大的，尤其是环保和阿富汗问题。所以自由党大选后组成少数党政府的机会，高于保守党。这也可能就是为什么保守党着急，频频采用揭短抹黑的电视广告打击自由党的原因，可惜效果并不想他们希望的那样。
所以从政治层面上来讲，大选之前保守党恐怕无法三读通过新税案，而大选之后的结果，新税案的前景并不好，所以这对信托基金来讲，还是一个相对有利的前景。既然没有多少下跌的空间，自然就不必担心，而上涨的前景还是依然看好的。
家园 飞人兄，能否推荐一些在美国上市的加拿大信托基金？ 家园 推荐不敢，做个参考吧 在美国上市的一般都是规模比较大一些的基金，数量比只在加拿大上市的少多了，一般价格相对而言也贵一些，如果只是简单的收红利，买加拿大上市的会合算一些。
这里可以找到几只
AAV小一些，但是明显价格偏低，不含油气资源价值的话，现在价格只相当于净资产的1.09倍，红利目前是每月0.15加元/单位，相当于年分红14.4%左右：
如果加上油气资源的净现金值，每单位的价值在30美元左右。刚刚融资一个亿加币，大概合10.80美元/单位，有足够的现金进行运营，下跌空间是有限的，而考虑到亚省油砂开发会使用大量的天然气，目前占到当地总生产量的1/3，10年后会增长4倍，也就是目前的全部天然气都还不够油砂开采用的，所以不必担心销路和价格问题。石油价格长线来看仍然坚挺，大型油田纷纷过了峰值生产期，加上中东的紧张局势，突破100美元都是有可能的。美国经济放缓当然对油价有一定的压力，但是今年的预测估计接近60美元/桶。
不管怎么样，比起那些价格很高、分红很少的所谓GROWTH股票，这种基金还是适合每个月希望拿一些现金来用的投资人，比如说你lease一辆车，每个月500元的话，你放不到5万美元在这个基金里面，每个月红利就足够支付lease payment。如果lease到期，再接着lease一辆新车，如此循环，就可以一直开新车了。相比之下拿5万现金买辆车，3年之后车的价值就折旧掉一半，再过3年就差不多没有了，所以买车就不划算了。当然前提是基金分红相对稳定甚至增加，从历史数据来看，这都不是不可能的，不少基金连分红带资本增值，年回报40-50%都是有的。
家园 thanks a lot
家园 送花.祝您和各位河友新年快乐,万事如意. 家园 回花！谢谢！祝你和大家猪年大发！
家园 自由党政策：将信托基金的新税限制在10% 自由党最新出台的建议是将新税限制在10%，而不是保守党提议的31%。如果自由党能够重新执政，新税将大幅减少，重而使得信托基金可以挽回2/3的市值损失。
家园 可以到这儿看看信托基金的基本情况 这下面是我收到的免费news letter中的内容，觉得可以说清楚income trust的来龙去脉，供有兴趣的朋友参考参考：
Remember when investors could retire and live well on a modest nest egg? Remember when taxes were only 15% a year, and when you didn’t have to worry about losing your shirt before the closing bell?
That way of life has gradually been taken from you. But this letter is going to bring it all back, courtesy of the Canadian government. They've invented a whole new kind of investment, one that's pulling hundreds of billions of US dollars across the border into Canada today.
In a nutshell, Canadian Income Trusts are a brilliant structure that allows a business to avoid taxes--all taxes. That’s one pretty obvious reason they’re so popular.
The other big reason is that by Canadian law, nearly all the earnings from a trust business must flow right through to its investors, which in this case means you. You no longer have to settle for the bread crumbs we call “dividends” here in the South 50!
Here’s how trusts work up North: A trust uses what it receives from its product sales to pay general expenses and service any debt, and it also sets aside a little bit for exploration or development. Trusts are very careful to set aside no more than 15% of their gross profits, so at least 85% normally goes directly to your mailbox every month. In other words, you usually get a check for about 85% of the true earnings. Sometimes it’s near 100%!
Life doesn’t get any smoother than that. Canadian income trusts aren't structured for the benefit of their CEOs, but their shareholders. What a concept!
Canadian Income Trusts: A Screaming "BUY" Opportunity
On Halloween day, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty decided that no more companies should be allowed to convert into trusts and that virtually all existing trusts should lose their tax-exemption starting in 2011.
We’ve seen this tax-grab before. The previous Labor government proposed taxing income trusts a year earlier, but ran into such heavy opposition that it was forced to shelve the idea.
Will this latest scare simply be a repeat of 2005’s false alarm? I can’t promise you anything, but we certainly have plenty of reasons not to panic.
First of all, the proposed legislation still needs to be approved by Parliament. All the minister has done so far is to file a notice of intent to table a bill in Parliament. There are no details on when this will happen.
Second, since the proposal provides a four-year grace period before existing trusts are taxed, current trusts will continue to pay their fat distributions.
Third, the proposed law as currently written might never see the light of day. Four years is an eternity in politics. It gives Canadian authorities plenty of time to allow certain businesses back into the income trust fold. (I’m convinced that what they really want is to restrict the format to the natural resource companies it was intended for--not to kill the trust format altogether.)
A year from now, I bet we’ll barely remember this Halloween scare.
And look on the bright side: It’s hard to lose if you buy in now. Trust prices have fallen in the face of uncertainty, giving you a great entry point and super-sized yields. Trusts that were yielding 10% the day before Halloween are now paying 12%. The actual businesses underlying these trusts haven’t changed a bit. Conservatively run, high-quality income trusts are as solid as ever, and I have no doubt they'll prevail for years to come.
Remember, the current yields still hold until 2011. So the owners of Precision Drilling, just to pick one of my favorites, will still receive 13.2% on their capital for the next four years.
And even if they're taxed four years from now, these companies will still be paying yields that dwarf your options in the Dow and S&P. Dozens of trusts now yield more than 10%, some as high as 21%.
Bottom line: There are still plenty of trusts worth buying and holding for the long haul as their businesses grow.
家园 民调显示：55%的人反对保守党 保守党多个方向都受到大多数加拿大人的批评，包括环保、反恐战争等等，前景不妙。
自由党还在继续活动，听证会还将继续进行下去。到目前听证会至少显示：加拿大一般公司的实际税率只有6.5%, 还比不上信托基金相关的税率高。而对石油/天然气类基金免除新税以及延长新税征收的时间还是有空间讨论的。自由党希望借此机会打击保守党，而同时就会担负修改新税提案的义务。
家园 今日开始听证会 早上看了一部分live播出。显然保守党的财长没有什么新的东西要说的，而所用的所谓"tax leakage"计算方法简单得可笑，简单比较一个信托基金和一个普通公司的公司税方面的差别，就说有500million的税收流失，完全没有计算个人收入税方面的差别 - 难怪先前不肯拿出来给记者看。需要澄清的是：虽然信托基金在公司税上获得减免，但是派发的红利到了个人手上是要交税的，有的虽然是放在RRSP户口，但是并没有免税，而只是推迟到到老年时，取出钱来用一样要打税。至于CAPITAL LOSS部分给国家税收和个人财产带来的损失，就无言以对，无非是转移对象，大力攻击反对党如何如何。独立专家的证词，显然也对保守党不利，因为计算各方面的因素，自保守党宣布要征税以后，国家和个人财富也损失170亿加元，这和保守党声称要挽回的税收损失区区5个亿完全不成比例，更可笑的是，即使是这5个亿所谓TAX LEAKAGE也未必站的住脚，也有专家认为，信托基金不但没有造成整体上的税收损失，反而是增加的。
除了保守党和新民主党，自由党和魁人政团以及独立的专家都是反对保守党的新税法。保守党和新民主党这种右和左的结合，真是所谓同床异梦，strange bed-fellows。
如果担心其他大型公司转成信托基金，完全没有必要对现有基金下如此重手，直接叫停新的基金就行了。保守党这种做法，就是给感冒的人截肢，真是愚蠢之极。既然是少数党政府，而且新法案还没有通过，大选有可能在预算案不通过时触发，前景只会向好的方面转变。
