五千年(敝帚自珍)

主题:加拿大信托基金:黎明前的曙光 -- 倥偬飞人

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        • 家园 The numbers could both be right

          The numbers could both be right, but referring to different trusts: US$9.9 for AAV, and C$5.5 for THY.UN. I mentioned these two in my previous posts.

      • 家园 CAITI的尖锐问题

        The Canadian Association of Income Trust Investors has raised a number of questions, the answers to which could make Flaherty’s the “Tax Fairness? Plan”:

        What are the policy reasons behind this year's subtle and yet profound change that will permit Canada's largest pension plans to own the economic equivalent of Income Trusts in their private equity portfolios and not be subject to the same double taxation that would be paid by average Canadians in their individual [Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), the equivalent of the US IRA] under your tax proposal?

        How is something that is being denied the average Canadian saving for retirement, on the basis of its presumed negative effect on Ottawa's tax base, be allowed to persist for the exclusive benefit of those in the public civil service and others so advantaged?

        Do you agree with the 2005 Consultation Paper which revealed that businesses under the corporate model paid, on average, taxes at the rate of 6.3 percent in 2004?

        Is it fair to say that if these same earnings were paid out from an income trust to Canadian individual investors, then taxes would be paid to Ottawa at the higher rate of personal taxation, which the study indicates is 38 percent on average?

        On this intuitive level, how can income trusts cause tax leakage?

        Has the Department of Finance come to a determination yet as to the cause behind the unexplained surge in personal taxes reported on October 27, 2006 (immediately prior to your Halloween announcement) in an article by Steve Chase of the Globe and Mail entitled “Tax cash floods in, leaving experts at a loss.” Which starts by saying: "There's a mystery bedeviling the Finance Department: Canadians are sending far more personal income taxes to Ottawa than expected--and nobody knows exactly why. Personal income taxes collected--the single biggest source of Ottawa's revenue--are up nearly 11 per cent in the first five months of this fiscal year compared with last year.”

        “The puzzle also appears to play a role in the massive CD6.7 billion budget surplus Ottawa posted for the five months of this fiscal year--CD2 billion ahead of where finances stood at the same time last year.”

        Given that the five assertions of the Ways and Means Motion, which is the enabling legislation, are based on readily quantifiable concepts, when do you intend to provide Parliament, and in turn Canadians, with any of the supporting studies and analyses that provide the justification for these far reaching measures? The methodologies and assumptions behind this body of work are as important, if not more important, than the numbers themselves. To date no such information has been provided.

        What is the specific section of the Access to Information Act you are relying upon and the underlying reasons the government is invoking to justify the denial of access to information by Gordon Tait who was seeking full disclosure of your tax leakage analysis, to the extent such studies even exist?

        Is the NDP [New Democratic Party], which to date has supported you in this policy to double tax income trusts in RRSPs, been provided with any more information on your assertion of tax leakage than you have made available to the public at large? Have they at any time requested any such additional information?

        We understand that NDP MPs have, during the past few days, written to their concerned constituents, in what appears to be form-type correspondence, stating: “I am confident that government estimates of future tax leakage are solid.”

        What is the basis for their confidence, since it could only have come from your office? Have other elected representatives either within your own party or from other parties sought or received such publicly undisclosed information?

        Do you believe the comments of the Governor of the Bank of Canada on income trusts that were made in October 2006 that were prefaced by the words, "limited evidence suggests" are more or less authoritative than the work of a major accounting firm whose study of December 7, 2006, is based on an exhaustive study of all 250 income trusts and evaluates their contribution to the Canadian economy?

        We note that the CEO of Manulife Financial has been called as a witness. Is this witness representing the interests of a multibillion Canadian "corporation" proper or as the marketer of products which it sells as principle and which have to compete directly with Income Trusts for market "shelf space"? Products such as life annuities and the heavily promoted and advertised proprietary product known as "Income Plus," again sold by Manulife Financial as principle rather than as agent. Income trusts are issued by issuing Canadian businesses to fund their business activities and are purchased by Canadians through agents without promotional advertisement.

        These are just some of the unanswered questions that Canadians who are affected by your policy have at this point in time on the "debate" on income trusts. We thank the committee members in advance for asking them on behalf of these negatively affected Canadians.

    • 家园 等着看保守党的笑话

      对患了感冒的人,保守党大夫的治疗方案是:截肢! 然后还死活不给你看它是怎么看病的:

      外链出处

      保守党的末日就要来了,首先它在听证中将至少先失去政治分。

      • 家园 Steven Harper,

        “You are too young, too naive.“

        哈哈!

        • 家园 投资和政治密不可分

          保守党如此表现,连当初支持他们这一决策的人也大失所望,毕竟这里的老百姓是真的有政治素养,不象台湾的死忠傻帽。财政部这种死硬做法,在台湾可能还让死忠者叫好叫爽,在这儿就是自掘坟墓。俺对新税法不通过的看法更加乐观了,对aav也是利好,可以开始买calls了,strik 10 /Aug 07很便宜,还是分步建仓。

          • 家园 Typical attitude

            from former supporters:

            walter clare from Merrickville, Ontario, Canada writes: I believe that this is the first time a G&M thread on the income trust subject has had this much posting without one of the conservative apologists showing up here trying to spin the information in a positive light for the government.

            I think even their most ardent supporters, which would have included me not that long ago, have become disgusted by their cavalier attitude and indifference toward everyday Canadians. I am kind of proud of the way Canadians have stood tough against the calculated arrogance of this failed government. It is time for them to go.

            http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070123.wtrustssy0123/CommentStory/Business/home

    • 家园 最新消息:议会聆讯定在2月2日

      今天议会金融委员会投票决定,对保守党的income trust tax 政策进行六小时聆讯,时间定在2月2日,也就是两个星期之后。将召集专家和保守党政府有关官员对决策依据进行辩论。

      另据报道,民调显示大概有4百万加拿大人直接或者间接地受到保守党新政策的负面影响。

      最大反对党自由党以及魁人政团无疑想通过聆讯暴露保守党决策的无知和浅陋之处,而事实也确实是如此。反对党可以借此争取更多选民支持。当然,如果聆讯结果对保守党不利,新税政策可能无法通过立法,或者至少将做重大修订,将4年缓冲期改为10年,以及可能将THY这样的royalty trusts免除新税。

      即使保守党不加修订通过了立法,我相信THY仍然是很好的投资,25%的红利到手,天然气/石油前景无碍,天塌不下来。

    • 家园 分享一个值得买入的信托基金

      虽然面临着诸多负面因素,如政府征税新政策、天然气和石油价格下滑、经济走缓等等,这正好说明入市的黄金定律:买入别人不要的忽视的好冬冬,而Thunder Energy (THY.UN,或者THY-UN.TO/YAHOO)就是这样一个很好的投资:利空出尽,价格已经触底,现金红利高,反弹前景很好。

      THY是一个相对小型的石油天然气基金,07年目标日产9500桶当量左右,相当于一个中型公司,天然气占到62%。按照行规计算其价格应该在$9/UNIT以上,而目前价格只有$5.6,月派$0.12,相当于年息25.7%!净资产约在$5.2左右,这个是不计入储量的价值的。

      这个基金的管理团队比较有能力,尤其是去年第三季度,当天然气价格低迷,其他基金纷纷亏损的时候,他们居然还是盈利,这估计归功于他们对冲风险的策略,超过一半的产量都有价格保底在$7以上。

      天然气的前景比石油还要好,为什么呢?因为第一,天然气不易运输,中东便宜的天然气无法以经济的成本运输到北美大陆;第二,北美天然气价格虽然最近受温和天气影响下跌,但是需求还是很大的,新建房屋和发电大多采用天然气,因为干净污染少,而供应能力下降了17%;第三,加拿大大规模开采油砂,需要大量使用天然气,目前已经达到日耗17亿立方英尺的规模,而油砂开采还仅仅才开了个头。THY大部分天然气生产,都在油砂最旺的阿省。

      一方面可以每个月收红利,另外一旦保守党新政策无法通过立法,基金价格即可大幅反弹。即使新法通过,也要四年之后才开始征税,而这四年之内THY如果派息不变,可以让你拿回全部本金,高枕无忧。

      • 家园 有点疑问

        感觉你的推荐不错,但有个问题想请教,THY.UN现在每年只赚0.07,要是每个月派息0.09分,它是如何维持的?先谢了!

        • 家园 THY去年9月才开始上市

          这个一年赚0.07的数据有点奇怪,stockwatch上面有这个数,但是不一定准确。06Q3的数据是0.17,当时天然气价格只有4-5美元,能取得这个成绩已经比很多基金好了,象DAY.UN, VNG.UN都是亏损。我就是根据这个表现觉得THY其实更好。从Q4到现在石油天然气价格还不错,而且HEDGE了一半左右,今年的数据应该好看不少,派息1.08应该没有问题,CANACCORD预计PAYOUT RATIO在80%左右。

          这里是Q3的相关数据公布:

          Quarterly moneys from operations totalled $18.8-million (39 cents per unit basic, 36 cents per unit diluted) compared with $35-million in third quarter 2005 (79 cents per unit basic and diluted). The quarter-over-quarter decline reflects a 37-per-cent decrease in natural gas prices at the wellhead to an average $5.79 per thousand cubic feet, a 2-per-cent reduction in average oil and NGL prices at the wellhead to $68.51 per barrel and a 20-per-cent decline in average production.

          For the nine months, moneys from operations totalled $60.5-million ($1.28 per unit basic, $1.16 per unit diluted). The decline in the average natural gas price was less severe for the nine months at 19 per cent with the trust averaging $6.36 per thousand cubic feet, offset by a 7-per-cent increase in average production to 9,511 barrels of oil equivalent per day and a 3-per-cent growth in the average oil and NGL price at the wellhead to $64.18 per barrel.

          The trust recorded net income of $8.3-million for the quarter (17 cents per unit basic and diluted) versus $7.7-million in third quarter 2005 (18 cents per unit basic and 17 cents per unit diluted). For the nine months, net income totalled $30.7-million (65 cents per unit basic and 60 cents per unit diluted), a substantial increase from the $15.6-million recorded for the nine months of 2005. The increase is attributable to, among other factors, future tax recoveries due to the federal and provincial governments enacting significant future tax deductions in second quarter 2006.

          • 家园 数据更坏

            先再次谢谢您的回复。

            今天再查www.tsx.com上面关于thy.un的基本数据,更不好了,每share变成亏$2.07。结合它的快速走跌趋势,似乎应该有些原因。我的问题是,关于这个亏$2.07的结果,有其他地方得到更详细的信息吗?谢谢!

            • 家园 这个要具体分析一下

              主要的数据可以看这儿

              外链出处

              账面上的亏损主要是向下修正储存量引起的,这个部分固然是损失,但是对现金部分没有什么影响。

              实际上,石油天然气的生产方面一直是正的现金流,

              Funds from operations for 2006 were $79.0 million ($1.65 per unit basic; $1.51 per unit diluted),

              这可以说明THY还是有能力继续派发每个月0.09/UNIT的红利,今年的能源价格石油方面不太好说,如果打仗的话肯定大涨,中国也在建立战略石油储备,美国也在增加,还是有一定支持的,经济疲弱是一个负面因素,但是估计也就是几个百分点的变化。天然气属于UTILITY概念,加上Alberta省oil sands开发有增无减,天然气价格今年不必太担心。

              最近的Fairbone合并案,象THY这样被收购的话,还是能够在$4-5元范围内的,现在股市狂跌,难免有些人MARGIN CALL来,不计成本往外抛。

              当然从整个股票组合的角度来看,任何一个股票都不要占太大的比重。

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